Way too Early Draft Needs as of the Bye Week

[Fountain City Blues]

1. QBotF, starting to think the talent on the offense well exceeds factory mode
2. w-OLB
3. CB Depth, particularly on the outside
4. Non-Pocketpushing DL
5. Safety Depth
6. ILBotF
7. FB (Cap casualty)
8. Punter (Cap casualty)


Not sure there are a ton of true needs on the Offense if we go position by position. LT, C, and RT are in stone and LG is occupied. Tardiff has been hurt, but I doubt a guard is high on the list of needs if at all, particularly a right guard. Young WR's in Conley and Hill have shown enough progress to be content with this group, and Robinson is in the wings' all cost controlled for at least two more years. TE is plenty adequate with Harris as the #2 TE. RB is fine regardless of what Charles' status is, and it may be worth trading him after this year if not simply a cutdown. Is the offense find and dandy? No, but a lot of the issues (G, lack of 2nd #1 WR, etc) are generally cost controlled and ascending talent, which increases the inertia to invest in the offense.

Really only true need on offense (except FB which is like whining about the lack of cherries on ice cream) is a QBotF, the talent on offense around him is no longer abysmal as in 2013 and 2014, and it wouldn't hurt to see if the Chiefs can find someone to make Smith expendable not named Nick Foles for cap purposes and thinking longterm. I found it interesting ESPN's Louis Reddick, a former FO member of Reid's eagles described Smith's play this year as make or break. I am not going to claim it's quid pro quo into what Reid really thinks, that'd be foolish, but it's a fairly interesting perspective to hear that view from, not just joe schmo (like me!) bloviating about franchise QB's and what not.

Defense with FA's and age needs to be reloaded. This was known going in but with the Russell pick being a disaster, a midround CB is back on the board in a year it probably shouldn't be. DJ White has some skills I like in the future as a slot CB, but CB is a position I prefer to be deep, especially for such a nickel happy defense that plays 2-3-6 more than it does base 3-4. Really this goes for safety too for this particular defense. This is probably the biggest criticism I have of it is how much maintenence it requires to function correctly when running so many subpackages even by comparison to the rest of the league; this is amplified when there isn't a true franchise QB at the helm on offense. And doubly so when it's a QB with Smith's particular profile, good and bad.

DL has some talent in Howard, Bailey, Jones which is fine, but outside of Poe (a NT, and FA) and Jones, the DL is filled with pocketpushers. Great for clean-up sacks and run D, but it's not quite enough either if you want to have a defense that can control games either. I may want to extend Howard again as a NT and let Poe move on if his contract gets into nonsense territory.

ILB is a big question, DJ is seemingly forever young but that's foolish to trust. I like Justin March quite a bit, perhaps irrationally so, but this is a position that needs to be looked into again, even if it should lose out to bigger overarching needs. This feels like a year they can skip this one for a year and hope DJ holds up and/or March develops.

Safety is interesting. Berry is likely gone, but the early results from Murray seem promising enough and Sorenson has been fine as a 3rd safety. Parker has been better than expected tackling wise which has always been his big bugaboo. You really need at least 4 to 5 safeties you trust to get on the field when the team runs as much 2-3-6, and not only that many safeties, but they realistically need to be able to play LB or even CB on certain snaps, which adds to the complexity to the draft for this team.

Punter and FB will both be cap casaulties, imo; sorry Sherman and Colquitt. Luckily those are fairly easy to replace with late round draft picks (if even that) if one chooses. Colquitt is starting to show his age, anyhow.

 

[cdumler7]

1. QBotF, starting to think the talent on the offense well exceeds factory mode
2. w-OLB
3. CB Depth, particularly on the outside
4. Non-Pocketpushing DL
5. Safety Depth
6. ILBotF
7. FB (Cap casualty)
8. Punter (Cap casualty)


Not sure there are a ton of true needs on the Offense if we go position by position. LT, C, and RT are in stone and LG is occupied. Tardiff has been hurt, but I doubt a guard is high on the list of needs if at all, particularly a right guard. Young WR's in Conley and Hill have shown enough progress to be content with this group, and Robinson is in the wings' all cost controlled for at least two more years. TE is plenty adequate with Harris as the #2 TE. RB is fine regardless of what Charles' status is, and it may be worth trading him after this year if not simply a cutdown. Is the offense find and dandy? No, but a lot of the issues (G, lack of 2nd #1 WR, etc) are generally cost controlled and ascending talent, which increases the inertia to invest in the offense.

Really only true need on offense (except FB which is like whining about the lack of cherries on ice cream) is a QBotF, the talent on offense around him is no longer abysmal as in 2013 and 2014, and it wouldn't hurt to see if the Chiefs can find someone to make Smith expendable not named Nick Foles for cap purposes and thinking longterm. I found it interesting ESPN's Louis Reddick, a former FO member of Reid's eagles described Smith's play this year as make or break. I am not going to claim it's quid pro quo into what Reid really thinks, that'd be foolish, but it's a fairly interesting perspective to hear that view from, not just joe schmo (like me!) bloviating about franchise QB's and what not.

Defense with FA's and age needs to be reloaded. This was known going in but with the Russell pick being a disaster, a midround CB is back on the board in a year it probably shouldn't be. DJ White has some skills I like in the future as a slot CB, but CB is a position I prefer to be deep, especially for such a nickel happy defense that plays 2-3-6 more than it does base 3-4. Really this goes for safety too for this particular defense. This is probably the biggest criticism I have of it is how much maintenence it requires to function correctly when running so many subpackages even by comparison to the rest of the league; this is amplified when there isn't a true franchise QB at the helm on offense. And doubly so when it's a QB with Smith's particular profile, good and bad.

DL has some talent in Howard, Bailey, Jones which is fine, but outside of Poe (a NT, and FA) and Jones, the DL is filled with pocketpushers. Great for clean-up sacks and run D, but it's not quite enough either if you want to have a defense that can control games either. I may want to extend Howard again as a NT and let Poe move on if his contract gets into nonsense territory.

ILB is a big question, DJ is seemingly forever young but that's foolish to trust. I like Justin March quite a bit, perhaps irrationally so, but this is a position that needs to be looked into again, even if it should lose out to bigger overarching needs. This feels like a year they can skip this one for a year and hope DJ holds up and/or March develops.

Safety is interesting. Berry is likely gone, but the early results from Murray seem promising enough and Sorenson has been fine as a 3rd safety. Parker has been better than expected tackling wise which has always been his big bugaboo. You really need at least 4 to 5 safeties you trust to get on the field when the team runs as much 2-3-6, and not only that many safeties, but they realistically need to be able to play LB or even CB on certain snaps, which adds to the complexity to the draft for this team.

Punter and FB will both be cap casaulties, imo; sorry Sherman and Colquitt. Luckily those are fairly easy to replace with late round draft picks (if even that) if one chooses. Colquitt is starting to show his age, anyhow.

Nice breakdown of the team and looking into next year. I saw that you had listed OLB up top but then didn't really talk about it. How much more do you think Hali has left? The Chiefs will have to make a decision on Dee Ford of whether to give him the 5th year option...Do you think they go ahead and do that? Do they draft one high in this upcoming draft?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Nice breakdown of the team and looking into next year. I saw that you had listed OLB up top but then didn't really talk about it. How much more do you think Hali has left? The Chiefs will have to make a decision on Dee Ford of whether to give him the 5th year option...Do you think they go ahead and do that? Do they draft one high in this upcoming draft?

I just don't know exactly when Hali retires, but it's pretty obvious he's going to have to be in an anxillary role until then. The guy in front of him wouldn't have to be all world at all with what is around him, but competent and/or promising would be a big bump in the depth department. Ford has a little more bend it looks like this year, but he still has a ways to go and I am pretty sure he just doesn't have the natural bend at this point (that's the most obvious and primary difference between him, Derrick Thomas and Von Miller physically speaking, but all 3 have superb first steps you can't teach) to be a starting OLB, or perhaps more accurately, a starting OLB on a good-great defense. He's in Jarvis Jones land, would lean towards not picking up his option with the FA's coming down the pike, just not worth it. Maybe it motivates him to diversify his passrush moves more, who knows.

I think it just depends what is there, where the Chiefs are in the draft, and how they feel about the QB's in the draft. They have traditionally drafted to replace, and with Nick Foles having an expensive-ish team option, it seems like a pretty reasonable bet they could draft a QB over an OLB this year. I personally would have some interest in Falk, but being in Leach's offense always bothers me. He sees the game really well just dissecting zones short-intermediate and getting the ball out on time. Seems like he could fit the WCO really well if he tones down some of the hyper-aggressive throws that are INT's in the NFL.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Just going on a 3 year roller from 2014-2016 (about the time you're either cut, extended or generally deemed a bust or not) leaving out 2013 since that class has pretty much expired as far as their 1st contract goes after this year, Fisher has also been extended so I am going to ignore his 5th year option kind of.

2014:

1:23- Dee Ford
3:87- Phillip Gaines
4:124- De'Anthony Thomas
5:163- Aaron Murray
6:193- Zach Fulton
6:200- Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff

1 starting caliber corner, though injury prone, possibly a starting caliber guard in Tardiff, and a lot of depth pieces instead of potential starters. Tardiff plays more like he did week 1 and he swings this draft a little bit towards bleh to somewhat positive. Two quality starters + 2-3 anxillary contributors isn't awful, but it doesn't really change your fortunes much either. Drafts like these will have you looking like the Titans if it persists.

2015:

1:18- Marcus Peters
2:49- Mitch Morse
3:76- Chris Conley
3:98- Steven Nelson
4:118- Ramik Wilson
5:172- DJ Alexander
6:217- Rakeem Nunez-Roches
7:233 Da'Ron Brown

First four picks in this draft look much better than it did last year as Conley and Nelson improve. Morse and Peters still look like excellent picks in the longrun. DJ Alexander while not starting is a rock solid ST'er. Ramik Wilson and Roches are still on the team, albeit on the PS; Roches would be a backend DL man on most teams I suspect. Worth noting that Wilson is the 2nd 4th round ILB Dorsey has cut, he drafted Nico in the 4th round in 2013. His dumpster diving and UDFA's at ILB have been better than the drafted ILB's so far. Wilson is still technically on the team. Fairly strong draft if Nelson and Conley keep trending upwards.

2016:

* Original 3rd round and 6th round pick taken for tampering

2:37- Chris Jones
3:59- Kei'Varae Russell
4:105- Parker Ehinger
4:106- Eric Murray
4:126- Demarcus Robinson
5:162- Kevin Hogan
5:165- Tyreek Hill
6:178- DJ White
6:203- Dadi Nicholas

Jones looks like a future starter and is in the rotation, Ehinger, while unknown, is currently starting when healthy for better or worse. Murray is in the rotation of safeties and doing ok. Robinson, predictably, is being redshirted. Russell and Hogan are just wasted picks for all intents and purposes, and it looks doubly bad in hindsight when someone like Dak Prescott is doing what he is doing now, though I hardly blame the Chiefs for drafting a midround CB and backup QB prospect at the time; it's worth mentioning nonetheless. Hill on the field has been good enough as a returner and is sorta breaking into the WR snaps which is surprising and exciting. DJ White and Nicholas are both bonafide projects may turn into something, but definitely not their rookie years.

 

[Clayton]

Dee Ford is the major variable here. Obviously just had a career type game where he and a couple of other Chiefs just made the theoretically solid Raiders oline look like swiss cheese. I think he stays unless the Raiders game was just a fluke. I can see the Chiefs drafting another OLB for sure but maybe not in rd1.

Currently Walterfootball has 22 defensive players going in the first round. The Chiefs have had 3 straight drafts with high round defensive picks. Next year is also supposed to be a great TE draft but I doubt Dorsey puts any positional value on #2 TE. Thats literally at the bottom of the positional value chart.

A QB-of-the-Future draft would be nice. CBS has 4 potential 1st round guys. Usually that number get scaled back to 3 when someone goes back to school or loses all of his draft stock. One of the worst kept secrets in the league is that the Chiefs have spent at least 2 drafts trying to fill the QB position.

A good team would probably try to fill holes on the defense, though. Between salary and age, they should have 1 or 2 by the end of the year. DJ is playing out of his mind right now but thats probably the spot Id look at.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Dee Ford is the major variable here. Obviously just had a career type game where he and a couple of other Chiefs just made the theoretically solid Raiders oline look like swiss cheese. I think he stays unless the Raiders game was just a fluke. I can see the Chiefs drafting another OLB for sure but maybe not in rd1.

You bring up a good point with Ford, that's probably my bias against him speaking earlier, but if he figures it out it definitely changes the outlook. Was more impressed with his performance against Oakland when I realized he was getting pressure from both sides, not just on Austin Howard; including a stripsack off of Penn. It'll be something to monitor. His 5th year option is a decision that is also coming up in the offseason.

Currently Walterfootball has 22 defensive players going in the first round. The Chiefs have had 3 straight drafts with high round defensive picks. Next year is also supposed to be a great TE draft but I doubt Dorsey puts any positional value on #2 TE. Thats literally at the bottom of the positional value chart.

Agreed.

A QB-of-the-Future draft would be nice. CBS has 4 potential 1st round guys. Usually that number get scaled back to 3 when someone goes back to school or loses all of his draft stock. One of the worst kept secrets in the league is that the Chiefs have spent at least 2 drafts trying to fill the QB position.

Yeah, I just haven't really decided who would be the best realistic fit for this offense at the moment. Kind of curious if someone drops later in the 1st after watching the last couple weeks of CFB. My wetdream would be NFL scouts overreacting to some Manzielesque QB play from Deshaun Watson the past couple weeks against Louisville and NCSU buying low on him, but that's obviously a longshot. Wouldn't be upset if they put this off another year, but I'd start to be worried about the lack of a serious succession plan for 2018. Definitely agree about the #2 TE. Way down the list of things I'd care for.

A good team would probably try to fill holes on the defense, though. Between salary and age, they should have 1 or 2 by the end of the year. DJ is playing out of his mind right now but thats probably the spot Id look at.

Certainly seems to be heading in that direction.

 

[cdumler7]

I will say I have been impressed with Dee Ford this year. I was really high on him before the draft and actually if I remember right the mock draft that we do on this site I picked him for the Broncos. Finally starting to see him mix some new pass rushing moves in instead of just flying to the edge hoping he can beat his guy. Going to be interesting to see the rotation when Justin Houston comes back and just how big of an impact that makes on this defense that has had times of looking really good this year.

 

[Clayton]

#1 WR
#2 QB
#3 CB

Would be my guess right now. Hill and Conley are good but both super late round guys and neither are likely a future #1. Not sure how many seasons Maclin has left in him. Chiefs going CB again might seem insane but they have large depth issues still.

Maclin's contract looks bad right now.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

#1 WR
#2 QB
#3 CB

Would be my guess right now. Hill and Conley are good but both super late round guys and neither are likely a future #1. Not sure how many seasons Maclin has left in him. Chiefs going CB again might seem insane but they have large depth issues still.

Maclin's contract looks bad right now.

I've always viewed Maclin as a 3 year contract to capitalize on the backend of the Smith window, after that he's expendable to me since the Chiefs probably have a new QB by 2018 as the team reloads for the next window; FO hasn't been shy with dead money so I don't expect them to hang on to him just because. But yeah, I am not sold on Conley or Hill developing into #1 caliber receivers, but having two cost controlled #2's is a palatable consolation prize if nothing else in the meantime given there's a legit TE1 to absorb targets. Didn't think we would be seeing problems with Maclin in year 2 however, so that contract definitely doesn't look all that hot right now. With that being said, I'd like to reload the defense first before reshuffling the deck at WR again. Just not a fan of the WR's that'd be available assuming the Chiefs draft in the mid 20's again.

The CB depth issue is particularly depressing given how they straight up whiffed on Russell in this last draft. Far reaching consequences already when 1 CB goes down, the YPA allowed goes up by around two yards, that's unbelievable and indicates this team's margin of error is razor thin as far as any kind of contention goes. If they don't manage to get a bye in the playoffs and get healthy, which looks increasingly difficult, I don't see how this team can win a SB barring something just flukey and bizarre ala Denver last year. And the margin of error wasn't that big to begin with given Smith was the QB.

I am still thinking this will be a pretty defense heavy draft for this team unless they are very aggressive in getting a QB in the draft. Starting 5 on the OL is pretty unlikely to change, imo. TE1, locked up, WR 2 and 3 are good to go, and you have a big contract with Maclin still. Ware is solid at RB, and have West behind him. Just not a lot of positions outside of the QB that scream need per se. Some depth here and there on the OL perhaps, maybe if there's a WR you really like, but it's tough for me to figure out who that would be in this draft when we go through this class. With FA's, the age of Hali/Johnson, and an incoming cap crunch tend to lend me towards the defense.

My guess is the Chiefs FT Poe for a year, not going to speculate if an extension can be reached, I don't see anything to make me think the Chiefs have moved on what they would give Berry. So safety should be assumed to be a need if nothing else because you want at least 3 good safeties for the defense to function properly since there are many formations with at least 3 safeties, sometimes even 4.

Bailey and Howard's contracts get interesting though this offseason. Howard has 1 more year and Bailey's performance has tapered off significantly before going on IR. Really the DL needs another body as is anyways. I have that as a need. Run D in subpackages is going to have to better if this defense wants to be taken seriously when people name top defenses in the NFL.

Edgerusher needs more depth, and Hali is very long in the tooth and likely only plays 1 more year strictly because his cap won't allow him to be cut this offseason. Another need. Maybe not quite as urgent as it was a couple months ago with the emergence of Ford, but I don't think it should change the calculus that much given how valuable passrushers are. As a bonus you can get rid of Zombo and net around 500k or so. I like Dadi but betting on him for the future is crazy until he actually does something.

The big, big question for this team is who the QBotF is. I've seen nothing to suggest it's Nick Foles and even less than nothing to suggest it's Bray. Who that is in this draft, or maybe the next one, is challenging, but that's what the FO is paid to figure out.

Kizer, Trubisky, Watson, Kaaya, Webb, Gustafson, Falk, Mahomes, and a few others are out there. The question remains though? Who?

 

[Clayton]

Chiefs are probably drafting 20-30 somewhere. Kizer should go #1. QB of the F is down to Trubisky who probably has a 25% chance of dropping that far and Watson who probably has a 75% chance of dropping that far. I'd almost go ahead and eliminate Watson as a bad fit but its a bit early for that.

Chiefs have 2 big issues right now.

#1: Opposing defenses are squeezing the pass game. It seems like the only time Alex Smith gets yards is when the other team has a lead. Or 'Spencer Ware out of the backfield' which has basically bailed out the Chiefs this year. In a weird way this seems to be wearing out opposing defenses in true west coast fashion but there needs to be more flash, upside and space in the offense to consistently score points. This is very notably important in one stat which sums up problem #1: The Chiefs are 31st in red zone offense TD %. This is a nutty stat for a team with 4 good offensive lineman and a good/great TE. Totally nutty. And yet its been an issue for awhile. If this stat continues, the Chiefs will miss the playoffs or lose their first game unceremoniously.

#2: The pass defense has been very bendy this year. The Chiefs are 30th in 3rd down defense efficiency. This is also just ridiculous because the 2 below them are the awful Niners and Browns. I want to blame coaching on this one or scheme or just not having the depth to play the scheme. Something is seriously wrong with that stat because the footballoutsiders POWER numbers are good for the dline on short yardage situations and the Chiefs opposing yards per play is middle of the pack. That only leaves one result: the Chiefs have an awful secondary.

I think given that information, the Chiefs almost have to go QB or CB in rd1.
TE/WR/LB/DE/CB in rd2 and beyond.

I could see the Chiefs going CB in rd1 and then TE in rd2 if Trubisky is off the board. TE has lots of depth. Someone like Butt should be there in rd2 no doubt.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Chiefs are probably drafting 20-30 somewhere. Kizer should go #1. QB of the F is down to Trubisky who probably has a 25% chance of dropping that far and Watson who probably has a 75% chance of dropping that far. I'd almost go ahead and eliminate Watson as a bad fit but its a bit early for that.

Chiefs have 2 big issues right now.

#1: Opposing defenses are squeezing the pass game. It seems like the only time Alex Smith gets yards is when the other team has a lead. Or 'Spencer Ware out of the backfield' which has basically bailed out the Chiefs this year. In a weird way this seems to be wearing out opposing defenses in true west coast fashion but there needs to be more flash, upside and space in the offense to consistently score points. This is very notably important in one stat which sums up problem #1: The Chiefs are 31st in red zone offense TD %. This is a nutty stat for a team with 4 good offensive lineman and a good/great TE. Totally nutty. And yet its been an issue for awhile. If this stat continues, the Chiefs will miss the playoffs or lose their first game unceremoniously.

#2: The pass defense has been very bendy this year. The Chiefs are 30th in 3rd down defense efficiency. This is also just ridiculous because the 2 below them are the awful Niners and Browns. I want to blame coaching on this one or scheme or just not having the depth to play the scheme. Something is seriously wrong with that stat because the footballoutsiders POWER numbers are good for the dline on short yardage situations and the Chiefs opposing yards per play is middle of the pack. That only leaves one result: the Chiefs have an awful secondary.

I think given that information, the Chiefs almost have to go QB or CB in rd1.
TE/WR/LB/DE/CB in rd2 and beyond.

I could see the Chiefs going CB in rd1 and then TE in rd2 if Trubisky is off the board. TE has lots of depth. Someone like Butt should be there in rd2 no doubt.

Part of the issue is subpackages that favor extra safeties such as Sorenson. These last two weeks however have been pretty Ramik Wilson heavy to clamp down on the run game which makes sense with Winston/Martin and Newton/Stewart. Logical enough gameplan and explains partially why the overall rushing YPC allowed number is poor, but with Peters out, Nelson moved to the outside, and Acker in the lineup you gotta call a spade a spade with these CB's. They're just not very good or deep. It's workable when Nelson is locked down in the slot (where he is noticeably more effective) and Gaines is strictly the RCB and designated pinata, but that only goes so far when injury comes a'calling. Secondary is likely going to need a talent injection with a likely Berry departure coming, and Sorenson is a RFA who I assume we protect with 2nd round tender with how he has performed.

On offense I gotta blame the QB on this one. The weapons are there, the talent is there, the big bodies are there. How is this team not in the top 10 of RZTD%, at minimum? Mind boggling.

 

[Clayton]

Part of the issue is subpackages that favor extra safeties such as Sorenson. These last two weeks however have been pretty Ramik Wilson heavy to clamp down on the run game which makes sense with Winston/Martin and Newton/Stewart. Logical enough gameplan and explains partially why the overall rushing YPC allowed number is poor, but with Peters out, Nelson moved to the outside, and Acker in the lineup you gotta call a spade a spade with these CB's. They're just not very good or deep. It's workable when Nelson is locked down in the slot (where he is noticeably more effective) and Gaines is strictly the RCB and designated pinata, but that only goes so far when injury comes a'calling. Secondary is likely going to need a talent injection with a likely Berry departure coming, and Sorenson is a RFA who I assume we protect with 2nd round tender with how he has performed.

On offense I gotta blame the QB on this one. The weapons are there, the talent is there, the big bodies are there. How is this team not in the top of RZTD%, at minimum? Mind boggling.

Acker (and White) is a breaking point for sure and Gaines at this point can't be counted on. Functionally another CB drafted would replace Gaines and Peters has more than replaced Smith.

Watson is at best Dak Prescott from last year and the Chiefs passed on him. It would be interesting to see if they have a change of heart but I dont see what has changed. Outside of rd1, I almost feel like the Chiefs would just be throwing away more draft picks if they went QB. Alex Smith has been bad this year, though. Autosacking and missing open guys and throwing a costly pick here and there. Alex Smith is historically bad at attempting to throw deep but in order to be a game manager champion he has to fix the red zone issues. If the Chiefs can just be an average red zone offense then they'll win the division.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I am getting close to crying uncle with West as anything other than a solid 3rd down back. An RB2 seems like it is worth a look in this draft. Love Charles, but his capnumber is flat out unreconcilable with the cap reality of the Chiefs. Also there's a mock with Deshaun Watson heading to the Chiefs. Would certainly be a source of debate for quite some time if that happened. Would be if nothing else, interesting.

 

[MHSL82]

Acker (and White) is a breaking point for sure and Gaines at this point can't be counted on. Functionally another CB drafted would replace Gaines and Peters has more than replaced Smith.

Watson is at best Dak Prescott from last year and the Chiefs passed on him. It would be interesting to see if they have a change of heart but I dont see what has changed. Outside of rd1, I almost feel like the Chiefs would just be throwing away more draft picks if they went QB. Alex Smith has been bad this year, though. Autosacking and missing open guys and throwing a costly pick here and there. Alex Smith is historically bad at attempting to throw deep but in order to be a game manager champion he has to fix the red zone issues. If the Chiefs can just be an average red zone offense then they'll win the division.

Not that I disagree but he's only thrown one costly pick, not really here and there - though it was costly and dumb.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

W-ILB needs to be bumped

 

[Clayton]

W-ILB needs to be bumped

If this was the initial list at the start of the year:

1. QBotF, starting to think the talent on the offense well exceeds factory mode
2. w-OLB
3. CB Depth, particularly on the outside
4. Non-Pocketpushing DL
5. Safety Depth
6. ILBotF
7. FB (Cap casualty)
8. Punter (Cap casualty)


then we might be looking at:

1. QBotF, starting to think the talent on the offense well exceeds factory mode
2. ILBotF
3. CB Depth, particularly on the outside
4. RB

I am starting to think that the Chiefs are stuck with the WRs they have which might not be terrible if Hill stays relevant and Maclin can become more involved. Its hard to root for Hill but it looks like he is a fixture on the team now.

 

[Clayton]

SI ranked KC the 9th best destination for a QB in the NFL based on surrounding talent. I don't put too much weight into SI but that sounds about right.

 

[Clayton]

Getting a rough look at some draft prospects:

Charles Harris EDGE. Fits the Justin Houston mold but thats a hard comparison because Houston was an underachiever in college and had to develop into a star. Harris does lose the ball on a routine basis. Concentrates so much on beating his guy that he might be a liability in the run game. Nastier than Shane Ray but not quite as gifted as someone like Robert Quinn. Without a rockstar combine, a poor man's Justin Houston is probably about where I'd put him but thats a catch-22. If you nails the combine, he won't fall to the Chiefs and if he doesn't then he doesn't really provide an upgrade at that spot and the Chiefs should look elsewhere.

Reuben Foster LB. Probably an automatic pick if he is there. Sometimes ILBs drop but Foster could also be the best player on the Alabama's defense so I dont suspect he'll be there. I've seen a couple of mocks with him in the lower half of the draft and teams will reach on olinemen so he might fall but without getting arrested, I cant see him being available but the Chiefs should draft him if he is.

Quenton Nelson G. A solid choice if he is there. Great functional strength and likely an immediate upgrade. A bit clumsy and not always the best off the snap but even when out of position he was able to recover and physically win his matchups. When in position, he dominated the matchups at a college level which is what you need to see. Not suited for the outside but can move from one level to the next quickly.

Patrick Mahomes QB. Not a fan. Awful footwork gives him issues. Wouldn't be surprised if he had a Blaine Gabbert level of adjustment to his game and a Blaine Gabbert upside to boot.

Davis Webb QB. A real cannon for an arm. Good deep ball accuracy. Super slow footspeed makes him a pure pocket passer. Run screens well enough to make him survive in the NFL but a bad fit for what the Chiefs currently do. At least a 1 year project. At least. Shotgun guy who makes some automatic decisions that can sometimes be pretty bad. Can rush some throws for no reason and miss them. A consideration at rd2 but certainly not rd1.

Christian McCaffrey RB. A lot more impressed with him than I thought I would be. Shifty and fast in space. Patient and tough between the tackles. A Home Run threat if someone misses a tackle. Stronger than a Melvin Gordon type but not actually strong. Finds himself off balance at times and gets hit in ways that make him a bit of a durability risk at the next level. Pad level isnt consistent. A willing blocker but probably not something you'd want him doing. Succeeded as a focal point in college. Highly variable draft status because he is a white RB which is a bit like a unicorn. Would be an all pro behind the Dallas Cowboys line. Not sure about the Chiefs but might be BPA where they are drafting.

 

[Clayton]

Brad Kaaya QB. More like Jared Goff than I expected in both the good ways and bad ways. Mostly the bad ways, though. Will need a year to develop, melts under pressure and a possible interception machine that underthrows receivers routinely. Not a great athlete. Not a top 50 pick. Great vision and possible developmental upside.

Deshaun Watson QB. I think the hope here is that he has Dak Prescott upside but its not a realistic year 1 goal for him. Possibly more realistic for him to go through the same growing pains that Alex Smith went through but its hard to imagine a better landing spot for him than the Chiefs. Probably has more to gain or lose than any player this offseason so he is really going to have to try and show teams that he has what it takes from the neck up.

Dan Feeney G. A strong guard prospect . Nothing too flashy and occasionally a bit grabby but likely has a lengthy career ahead of him in the NFL. Teams routinely left him unengaged choosing to challenge the other Hoosiers when pass rushing. Indiana moved him around a lot in the run game and displays the appropriate ability to get to the next level. He wore out at some points in the later parts of the Ohio State game. Also got turned around a few times when trying to figure out who he wanted to block. Otherwise played very consistently. Maybe more ZBS than Power but could probably do both.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Haven't been watching too much CFB lately to have seen most of these non-QB's (or paid attention might be more accurate) outside the Big 12. I'll list some of my thoughts on the QB's that might be available.

Patrick Mahomes QB

Looks like a bag of physical tools and not much else. Unlike Kizer who is, imo, a lot more projectable, this looks like a total-rebuild project as much as an actual developmental process. Didn't really impress me watching his games as far as the NFL goes and plays in Tech's offense; his mechanics need a complete rebuild and that sounds more like a 5th round pick to me than the first 3 rounds like I am seeing in these mocks. Not worth the trouble to draft Tyler Bray 2.0. That raw arm strength is from an alien, however, it's not hard to see why a team with a favorable QB situation might want to take a chance, but that's not the Chiefs, nor should they pick him. Andy Reid might be a good coach, but he ain't a miracle worker.

Davis Webb QB.

Project, but not nearly as big a hot mess as Mahomes is. Has the physical skills you look for, but not really convinced he has what you're looking for from the head on up. An interesting prospect as the ceiling is there, I'd guess he goes in the late 3rd early 4th range. Deep ball is interesting. The Chiefs are averaging 130 yards in YAC a game right now. That's over half of their passing yards. Not totally against Webb here, but I have reservations if he is the pick. Takes some imagination with Webb, but it's not ridiculous either. Cal has not traditionally prepared QB's for the NFL, Rodgers very muchso appears to be an exception, not the rule.

Brad Kaaya QB.

Looks a lot like Andy Dalton to me. He has some actually pretty impressive traits when he has been kept clean which is good. But many of those traits turn to mush under pressure and all of the sudden his touch, pocket presence,accuracy, but especially his mechanics look very, very subpar; the latter being the worst kept secret, backfoot throws seem to happen every game with him. Seems like a future average QB who might be an Andy Dalton-esque force multiplier in the NFL. Could easily see him being able to stick with some work, just don't see a star. Could work for the Chiefs, but I'd be unimpressed with Kaaya's ceiling as a QB. Seems like a prime candidate to be overdrafted. 2nd round is where he should go.

DeShaun Watson QB

Not overwhelming in terms of physical tools outside of his mobility which is a major plus for me in Andy's offense, but a lot of above average tools. Nobody will confuse this guy with Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, etc to be totally clear. However, with that being said, there's a lot to like if your standard is below that of a 1:1/2 caliber QB prospect. Not so sure Watson isn't still the QB1 in this draft still in reality even after some guys have made a charge at it such as Kizer. For that reason, I am not so sure Watson is available like some negative press on him might have us believe. The main issue I see with Watson is he has some brainfarts which are honestly a bit hard to explain, and happen more often than we saw with say Luck. Those aside, I actually like a lot of his reads and field vision. I haven't gotten a chance to compare his release, but if it's quick and compact, this might be the best fit for the Chiefs and Watson. I really want to see what he does against two of the better defenses in CFB in Ohio St and Bama/Washington. If he plays well in one or both games, I think I'll be on this guy's bandwagon for the Chiefs. Has looked much better this past month. Would certainly need to sit a year, but it wouldn't be hard to see how he could succeed in the Chiefs' offense in 2018 or 2019. Not sure what a good comp would be, but I am pretty sure he has a better head on his shoulders did than RG3 did in the NFL; not sure where the RG3 comps are really coming from.

Mason Rudolph QB

Another flawed, ineffecient, and mechanically broken QB as far as the NFL is concerned. Has some arm strength but it's pretty much sapped by crappy mechanics. This looks like another backup QB prospect until proven otherwise which this draftclass seems loaded with. His reads looked very slow and clunky for a college QB even. Missed a lot of throws that should be money in the bank at the NFL level. 5th rounder as far as the Chiefs are concerned for me.

DeShone Kizer QB

Flashes some really impressive skills with his decisionmaking and fieldvision, but there are times where I am left scratching my head watching him wondering what exactly he was thinking; maybe trusted his arm too much? Speaking of his arm, this is probably the best arm talent that has been in the draft in years. With that being said, he is unlikely to be available, is a questionable fit for the Chiefs, and a lot of his stock, imo, is in future projection which is always dangerous. Not nearly as much as the projects mentioned before, but there's some real bust potential here. Has some Big Ben in him, but you got to wonder if he'll ever reach anything close to that. Seems like a guy Bruce Arians would like anyways. I would not expect him to be available at all.

Mitch Trubisky QB

Highly unlikely he is available, first things first. Mitch is nonetheless polarizing though which is an indication the QB class is not really all that well regarded. Have not gotten the chance to watch him a bunch outside of a monsoon which is madness, but in the other couple games I have seen I get the impression that the UNC offense is pretty good all around. Don't feel like I could give a fair or accurate synopsis of Mitch atm, but he seems very popular in certain circles. Walterfootball has him going first overall.