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Brasky
Till We Can't Be Beat. WON'T. BE. BEAT.
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Chatelain: With NU turnovers, foes take away wins - Omaha.com
As Bo Pelini sits down this offseason and charts a path to a 2012 Big Ten championship, he should highlight one number.
Minus-8.
That is Nebraska's turnover margin since Pelini's arrival: 86 takeaways, 94 giveaways.
Say what you want about dropped passes, penalties, Taylor Martinez's completion percentage or the Blackshirts' third-down defense. Each needs improvement.
But turnover margin — more than any other phase of the game — has separated Nebraska from college football's top tier. Bridge the gap, and Pelini's path to BCS bowl games gets much easier.
Consider the data:
• Nebraska is one of the nation's 25 best programs by winning percentage the past four years. Of that group, NU ranks 25th in turnover margin. Dead last.
Minus-8 isn't so bad compared to schools like Akron, Minnesota and Colorado. But those aren't Nebraska's competitive peers.
How does minus-8 compare with Ohio State? The Buckeyes are plus-53 the past four years.
How 'bout Alabama? The Tide is plus-45. Oklahoma is plus-39. Oklahoma State is plus-38. LSU is plus-35. You get the picture.
• The Huskers have faced 17 ranked teams under Pelini.
In games when they lose the turnover battle, they are 0-9. When they win the turnover battle, they are 4-0. When turnovers are equal, Nebraska is 3-1.
Their total turnover margin in those big games is minus-12 (20 takeaways, 32 giveaways).
Against the Top 10, the ratio is worse. In nine games, Nebraska has more than twice as many giveaways (20) as takeaways (8). That helps explain NU's 2-7 record.
• Turnovers represent a key factor in determining wins and losses. This year, aside from Nebraska, only four other teams with negative turnover margins finished in the Top 25. In 2010, only one other team did it.
Since 2004, the Huskers finished just one season ('09) with a positive turnover margin. They were minus-1 this year.
A bad turnover margin equates to fewer possessions and fewer scoring opportunities. More important, turnovers are momentum plays. For a team like Nebraska, which didn't handle adversity well in 2011, one turnover can change an outcome.
Put it all together and it's somewhat remarkable that Nebraska is 38-16 the past four years, the 19th-best record nationally. Essentially, Pelini and the Huskers have been trying to win a race with one shoe untied.
Defense also to blame
Since 2008, only three of the top 25 programs have lost more turnovers than Nebraska's 94. It's mostly a fumble problem. NU's 55 fumbles are among the highest in the country and nearly equal to Alabama's total giveaways (57).
But this isn't just about the offense. In fact, the biggest culprit in NU's turnover margin is the defense.
Among the 25 best programs since 2008, Nebraska ranks last in takeaways with 86. (Oklahoma State, by comparison, has 133.)
BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS
World-Herald staff writer Dirk Chatelain takes a closer look at the NCAA turnover statistics. CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW to launch a full-size PDF to really dive into the numbers.
The Huskers' 61 interceptions is respectable. But they are abysmal at forcing and recovering fumbles.
Nebraska has 25 fumble recoveries in four years — that includes fumble recoveries on special teams and by the Huskers' offense (remember Quincy Enunwa's forced fumble after a Fresno State interception, for instance).
How low is 25 recoveries? It ranks 119th out of 120 teams nationally. Michigan had 20 this year alone.
By now, Nebraska's turnover troubles are nothing new.
Bill Callahan's teams were minus-30 from 2004-07, including minus-17 the season he was fired. That was second-to-last nationally.
Pelini improved the number in 2008, but not by much. Nebraska was 107th nationally — minus-11 overall.
Thanks to a great defense, NU turned it around in 2009, especially in big games. It was plus-4 in five showdowns against ranked teams. The Blackshirts intercepted Landry Jones five times. They picked off Colt McCoy three times.
Those performances were reminiscent of 2003, when Pelini took over the Blackshirts and finished second nationally with 47 takeaways.
But since Ndamukong Suh left, the Blackshirts have struggled to take the ball away. Combined with a sporadic offense, it's been a bad formula.
The past two years, Nebraska has faced nine Top 25 teams. The cumulative turnover margin: seven takeaways, 17 giveaways.
Against ranked teams, the Blackshirts haven't recorded more than one takeaway in any single game.
Turnovers defined '11
That's the evidence. Now, how does Pelini fix it?
Offensively, it starts with Martinez, who needs to fine-tune his passing and decision-making. NU's skill players, meanwhile, must continue to improve ball security; they were better in 2011 than in 2010, but still not good enough.
Defense is more complicated. How can Pelini generate more takeaways?
Nebraska's scheme is relatively conservative. Bo is cautious with blitzes. His defensive ends often act as containers more than pass rushers. He wants to prevent the big play. Bend but don't break.
That strategy has served him well most of his career. But one of the drawbacks of conservatism is a lack of pressure on the opposing offense. Pressure produces takeaways.
Is it time for Pelini to be more aggressive? Take more chances?
Turnovers, for better or worse, helped define Nebraska's 2011 season.
Look at Lance Thorell's interception against Michigan State, which set the tone for a dominant performance. Look at Lavonte David's strip of Ohio State's Braxton Miller, which jump-started the largest comeback in school history.
On the other hand, in each blowout loss — Wisconsin, Michigan, South Carolina — the Huskers finished minus-2 in turnover margin.
At Wisconsin, three Martinez interceptions near halftime turned a knee-knocker into a drubbing. At Michigan, two fumbles on kickoff returns ruined Husker hopes. Against South Carolina, a pair of second-quarter turnovers cost NU dearly.
Between now and September, the Huskers can refine schemes and tweak depth charts. They can get stronger physically and mentally. But turnover margin is the best shortcut to a Big Ten championship.
Nebraska needs to take that one dismal statistic — and turn it upside down.
Chatelain: With NU turnovers, foes take away wins - Omaha.com
As Bo Pelini sits down this offseason and charts a path to a 2012 Big Ten championship, he should highlight one number.
Minus-8.
That is Nebraska's turnover margin since Pelini's arrival: 86 takeaways, 94 giveaways.
Say what you want about dropped passes, penalties, Taylor Martinez's completion percentage or the Blackshirts' third-down defense. Each needs improvement.
But turnover margin — more than any other phase of the game — has separated Nebraska from college football's top tier. Bridge the gap, and Pelini's path to BCS bowl games gets much easier.
Consider the data:
• Nebraska is one of the nation's 25 best programs by winning percentage the past four years. Of that group, NU ranks 25th in turnover margin. Dead last.
Minus-8 isn't so bad compared to schools like Akron, Minnesota and Colorado. But those aren't Nebraska's competitive peers.
How does minus-8 compare with Ohio State? The Buckeyes are plus-53 the past four years.
How 'bout Alabama? The Tide is plus-45. Oklahoma is plus-39. Oklahoma State is plus-38. LSU is plus-35. You get the picture.
• The Huskers have faced 17 ranked teams under Pelini.
In games when they lose the turnover battle, they are 0-9. When they win the turnover battle, they are 4-0. When turnovers are equal, Nebraska is 3-1.
Their total turnover margin in those big games is minus-12 (20 takeaways, 32 giveaways).
Against the Top 10, the ratio is worse. In nine games, Nebraska has more than twice as many giveaways (20) as takeaways (8). That helps explain NU's 2-7 record.
• Turnovers represent a key factor in determining wins and losses. This year, aside from Nebraska, only four other teams with negative turnover margins finished in the Top 25. In 2010, only one other team did it.
Since 2004, the Huskers finished just one season ('09) with a positive turnover margin. They were minus-1 this year.
A bad turnover margin equates to fewer possessions and fewer scoring opportunities. More important, turnovers are momentum plays. For a team like Nebraska, which didn't handle adversity well in 2011, one turnover can change an outcome.
Put it all together and it's somewhat remarkable that Nebraska is 38-16 the past four years, the 19th-best record nationally. Essentially, Pelini and the Huskers have been trying to win a race with one shoe untied.
Defense also to blame
Since 2008, only three of the top 25 programs have lost more turnovers than Nebraska's 94. It's mostly a fumble problem. NU's 55 fumbles are among the highest in the country and nearly equal to Alabama's total giveaways (57).
But this isn't just about the offense. In fact, the biggest culprit in NU's turnover margin is the defense.
Among the 25 best programs since 2008, Nebraska ranks last in takeaways with 86. (Oklahoma State, by comparison, has 133.)
BREAKING DOWN THE NUMBERS
World-Herald staff writer Dirk Chatelain takes a closer look at the NCAA turnover statistics. CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW to launch a full-size PDF to really dive into the numbers.
The Huskers' 61 interceptions is respectable. But they are abysmal at forcing and recovering fumbles.
Nebraska has 25 fumble recoveries in four years — that includes fumble recoveries on special teams and by the Huskers' offense (remember Quincy Enunwa's forced fumble after a Fresno State interception, for instance).
How low is 25 recoveries? It ranks 119th out of 120 teams nationally. Michigan had 20 this year alone.
By now, Nebraska's turnover troubles are nothing new.
Bill Callahan's teams were minus-30 from 2004-07, including minus-17 the season he was fired. That was second-to-last nationally.
Pelini improved the number in 2008, but not by much. Nebraska was 107th nationally — minus-11 overall.
Thanks to a great defense, NU turned it around in 2009, especially in big games. It was plus-4 in five showdowns against ranked teams. The Blackshirts intercepted Landry Jones five times. They picked off Colt McCoy three times.
Those performances were reminiscent of 2003, when Pelini took over the Blackshirts and finished second nationally with 47 takeaways.
But since Ndamukong Suh left, the Blackshirts have struggled to take the ball away. Combined with a sporadic offense, it's been a bad formula.
The past two years, Nebraska has faced nine Top 25 teams. The cumulative turnover margin: seven takeaways, 17 giveaways.
Against ranked teams, the Blackshirts haven't recorded more than one takeaway in any single game.
Turnovers defined '11
That's the evidence. Now, how does Pelini fix it?
Offensively, it starts with Martinez, who needs to fine-tune his passing and decision-making. NU's skill players, meanwhile, must continue to improve ball security; they were better in 2011 than in 2010, but still not good enough.
Defense is more complicated. How can Pelini generate more takeaways?
Nebraska's scheme is relatively conservative. Bo is cautious with blitzes. His defensive ends often act as containers more than pass rushers. He wants to prevent the big play. Bend but don't break.
That strategy has served him well most of his career. But one of the drawbacks of conservatism is a lack of pressure on the opposing offense. Pressure produces takeaways.
Is it time for Pelini to be more aggressive? Take more chances?
Turnovers, for better or worse, helped define Nebraska's 2011 season.
Look at Lance Thorell's interception against Michigan State, which set the tone for a dominant performance. Look at Lavonte David's strip of Ohio State's Braxton Miller, which jump-started the largest comeback in school history.
On the other hand, in each blowout loss — Wisconsin, Michigan, South Carolina — the Huskers finished minus-2 in turnover margin.
At Wisconsin, three Martinez interceptions near halftime turned a knee-knocker into a drubbing. At Michigan, two fumbles on kickoff returns ruined Husker hopes. Against South Carolina, a pair of second-quarter turnovers cost NU dearly.
Between now and September, the Huskers can refine schemes and tweak depth charts. They can get stronger physically and mentally. But turnover margin is the best shortcut to a Big Ten championship.
Nebraska needs to take that one dismal statistic — and turn it upside down.
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