Updated Bracketology 2.13.17

[ericd7633]

East Regional(New York, NY)

1. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
16. UNC CENTRAL(MEAC)/MT. SAINT MARY'S(NEC)
-Key Bank Center(Buffalo, NY)
8. VCU(A-10)
9. Oklahoma State

5. Notre Dame
12. AKRON(MAC)
-Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
4. UCLA
13. VALPARAISO(HORIZON)

6. SMU(AAC)
11. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE(C-USA)
-BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
3. KENTUCKY(SEC)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

7. St. Mary's
10. Michigan
-Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
2. Florida State
15. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT LEAGUE)

Midwest Regional(Kansas City, MO)

1. KANSAS(BIG 12)
16. NEW ORLEANS(SOUTHLAND)
-BOK CENTER(Tulsa, OK)
8. Minnesota
9. California

5. Creighton
12. UNC-WILMINTON(CAA)
-Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
4. Duke
13. BOISE STATE(MTN. WEST)

6. WISCONSIN(B1G)
11. ILLINOIS STATE(MVC)
-Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
3. ARIZONA(PAC 12)
14. PRINCETON(IVY)

7. Xavier
10. Kansas State
-Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
2. Louisville
15. FURMAN(SO. CONF)

South Regional(Memphis, TN)

1. Baylor
16. WEBER ST(BIG SKY)/UC-DAVIS(BIG WEST)
-BOK CENTER(Tulsa, OK)
8. Dayton
9. Michigan State

5. Cincinnati
12. Wichita State/Wake Forest
-Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
4. Butler
13. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

6. Maryland
11. Syracuse
-Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
3. Florida
14. ARKANSAS STATE(SUN BELT)

7. USC
10. Iowa State
-BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
2. NORTH CAROLINA(ACC)
15. FGCU(A-SUN)

West Regional(San Jose, CA)

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN(SWAC)
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
8. Virginia Tech
9. TCU

5. Purdue
12. MONMOUTH(MAAC)
-Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
4. Virginia
13. BELMONT(OVC)

6. South Carolina
11. Arkansas/Georgia Tech
-Key Bank Center(Buffalo, NY)
3. West Virginia
14. UNC-ASHEVILLE(BIG SOUTH)

7. Northwestern
10. Miami
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
2. Oregon
15. CSU BAKERSFIELD(WAC)

Top 16 "Seed" Curve: Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Florida State, Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, UCLA, Duke, Butler.
Last 4 BYES: Miami, Iowa State, Kansas State, Syracuse
Last 4 IN: Wichita State, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
First 4 OUT: Tennessee, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Nevada
Next 4 OUT: UT-Arlington, Georgetown, Clemson, Providence

 

[bksballer89]

Man if those are the 4 seeds on selection sunday, that sweet 16 will be something else.

Zaga/UVA, Kansas/Duke, & Nova/UCLA

 

[Gohogs14]

The bubble must be really bad this year if we're still in

 

[ericd7633]

The bubble must be really bad this year if we're still in

It is. And Arkansas is also 7-5 against the top 100. Which is better than most bubble teams. We're going to see a lot of teams with 12, 13, and 14 losses potentially make the field this year. My guess is a lot of those will be ACC teams. Seems like the committee values that conference(with good reason) which is why, at least in this update, I gave teams like Georgia Tech, Cuse and Wake Forest the benefit of the doubt.

 

[ill]

Yea Bucknell!

I am almost positive they are going to lose to Lehigh in the Patriot League tournament, so they won't get the automatic bid this year...

 

[ericd7633]

Yea Bucknell!

I am almost positive they are going to lose to Lehigh in the Patriot League tournament, so they won't get the automatic bid this year...

That would be a pretty big upset, but then again Holy Cross won the whole damn tournament last year as the 9th seed.

 

[ill]

That would be a pretty big upset, but then again Holy Cross won the whole damn tournament last year as the 9th seed.

Lehigh has handed Bucknell their only 2 losses in the Patriot League this year, so I am convinced they have their number.

 

[ericd7633]

Lehigh has handed Bucknell their only 2 losses in the Patriot League this year, so I am convinced they have their number.

You might be right. Looks like Lehigh will finish 4/5th in the conference so they'd meet in the Semi's. Maybe Colgate or Loyola can beat them in the 4/5 game.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

We suck ass

But we ain't more than 8 teams out as of right now

 

[ericd7633]

We suck ass

But we ain't more than 8 teams out as of right now

The RPI of 82 and Non Con SOS of 279, really hurt Marquette's chances right now. There isn't much separation from the first team out(Tennessee) and a team like Marquette though. The back end of the bracket is really tough to decipher.

 

[jontaejones]

Can you believe UCLA has only 3 Top 50 wins?

 

[Hitman Hart]

Bubble has to be really weak this year. Georgia Tech and Syracuse have an RPI in the 70s.

Wake lacks quality wins, and they are listed as being in as well. They are pretty solid on paper, though.

 

[jontaejones]

The RPI of 82 and Non Con SOS of 279, really hurt Marquette's chances right now. There isn't much separation from the first team out(Tennessee) and a team like Marquette though. The back end of the bracket is really tough to decipher.

Marquette still gets to face 2 teams at home who have Top 20 RPIs but due to injury are more like 60 RPI teams. I wonder if the committee docks them for it on Selection Sunday.

Assuming they can win those games in the first place.

 

[cowboys5xsbs]

Weber State is going down in the Big Sky tourni

 

[tducey]

Going to be very interesting to see who the Bubble teams are this year for sure. Also good to see Wake Forest back there, used to be a great program there but haven't made the NCAA tourney since 2010.

 

[Lions=TeHsUcKs]

Damn we make the tourney only to get bombed by St. Mary's.

 

[osubuckeye89]

Wake Forest is one of those examples of why RPI does not always work out for everything

They are 35th (at least according to ESPN) Their SOS is top 20 but they are 15-11 but they have not actually beat any of the top teams theyve played. Do we just say "oh well they played a tough schedule so put them in" regardless of actual results?

I guess it's just a really weak bubble field this year.

 

[ericd7633]

Wake Forest is one of those examples of why RPI does not always work out for everything

They are 35th (at least according to ESPN) Their SOS is top 20 but they are 15-11 but they have not actually beat any of the top teams theyve played. Do we just say "oh well they played a tough schedule so put them in" regardless of actual results?

I guess it's just a really weak bubble field this year.

Keep in mind I did this on Monday(before the loss to Clemson) I'd obviously have to reevaluate because even 2 nights of games can change a lot. I also don't think their RPI is all that really inflated. They have 7 top 100 wins, and their worst loss is on the road against a Syracuse team who's in a similar situation to them.

Their metrics are also really, really good. They are 36th in Massey composite. And their SoR is 43rd. Which would indicate they are probably a tournament team, but they just lack the marquee wins to show for it. If they can manage to go 3-1 down the stretch, Wake should feel pretty confident.

 

[osubuckeye89]

Keep in mind I did this on Monday(before the loss to Clemson) I'd obviously have to reevaluate because even 2 nights of games can change a lot. I also don't think their RPI is all that really inflated. They have 7 top 100 wins, and their worst loss is on the road against a Syracuse team who's in a similar situation to them.

Their metrics are also really, really good. They are 36th in Massey composite. And their SoR is 43rd. Which would indicate they are probably a tournament team, but they just lack the marquee wins to show for it. If they can manage to go 3-1 down the stretch, Wake should feel pretty confident.

Eh for me looking at their ACC play alone shows they probably should not be a tourney team

4 of their 6 ACC wins are against Boston College and NC State who are both bottom 3 in the conference, not to mention the 2 losses to Clemson

 

[ericd7633]

Eh for me looking at their ACC play alone shows they probably should not be a tourney team

4 of their 6 ACC wins are against Boston College and NC State who are both bottom 3 in the conference, not to mention the 2 losses to Clemson

The bubble is as weak as it's ever been. Every team in the Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and next 4 OUT all have glaring blemishes on their resume. Wake's is that they don't have any quality wins(top 50), but using the other teams in the Last 4 IN, Wichita State has only 1 top 100, win, Arkansas has only two top 50 wins(along with losses to Missouri and Mississippi State), and Ga. Tech is a 10 loss team that played a bad OOC schedule(
#254) Plus, at least in this addition, I gave the ACC the benefit because the committee seems to think highly of the conference based on the top 16 reveal.