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Thoughts on this potential resume

ericd7633

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I really find this teams resume to be quite intriguing. Was curious as to what you all thought about this team's resume should it play out according to how it should. These would be the results:

Projected record: 21-9
Projected conference record: 11-7
Projected RPI: 29
Projected SOS: 40

Those things would all indicate they should, in theory be a lock, but then take a look at this:

Projected top 50 RPI record: 1-8
Projected top 100 RPI record: 3-9
Projected record against the field: 1-8(not including some potential auto bids)

I'm trying to find some sort of historical precedence where a team with just 1 win against the top 50 and against the projected field has made it, and I haven't come up with anything yet.
 

jontaejones

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I really find this teams resume to be quite intriguing. Was curious as to what you all thought about this team's resume should it play out according to how it should. These would be the results:

Projected record: 21-9
Projected conference record: 11-7
Projected RPI: 29
Projected SOS: 40

Those things would all indicate they should, in theory be a lock, but then take a look at this:

Projected top 50 RPI record: 1-8
Projected top 100 RPI record: 3-9
Projected record against the field: 1-8(not including some potential auto bids)

I'm trying to find some sort of historical precedence where a team with just 1 win against the top 50 and against the projected field has made it, and I haven't come up with anything yet.
If it's from the Big East, Big 12, ACC, or SEC, the team is in.

If another conference, out. But come to think of it, there's no way you could be in a major conference, win 11 games, and not get the Top 50 wins.

Without cheating it looks like an AAC team who did well out of conference, stunk it up in conference...
 
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Ojb81

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I really find this teams resume to be quite intriguing. Was curious as to what you all thought about this team's resume should it play out according to how it should. These would be the results:

Projected record: 21-9
Projected conference record: 11-7
Projected RPI: 29
Projected SOS: 40

Those things would all indicate they should, in theory be a lock, but then take a look at this:

Projected top 50 RPI record: 1-8
Projected top 100 RPI record: 3-9
Projected record against the field: 1-8(not including some potential auto bids)

I'm trying to find some sort of historical precedence where a team with just 1 win against the top 50 and against the projected field has made it, and I haven't come up with anything yet.

who's the team? Duquesne Dukes?
 

ericd7633

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If it's from the Big East, Big 12, ACC, or SEC, the team is in.

If another conference, out. But come to think of it, there's no way you could be in a major conference, win 11 games, and not get the Top 50 wins.

Without cheating it looks like an AAC team who did well out of conference, stunk it up in conference...

This team is not in the AAC. Based on what you said above, you think this team should be out.
 

jontaejones

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This team is not in the AAC. Based on what you said above, you think this team should be out.

Ok. I know who it is. :dhd:

I would say based upon the RPI and numbers, slightly in actually.

But 11-7 in that conference and they're out. Will that RPI hold up through the end of the year with them going 11-7?
 

Ojb81

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so who is it? i don't really care for the sake of discussion, i'm just curious. PM it to me
 

ericd7633

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Ok. I know who it is. :dhd:

I would say based upon the RPI and numbers, slightly in actually.

But 11-7 in that conference and they're out. Will that RPI hold up through the end of the year with them going 11-7?

That record and RPI would be heading into the conference tournament. Finishing with that record they would play an absolute RPI killer in their first game, then a projected tournament team in their 2nd game. Assuming a 1-1 finish that would drop the projected RPI to the low to mid 30's.
 

ericd7633

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interesting, indeed. would not have guessed them. i gotta think that they get the nod

There is a precedence for leaving out this "type" of team with an RPI in the low 30's, but that team had a 15-12 record, so it would make a little more sense then leaving out a team with a 21-9 record.
 

Ojb81

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There is a precedence for leaving out this "type" of team with an RPI in the low 30's, but that team had a 15-12 record, so it would make a little more sense then leaving out a team with a 21-9 record.

true
 

jontaejones

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That record and RPI would be heading into the conference tournament. Finishing with that record they would play an absolute RPI killer in their first game, then a projected tournament team in their 2nd game. Assuming a 1-1 finish that would drop the projected RPI to the low to mid 30's.

I've always been a proponent of the little guy who tears through their league and then loses in the conference tournament.

So I'd rather let one of those guys in.

But with conference realignment, their RPIs are so low right now, its tough.
 

ericd7633

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I've always been a proponent of the little guy who tears through their league and then loses in the conference tournament.

So I'd rather let one of those guys in.

But with conference realignment, their RPIs are so low right now, its tough.

Yeah, I tend to agree. And this coming from a fan of a team who's benefited from being mediocre in a P5 league to get a bid. There aren't really too many of those type of teams this year unfortunately. Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, would seem like they have that potential. A team like Buffalo I could see doing it(if they win out and lose in the MACCG, they'd have a top 20 RPI, no team has ever been left out with a top 20 RPI). New Mexico State might be able to get there. I think teams like Louisiana and ETSU would be good enough(KenPom, BPI, Sagarin wise), but wouldn't have the resume, to take on a loss in the conference tournament.
 

BoiseStateFan27

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Yeah, I tend to agree. And this coming from a fan of a team who's benefited from being mediocre in a P5 league to get a bid. There aren't really too many of those type of teams this year unfortunately. Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, would seem like they have that potential. A team like Buffalo I could see doing it(if they win out and lose in the MACCG, they'd have a top 20 RPI, no team has ever been left out with a top 20 RPI). New Mexico State might be able to get there. I think teams like Louisiana and ETSU would be good enough(KenPom, BPI, Sagarin wise), but wouldn't have the resume, to take on a loss in the conference tournament.

As long as Mid Tenn State and Western Kentucky don't go losing multiple bad games I feel like they've done enough to be in, both picked up some good non-conference wins, especially Western Kentucky they beat Purdue!

It would be nice to see the Mac put multiple teams in for the first time since like the early 2000s I think

This is how they should do it but they likely won't, if they have an excuse to leave teams like us out they will do it
 

ericd7633

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As long as Mid Tenn State and Western Kentucky don't go losing multiple bad games I feel like they've done enough to be in, both picked up some good non-conference wins, especially Western Kentucky they beat Purdue!

It would be nice to see the Mac put multiple teams in for the first time since like the early 2000s I think

This is how they should do it but they likely won't, if they have an excuse to leave teams like us out they will do it

Yeah, biggest problem is that the mid and low major schools just don't have the amount of wins against the field, but they also don't have that opportunity. I do think with the new quadrant system the NCAA put in place, it will ultimately help the mid majors in the long run.
 

BoiseStateFan27

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Yeah, biggest problem is that the mid and low major schools just don't have the amount of wins against the field, but they also don't have that opportunity. I do think with the new quadrant system the NCAA put in place, it will ultimately help the mid majors in the long run.

That's my hope, because there's so few of them in the tournament lately we haven't had a good Cinderella team in years. The last one might have been Florida Gulf Coast
 

jontaejones

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As long as Mid Tenn State and Western Kentucky don't go losing multiple bad games I feel like they've done enough to be in, both picked up some good non-conference wins, especially Western Kentucky they beat Purdue!

It would be nice to see the Mac put multiple teams in for the first time since like the early 2000s I think

This is how they should do it but they likely won't, if they have an excuse to leave teams like us out they will do it
If you guys can go 13-5 or 11-7 with beating nevada then ... in.
 

rmilia1

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With 68 teams now I'd say IN. If it were still 64/65 I'd think out
 

Ottermatic

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I have an educated guess as to who it is, and if I'm right it's a team I'm strongly biased about, so I'll refrain from commenting about whether they should be in or not
 
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