Top 10 QB...

[Niner Outlaw]

Looks like you have a strong answer there. I wonder of the stats for QB that were traded up for in the top five?

Of the 13 SB winning Qbs taken in the top 10:
--8 were taken 1st overall (Namath, Plunkett, Bradshaw, Aikman, Elway, Peyton, Eli, and Young(supp))
--2 were traded up for (Elway, Eli), both first overall
--it pays to have the pick of the litter

All the Qbs in semirecent history who’ve been traded up for in the top 10: Trubisky(3), Mahomes(10), Goff(1), Wentz(2), Sanchez(5), Gabbert(10), Griffin III(3), Vick(1), Leaf(2), K.Collins(5), J.George(1), Eli(1), Elway(1)

There are plenty of Qbs taken in the top 10 that never got to the SB or got there and lost, yet GMs around the league would still take them in the top 10: Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan, A.Smith, Rivers, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, McNair, Bledsoe, etc.

And it still doesn't distract me from the point that the four in question are not special. That for every Goff and Wentz there's a Winston and Mariota, for every McNabb and Rivers there are Leafs and Akili Smiths.

I know what you mean. It's usually a 50/50 chance for a rd 1 QB, and the odds off finding a successful QB after rd 1 are ...very low. Though the historical odds are a little better in the top 10, it's really a coinflip. The Niners had our chance and we picked Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers. I wouldn't call Smith a bust, but it's clear to see we picked the wrong side of the 50/50 split. However, one has to keep in mind, you can't win the QB derby if you don't participate in the QB derby.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Of the 13 SB winning Qbs taken in the top 10:
--8 were taken 1st overall (Namath, Plunkett, Bradshaw, Aikman, Elway, Peyton, Eli, and Young(supp))
--2 were traded up for (Elway, Eli), both first overall
--it pays to have the pick of the litter

All the Qbs in semirecent history who’ve been traded up for in the top 10: Trubisky(3), Mahomes(10), Goff(1), Wentz(2), Sanchez(5), Gabbert(10), Griffin III(3), Vick(1), Leaf(2), K.Collins(5), J.George(1), Eli(1), Elway(1)

There are plenty of Qbs taken in the top 10 that never got to the SB or got there and lost, yet GMs around the league would still take them in the top 10: Luck, Newton, Stafford, Ryan, A.Smith, Rivers, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, McNair, Bledsoe, etc.

I know what you mean. It's usually a 50/50 chance for a rd 1 QB, and the odds off finding a successful QB after rd 1 are ...very low. Though the historical odds are a little better in the top 10, it's really a coinflip. The Niners had our chance and we picked Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers. I wouldn't call Smith a bust, but it's clear to see we picked the wrong side of the 50/50 split. However, one has to keep in mind, you can't win the QB derby if you don't participate in the QB derby.

Those trade ups are scary to me. Goff and Wentz aside.

My derby win would be Roquan at 12, a RT at 22 and see what happens with A.J. If they (Peterman backup) suck, so what? High pick next year to grab a QB that will have just as much hype.

 

[shopson67]

Those trade ups are scary to me. Goff and Wentz aside.

My derby win would be Roquan at 12, a RT at 22 and see what happens with A.J. If they (Peterman backup) suck, so what? High pick next year to grab a QB that will have just as much hype.

How high do you really think the Bills would be picking if AJ is only a glorified backup? They are still a running team with Shady (and depth now), along with a solid defense. They would still be in the mid-round range. Who do you see as top QBs in next year's draft? I don't see 5 potential 1st rounders like this year.

 

[shopson67]

It was you who got me looking at Roquan Smith. This guy is a true MLB, a very good one, and it is our most glaring hole (less Jordan Mills). They just don't make them like Roquan anymore. I'm drooling over him. I would settle for Tremaine Edmunds too.

I like him too, but doubt he gets past the Raiders, unless the rumored medical red flag becomes a thing. I would expect he and Edmunds to be off the board by 12, but you never know.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I like him too, but doubt he gets past the Raiders, unless the rumored medical red flag becomes a thing. I would expect he and Edmunds to be off the board by 12, but you never know.

Four QB, Barkley, two ND o-linemen, couple DB, couple D line.

That's 11 without the LB... I think the DB's will go top ten. QB's and Barkley go top ten. Chubb goes top ten. That leaves four picks out of the two LB, and two O linemen. All of which I would be extremely happy with. If a Qb falls, fine...hope it's Allen.

 

[TKOSpikes]

How high do you really think the Bills would be picking if AJ is only a glorified backup? They are still a running team with Shady (and depth now), along with a solid defense. They would still be in the mid-round range. Who do you see as top QBs in next year's draft? I don't see 5 potential 1st rounders like this year.

What ifs.

What if McCarron is really, really good and we traded four picks to get a bad rookie?

 

[TKOSpikes]

I don't see who is trying to trade up that Allen wouldn't fall to us... unless the Dolphins take him at 11.

1-Darnold
2-Rosen
3-Mayfield
4-Chubb
5-Barkley
6-Nelson
7-Ward
8-McGlinchey (or Edmunds or Vea)
9-Edmunds (or James, or Vea)
10-Fitzpatrick
11-Allen (or Vea)
12-Smith (or Allen, or McGlinchey)

Or

1-Darnold
2-Barkley
3-Mayfield
4-Chubb
5-Ward? (or Rosen via Den or trade)
6-Nelson
7-Fitzpatrick (if Ward at 5, Ward if Rosen at 5)
8-McGlinchey (or Edmunds or Vea)
9-Edmunds (or James)
10-Smith (if Ward at 5, Fitzpatrick if Rosen at 5)
11-Rosen (if Ward at 5 and no trade ups, Allen if Rosen at 5...or Vea)
12-Allen (if Ward at 5, Smith if Rosen at 5...or McGlinchey, or Smith)

 

[TKOSpikes]

Basically, unless someone behind us trade ahead if us, we will have the leftover of Allen, McGlinchey, Smith and Edmunds.

 

[David_son]

I don't see who is trying to trade up that Allen wouldn't fall to us... unless the Dolphins take him at 11.

1-Darnold
2-Rosen
3-Mayfield
4-Chubb
5-Barkley
6-Nelson
7-Ward
8-McGlinchey (or Edmunds or Vea)
9-Edmunds (or James, or Vea)
10-Fitzpatrick
11-Allen (or Vea)
12-Smith (or Allen, or McGlinchey)

Or

1-Darnold
2-Barkley
3-Mayfield
4-Chubb
5-Ward? (or Rosen via Den or trade)
6-Nelson
7-Fitzpatrick (if Ward at 5, Ward if Rosen at 5)
8-McGlinchey (or Edmunds or Vea)
9-Edmunds (or James)
10-Smith (if Ward at 5, Fitzpatrick if Rosen at 5)
11-Rosen (if Ward at 5 and no trade ups, Allen if Rosen at 5...or Vea)
12-Allen (if Ward at 5, Smith if Rosen at 5...or McGlinchey, or Smith)

Allen had a good Pro Day and good combine I think its Rosen or Allen for the Jets. I dont think they traded up that far for someone they could have probably gotten at 6

 

[shopson67]

Basically, unless someone behind us trade ahead if us, we will have the leftover of Allen, McGlinchey, Smith and Edmunds.

You're assuming Baker is the 3rd guy chosen, and that's far from a guarantee. Denver could easily be looking QB, especially if Allen falls. Arizona looms as a very real trade up possibility, as neither Bradford nor Glennon are anything more than stopgap and depth, respectively.

I would LOVE it if Allen fell to #12. I just don't see it happening. There's a very real chance that the Bills are left with either Jackson at #12 or Rudolph in the second round (and depending on the early run, he could rise up the draft as well ahead of the Bills in the second).

 

[shopson67]

Basically, unless someone behind us trade ahead if us, we will have the leftover of Allen, McGlinchey, Smith and Edmunds.

I think there's a very real chance that of those, only McGlinchey is available (and might be early at #12).

 

[shopson67]

Four QB, Barkley, two ND o-linemen, couple DB, couple D line.

That's 11 without the LB... I think the DB's will go top ten. QB's and Barkley go top ten. Chubb goes top ten. That leaves four picks out of the two LB, and two O linemen. All of which I would be extremely happy with. If a Qb falls, fine...hope it's Allen.

I only see one OL (Nelson) and one DL (Chubb) going in the top 11. Top non-QB picks (no order necessarily): Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, Minkah, Roquan, Edmunds, James. Ward could crash the top 10, and Roquan does have a rumored medical red flag (but he seems like a lock for the Raiders to me). Unfortunately, the QB I potentially see falling is Mayfield, and that turns my stomach a bit.

 

[TKOSpikes]

You're assuming Baker is the 3rd guy chosen, and that's far from a guarantee. Denver could easily be looking QB, especially if Allen falls. Arizona looms as a very real trade up possibility, as neither Bradford nor Glennon are anything more than stopgap and depth, respectively.

I would LOVE it if Allen fell to #12. I just don't see it happening. There's a very real chance that the Bills are left with either Jackson at #12 or Rudolph in the second round (and depending on the early run, he could rise up the draft as well ahead of the Bills in the second).

If we traded away Taylor to draft a poor man's Taylor, I will freak out.

I don't see the problem if Denver go QB. I don't want one, so I am cheering for that...but those three DB seem to be high on the top ten teams. Barkley, Nelson and Chubb are givens. That leaves four QB and two LB. Whether anyone trades up or not.

Trading up is a massive mistake.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I only see one OL (Nelson) and one DL (Chubb) going in the top 11. Top non-QB picks (no order necessarily): Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, Minkah, Roquan, Edmunds, James. Ward could crash the top 10, and Roquan does have a rumored medical red flag (but he seems like a lock for the Raiders to me). Unfortunately, the QB I potentially see falling is Mayfield, and that turns my stomach a bit.

Yes, Mayfield is the one I really don't want.

You may be right on McGlinchey, but I forgot James. So there is still a good chance four are taken from DB/OL. I think Vea going to Miami, is highly probable too.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I only see one OL (Nelson) and one DL (Chubb) going in the top 11. Top non-QB picks (no order necessarily): Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, Minkah, Roquan, Edmunds, James. Ward could crash the top 10, and Roquan does have a rumored medical red flag (but he seems like a lock for the Raiders to me). Unfortunately, the QB I potentially see falling is Mayfield, and that turns my stomach a bit.

I would love to see four QB go in the top five. And I wonder what the price is to move from 12 to 8 to secure Roquan.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Darnold's going 1, Rosen 2, Allen 3

I don't see any QB scenario other than this one happening

there's a chance that Mayfield can make it down to us. There's a lot I like about Mayfield and a lot that worries me too

If he's available at 12 I say we take him, if someone else jumps us to take him so be it, we can take a really talented non-QB at 12 then.

 

[shopson67]

If we traded away Taylor to draft a poor man's Taylor, I will freak out.

I don't see the problem if Denver go QB. I don't want one, so I am cheering for that...but those three DB seem to be high on the top ten teams. Barkley, Nelson and Chubb are givens. That leaves four QB and two LB. Whether anyone trades up or not.

Trading up is a massive mistake.

You see the Heisman version of Taylor as the poor man's version? I would have to disagree there. He's closer to Vick than Taylor.

Regardless, all signs seem to point to the Bills trying to trade up again, like it or not. They would have to fully buy-in to one of these QBs to do so, so hopefully their evaluations are on point.

 

[TKOSpikes]

You see the Heisman version of Taylor as the poor man's version? I would have to disagree there. He's closer to Vick than Taylor.

Regardless, all signs seem to point to the Bills trying to trade up again, like it or not. They would have to fully buy-in to one of these QBs to do so, so hopefully their evaluations are on point.

Heisman is a college award. Tim Tebow is in Double-A baseball.

Allen, a sub 60% completion rate who was blasted by every decent team.
Mayfield, another short scrambling pick thrower.
Rosen, looks like Losman, plays like Cutler.
Darnold, most likely to go first.

What am I missing here? How can anyone justify trading up? Giants can get Barkley or their heir QB. I have a hard time seeing them move out. Browns at 4, could bookend their D line with Garrett and Chubb. Denver needs a QB just as bad, if they move out, what does that say about the leftover rookies? 6-10 aren't taking one, and doubtful they move back with Nelson and the quality DBs/LBs available.

It's just too pricy for these very flawed QBs. I refuse to believe professional GMs don't see that.

 

[shopson67]

Your Tebow comment has absolutely nothing to do with Jackson. A simple eye test settles that discussion.

Rosen looks more like Goff to me, albeit a more vocal (and potentially more accurate) version.

We'll see what these professional GMs think. All of the Bills moves the past two seasons under the current regime have pointed towards trading up to get their QB. Maybe they back off now, all depends on who they like out of this crop. If they didn't like someone, I doubt they would've traded Glenn for a draft pick swap to move up in the 1st. I could be wrong, of course.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

oh right, it was this whole thread where it was mentioned how little success top QB picks have had