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Week 11 vs. ASU v2

Cave_Johnson

R.I.P. Bob Saget
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Appalachian State this time, back at home after two of the worst collapses I have ever seen. And I have been watching the Seahawks this season so that tells you something right there. Basically these last two weeks have proven three things.

1. The Vandal offense is good enough to win games. Regardless of the quality of the last two defenses, you should not lose two in a row averaging over 45 points per game.
2. The Vandal defense has no depth at this point. The starting 11 at the beginning of the year were solid, probably as good as any other squad in the Sun Belt. After that they have a bunch of freshman and JC transfers with no real experience. When several of those starters go down to injuries, several more back-ups go down, and you have 2-3 guys getting significant playing time on D who played offense at the beginning of the season, you're going to have problems. Oh, and a first year D-coordinator running a new defensive scheme. Some of the credit for the Vandal D's first half performance last week has to go to the South Alabama coaching staff however. I don't know if they just wanted a challenge or if they are really just that stupid and watched no film on Idaho, but it took them until 5 minutes left in the first half to figure out that they just have to run a spread offense at a fast-paced tempo to beat Idaho. This is something that a two year old cold have told you if they had watched the Vandals play all year. No idea how USA didn't figure it out sooner.
3. The coaches have very clearly been playing not to lose. Running the ball up the gut with over a minute left before half in the USA game, running out the clock with the game tied and 40+ seconds left in the NMSU game, and basically giving up on 3rd and anything longer than 12.

Don't get me wrong, this team has obviously improved from last year, but this is frustrating as shit to watch. The team is young though and won't lose many starters on either side of the ball next year. Give it an off season to develop the defense, get some more depth, and figure out how to close things out and they could have a 6-7 win team next season. Hell, they should have 5 right now which is two more than I expected. The team is at least headed in the right direction especially after officially kicking Epps off the team for good.

With all that out of the way, they will not win tomorrow. They probably have a good shot to cover at half time, but I just don't see them hanging at all in this one unless they get a lot of turnovers. App St. did lose to Arkansas St last week, and they did barely escape against Troy the week before. But those are two completely different Redwolves and Trojans teams than the ones Idaho faced. I've heard the Mountaineers have had some pretty significant offensive line issues as of late so that probably bodes well for Idaho, at least in the first half. After that the defense will no doubt get tired and it won't matter who is blocking for ASU. As long as the coaches over at App St. aren't retarded they'll know exactly the type of offense they need to run against Idaho. There are just too many weapons on that Mountaineer offense. Taylor Lamb has had a great season and will be the first good QB Idaho has played since they got their shit pushed in against Southern Cal. Idaho somehow managed to make two very mediocre passers look amazing over the last two weeks so I'm not looking forward to what a QB with a pulse is going to do.

Then of course there's ASU's run game which speaks for itself. 10th best in FBS in yards per game. I know I said they have offensive line issues but they just need a big dose of the Vandal D to cure all their problems. Idaho has made a living making teams feel better about themselves as of late so I don't expect this to be any different.

As I already mentioned, Idaho's D is riddled with injuries again and it's mostly all the same guys. I haven't heard much on Lupeamanu but I'm assuming he's out again. Marc Millan is back after a suspension that should have been longer so I believe they now have 5 or 6 healthy LBs for this 3-4 defense. Whoopie.

I would say that Idaho's best bet is again to control the clock on offense by pounding the rock with Penny (averaging 35 carries for 170 yards and almost 2 TDs a game over the last 3 weeks) and mixing that up with some intermediate passes, but they did that last week and they still lost. When you have a 13 minutes advantage in time of possession and out gain the opposition by 100 yards, you should win. Of course they did have three really poorly timed turnovers that all lead directly to USA points so I guess it's still in their best interest to control the clock again, this time while holding on to the damn ball.

Prediction: Idaho hangs with ASU early but again gets destroyed in the second half as the Mountaineers pull away. Not much else to say here. Pretty much covered it all.

Final Score

App St 52
Idaho 30
 
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