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Thoughts On The 2018 Season?...Post FA/Draft

ATL96Steeler

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Well gang...the 2018 draft is in the books and for the most part FA is too. The Steelers will be going about shaping this roster.

Notable changes

Gone...Haley OC, Mike Mitchell, Martavious Bryant, William Gay, Robert Golden, JJ Wilcox

Incoming...Fichtner New OC, Karl Dunbar, new DL coach, Morgan Burnett, Nat Berhe, Jon Bostic, 2018 Draft Class, 2018 UDFA

It's official, the DB backfield has been totally transformed. Time will tell who ultimately mans the FS role, but at the very least I think they are faster, more athletic than the 2017 backfield...with a new position coach in Tom Bradley completing the turnover...if nothing else I feel better about the changes.

LB...based on their draft selections, they feel pretty good about the core group...they seem to have a lot of confidence in Dirty Red and point to his injury as compounding Shazier's...Thomas Matthew, FLA St, UDFA, is a kid to watch, the only rookie LB they are currently taking the camp. Bostic is a starting caliber player should be a factor.

OLB...pretty much the same thing...no new faces....Hopefully Adams gets his chance to show what he can do.

They get the DIV winner schedule...Home, KC, ATL, CAR, LAC, NE

Road, TB, JAX, DEN, OAK, NO

North
  • BAL...until otherwise confirmed, regardless of what their roster looks like, be ready to play on Raven week...maybe 9-7, top side 10-6

  • CIN...solid draft, might not see a ton of change on OFC...is this one last chance for Lewis or do they truly believe he can turn the ship around with Dalton. Still a lot of good players on that team...9-7

  • CLE...stock piling top 60 draft picks has to amount to something eventually, but I think baby steps...6-10
PIT is still the cream of the crop imo...conference outlook, they still need to state down NE and Brady and now JAX...11-5 type squad, and it they do that against this schedule I like their chances to get to the AFCCG.

Your thoughts?
 

FaCe-LeE-uS

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Coaching changes

Gone: OC Todd Haley, WRs Richard Mann, DBs Carnell Lake, DLine John Mitchell (even though his presence will still be in the building)
New: OC Randy Fichtner (also QB coach), WRs Darryl Drake, DBs Tom Bradley, DLine Karl Dunbar

My thoughts: Quite the turnover this season. I'm very excited to see what Fichtner, Drake, Bradley & Dunbar bring to the table. All 4 have extensive history coaching in the NCAA & NFL. Fichtner has been known to run an aggressive no-huddle style of offense, but we know that he will tailor everything to Ben. After Haley's release they got Ben to commit for another couple seasons, which was odd after so many offseasons contemplating retirement. But it doesn't take much of a stretch of the imagination to assume that Ben is going to be given complete control of this offense. We know Ben loves the no-huddle so this is a match made in heaven. Drake's coaching experience is VERY lengthy. His recent tenures in his 14-yr NFL coaching career include AZ ('13-'17) & CHI ('04-'12), working with notable WRs Larry Fitzgerald & Brandon Marshall, respectively. He also coached none other than Hines Ward at Georgia. During all those years he developed a reputation as a coach who emphasizes his wide receivers be able to deliver a hit as well as catch a pass. He is so highly regarded that SI.com named him as the receivers coach for a "dream coaching staff" in 2016. I think he will fit in well with this offense. Bradley's outlook as a coach is a bit cloudy. In recent years he has been predominantly running zone schemes. But he has recently admitted that it was simply because of his personnel. He did go on to say "at this level, you constantly have to be changing and have different variations, a lot of different things. Anything you do they are just going to pick it apart. So, we will do a lot of different things, but I guess the way it is kinda going now, as good as many of them are, I guess I’m a man guy.” Clear as mud right? The same transition to more man coverage is likely, but how much is to be determined. Bradley's experience as not only a DBs coach, but also a defensive coordinator should prove invaluable to Keith Butler, who would be wise to use Bradley as a sounding board. From what I've read Bradley is quite the fundamentals/technique guru. That should help out a lot with this young crop of DBs that sport a wide range of skill levels. Not only that, but it sounds like he is focusing on communication issues on the backend. Our prayers have been answered! I'm also praying that Bradley turns into a "Munchak hire" in terms of becoming the positional wizard/whisperer churning out starter talent on a yearly basis. Fingers crossed! Dunbar's hire was less about want and more about need once Mitchell decided to step down. We know Mitchell is being repurposed so his presence should still be felt with the D-line. But some of Dunbar's knowledge can be traced to his time playing under John Mitchell (then LBs coach) while at LSU. Dunbar also coached with Tomlin at Minnesota. So the FO is well acquainted with Dunbar. He coached in the NFL for 11 years (Bears, Vikes, Jets, Bills), and most recently 2 years at Alabama (where numerous players have been drafted in the 1st Rd during his tenure). While at Alabama he helped with the development of a dominating defensive front that in 2016 led the nation in rushing defense. And in 2017 the Bama D was 1st in total defense, 1st in rushing defense, and 1st in scoring defense. Replacing John Mitchell will be very difficult to do since he was a legend around PIT, but I have a lot of faith in Dunbar.

Personnel changes

Gone: WR Bryant, S Mitchell, S Golden (ST captain), S Wilcox, CB Gay (D captain), ILB Shazier*
New: S Morgan Burnett, S Nat Berhe, LB Jon Bostic, 2018 Draft Class, 2018 UDFA

My thoughts: From an offensive standpoint there shouldn't be any dropoff in production from the WR3 position. James Washington isn't a Marty B clone, but he doesn't have to be. With the way WRs are used in today's NFL there is no longer an X, Y, Z receiver. Offensive packages tend to rotate receivers more to keep defenses from keying on certain players. We have been seeing a lot of that sort of movement in recent years from the WR corps. Having another physical & gifted WR like Washington should provide the same sort of flexibility. My only concern is the position has lost some speed. But in comes the no-huddle philosophy. When used properly the no-huddle should keep fresh legs in the huddle & the defense out of gas. So in theory, they should be just fine without the top-flight speed of Marty B. From a defensive standpoint, we saw quite the overturn in the secondary. Out with the old & in with the new. We can all agree that Mitchell will not be missed. My biggest concern is the loss of vet leadership. Thankfully they have that in Joe Haden, and possibly the new arrival Morgan Burnett. So long as Tom Bradley develops the backend into good communicators then the loss of leadership shouldn't be much of a problem. The bigger question mark will be how the Steelers fair without the dynamic playmaker Ryan Shazier. There is some optimism around Bostic, but nobody in the ILB room has the coverage skills to do what Shazier was able to do. Not even close. It appears to me that the ILB corps is stocked with run-stuffers only. But with the new draft class we may be seeing a new defense forming with more emphasis on Safeties over LBers. Should be interesting to see how that plays out. I'm hopeful that the new personnel shores up the center of the field where the Steelers have been hurting for years.

Season outlook: Predicted 11-5 in a different thread, but could easily see 10 wins. Hard to say at this point until we see the effects that all of the above mentions. As always, I'm cautiously optimistic!
 

ATL96Steeler

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@FaCe-LeE-uS

Great work sir.

DEF...I think the staff realized that LY. Replacing Shazier really means tweaking the scheme and I think we're going to see a lot more 3 safety personnel groupings. Just what you hit on. Tomlin has already implied there will be a pkg for Edmunds. Playing behind a pretty stout NT/DE/OLB, Bostic just needs to make the routine plays in the run game and keep the play in front of him vs the pass. VW do the same thing on the other side and try to force the OFC to the nickel DEF.

Obviously time will tell, but it looks like Tomlin/Colbert favor the S, over the smallish LB. Will these smaller, faster hybrid-like LB/S be effective when teams like JAX with big RBs run at them on 3rd and 4 or 5?

Leadership...yeah, but I'm less concerned now and to turnover the entire Safety room, Tomlin can't be too concerned either. Burns and Davis are 3rd yr guys now. Hilton came in and learned fast, Sutton got a season to watch but also got a taste, and known to be a fast study also...Burnett and Haden are vets so they need to get on the same page with communication early and nurture the young pup Edmunds along.

DL...coach Mitch's contract is up at the end of the year and he will be moving on from I'm hearing. They just decided to make the DL position coach change this season...reportedly he had some influence in the Dunbar hire....Bradley is the one I think we all want to see what he brings. I'm particularly curious to see what he does with Burns and his off ball technique.

OFC...Ben get's his hand picked OC, I expect a little less of Bell, particularly 3 consecutive touch sequences. Maybe a little more no-huddle and spreading it around. Between Washington and Samuels I'm not that concerned about replacing MB's production...I'm excited to see this group.

I'm in the same boat on the record...I think there are 11-12 wins out there...every year there's something you don't foresee happening...LY was JAX. We'll have to see what the final 53 looks like. We knew we weren't going to have Shazier, but I'm liking what I'm seeing better with Haley, Mitchell, and Gay gone.
 
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