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The Washington Wizards Game Day Thread

MHSL82

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Get Favors and Mitchell off the court right now!!! That is all. I will forgive you if we lose a 33 point lead in the last 14 minutes with our reserves in. It's 83-50 right now and they are in.
 

MHSL82

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We played 18:44 of meaningless basketball. Just kidding, we scored 71 points by the 6:44 mark of the third. Wizards scored 69 in the entire game. The final score was the biggest lead and yes, they did put in the reserves, a little later than I wanted.
 

nuraman00

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Get Favors and Mitchell off the court right now!!! That is all.

I didn't know what happened in the game. So when I read this, I was wondering what they did on the court that was so bad.

I will forgive you if we lose a 33 point lead in the last 14 minutes with our reserves in. It's 83-50 right now and they are in.

I won't forgive Snyder. I've seen / monitored multiple games where teams lost 27 point 4th quarter leads and lost the game.

1) Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers Box Score, December 6, 2002 | Basketball-Reference.com

This one hurt because Dallas had a chance to end their 23 game road losing streak to the Lakers. They hadn't won there since 1990.

They lost the 27 point 4th quarter lead, they lost the game, and they'd lose the next 2 times also to make it a 25 game road losing streak to the Lakers, before finally ending it.

2) Ok, this was a 24 point lead with 9:13 to go. Not 27.

Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies Play-By-Play, April 29, 2012 | Basketball-Reference.com

It hurts because it's the playoffs.

Ok, it was 27 points with 14:12 to go.


3) This lead isn't the same absolute value, but still astonishing to me.

Chicago had a 12 point lead at home with 3:14 to go in game 5, and got outscored 18-3 to lose the series 4-1 in that 5th game.

I've seen 10 point leads blown with 2 minutes to go, but not a # 1 seed like Chicago in the playoffs.
 

nuraman00

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We played 18:44 of meaningless basketball. Just kidding, we scored 71 points by the 6:44 mark of the third. Wizards scored 69 in the entire game. The final score was the biggest lead and yes, they did put in the reserves, a little later than I wanted.

How did the reserves do? Did they maintain, expand, or shrink the lead?
 

MHSL82

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How did the reserves do? Did they maintain, expand, or shrink the lead?

The reserves turned a 33 point lead into a 47 point lead, I think. I think the coaching staff listened to me. ;)

When I say forgive, let's just say that I am paranoid about Mitchell being Exum'd - as in injured in a meaningless game or a meaningless time. Exum got injured in an international game and then in a Summer League or Preseason game. I know that you can slip in the shower. I know that you can get injured during a competitive game, but please get the F off the court when you are playing a lifeless Wizards team up by 33 points. It's one flippin' game of 82. I'll play the odds. I couldn't watch the game so I wasn't sure if the Wizards would be chippy and cheap or lethargic and quit, but I was sure they weren't going to win.
 

nuraman00

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The reserves turned a 33 point lead into a 47 point lead, I think. I think the coaching staff listened to me. ;)

When I say forgive, let's just say that I am paranoid about Mitchell being Exum'd - as in injured in a meaningless game or a meaningless time. Exum got injured in an international game and then in a Summer League or Preseason game. I know that you can slip in the shower. I know that you can get injured during a competitive game, but please get the F off the court when you are playing a lifeless Wizards team up by 33 points. It's one flippin' game of 82. I'll play the odds. I couldn't watch the game so I wasn't sure if the Wizards would be chippy and cheap or lethargic and quit, but I was sure they weren't going to win.


What team doesn't look lifeless when down 27? ;)

Would you have taken the odds in those first two games I mentioned above? Wouldn't most fans be sure the team up 27 would win in those examples?

One other factor I'll mention.

The Jazz don't have much of a buffer to make the playoffs. Every win matters.

If it were the Warriors or Celtics or Spurs or Rockets or Cavs, then every win doesn't matter. They'll make the playoffs as good seeds.

So I would say, for me, that if I was sure the Jazz were going to win a lot of games, then give the bench more opportunity, even if the lead starts to shrink.

But because I don't know if the Jazz will make the playoffs, I don't want to look back and say 1 or 2 games was the difference between making it and not making it. Or between the 7th and the 5th seeds.

Also, the Jazz have historically shown they don't handle prosperity.

They weren't supposed to lose that regular season finale against Black Moldy, especially when they were leading for most of the game, but they lost, AND gave up 60 to him.

The Jazz had a lead in the 1998 NBA Finals, and lost.

Yes, they held onto their 1-0 and 3-2 leads against the Clippers last year. That's about the only time I can think of right now that they handled prosperity.

I don't trust the Jazz.

They also set infamous history by being the only team in history to lead their division after the All-Star break, and not make the playoffs, in 2011. Another example of not handling prosperity.
 

nuraman00

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Thanks for letting me know the bench expanded the lead.

That increases a few micro steps in terms of how much more I trust them.
 

MHSL82

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What team doesn't look lifeless when down 27? ;)

Would you have taken the odds in those first two games I mentioned above? Wouldn't most fans be sure the team up 27 would win in those examples?

One other factor I'll mention.

The Jazz don't have much of a buffer to make the playoffs. Every win matters.

If it were the Warriors or Celtics or Spurs or Rockets or Cavs, then every win doesn't matter. They'll make the playoffs as good seeds.

So I would say, for me, that if I was sure the Jazz were going to win a lot of games, then give the bench more opportunity, even if the lead starts to shrink.

But because I don't know if the Jazz will make the playoffs, I don't want to look back and say 1 or 2 games was the difference between making it and not making it. Or between the 7th and the 5th seeds.

Also, the Jazz have historically shown they don't handle prosperity.

They weren't supposed to lose that regular season finale against Black Moldy, especially when they were leading for most of the game, but they lost, AND gave up 60 to him.

The Jazz had a lead in the 1998 NBA Finals, and lost.

Yes, they held onto their 1-0 and 3-2 leads against the Clippers last year. That's about the only time I can think of right now that they handled prosperity.

I don't trust the Jazz.

They also set infamous history by being the only team in history to lead their division after the All-Star break, and not make the playoffs, in 2011. Another example of not handling prosperity.

Freak accidents are more likely than losing a 27 point lead in the fourth quarter. Or a 33 point lead. I understand that a team can score plenty of points to catch up, but freak accidents or petty cheap files are more common, in my opinion. I don't have stats on injuries whether they range from a lingering injury you play through, a few weeks missed, or worse. Or even hitting a rookie wall by tiring yourself out. Heck, we had a game the next night. That we ended up losing in the fourth quarter because maybe we were tired. I know that they can happen any time on the court or off, but I'm paranoid and feel that one game is not worth putting your players in harms way when you're up by 33 points.

Having said that, I feel strongly that you need to draft for depth, develop your bench, and run the same offense with your reserves trying to score in the fourth. I don't believe in running out the clock if you have your reserves in the game. If you have your starters in the game, fine, run the clock out for sportsmanship. In the last minute or so, make a deliberate halt if you're up bye 15+. Tracy McGrady broke the 10 point rule so I would say 15.

You gave me three good examples, but you could give me 20 and I would still feel getting your player off the court is better. You could give me 10 examples of someone slipping in the shower or doing some other non-activity and getting injured and I would still say the same thing.

Would I be upset if we lost a big lead like that? Yes. But I think I would be understanding. All bets are off in the NBA finals, especially in a game 7 or something. There was a playoff game where a receiver caught the ball with 1 foot in bounds and 1 foot out of bounds and he was interviewed after and he said that he could have gotten both feet in but he felt like he was gonna break his leg to do so. In the playoffs, break your f'ing leg.
 

MHSL82

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What team doesn't look lifeless when down 27? ;)

Would you have taken the odds in those first two games I mentioned above? Wouldn't most fans be sure the team up 27 would win in those examples?

One other factor I'll mention.

The Jazz don't have much of a buffer to make the playoffs. Every win matters.

If it were the Warriors or Celtics or Spurs or Rockets or Cavs, then every win doesn't matter. They'll make the playoffs as good seeds.

So I would say, for me, that if I was sure the Jazz were going to win a lot of games, then give the bench more opportunity, even if the lead starts to shrink.

But because I don't know if the Jazz will make the playoffs, I don't want to look back and say 1 or 2 games was the difference between making it and not making it. Or between the 7th and the 5th seeds.

Also, the Jazz have historically shown they don't handle prosperity.

They weren't supposed to lose that regular season finale against Black Moldy, especially when they were leading for most of the game, but they lost, AND gave up 60 to him.

The Jazz had a lead in the 1998 NBA Finals, and lost.

Yes, they held onto their 1-0 and 3-2 leads against the Clippers last year. That's about the only time I can think of right now that they handled prosperity.

I don't trust the Jazz.

They also set infamous history by being the only team in history to lead their division after the All-Star break, and not make the playoffs, in 2011. Another example of not handling prosperity.

OK, to more substantively respond to your post, I would say that if you lose the 33 point lead in the fourth quarter and you're not a sure fire playoff team, I would say you don't deserve to be in the playoffs unless you make up for enough with other games. We simply cannot lose a 33 point lead. Mitchell getting injured is worth more than one game. Mitchell being tired the next night could have lost so when double game. It could speed up the rookie wall. There are plenty of other opportunities in the season to break the bank to sell out for a win. By the way, I went to the biggest comeback in NBA history game against Denver when I was a kid. I told my uncle that we were going to win the game because we scored the last basket or so in the second quarter. When it up winning by 11 or something which was crazy. But that wasn't a fourth-quarter comeback.
 

nuraman00

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Freak accidents are more likely than losing a 27 point lead in the fourth quarter. Or a 33 point lead. I understand that a team can score plenty of points to catch up, but freak accidents or petty cheap files are more common, in my opinion. I don't have stats on injuries whether they range from a lingering injury you play through, a few weeks missed, or worse. Or even hitting a rookie wall by tiring yourself out. Heck, we had a game the next night. That we ended up losing in the fourth quarter because maybe we were tired. I know that they can happen any time on the court or off, but I'm paranoid and feel that one game is not worth putting your players in harms way when you're up by 33 points.

Having said that, I feel strongly that you need to draft for depth, develop your bench, and run the same offense with your reserves trying to score in the fourth. I don't believe in running out the clock if you have your reserves in the game. If you have your starters in the game, fine, run the clock out for sportsmanship. In the last minute or so, make a deliberate halt if you're up bye 15+. Tracy McGrady broke the 10 point rule so I would say 15.

You gave me three good examples, but you could give me 20 and I would still feel getting your player off the court is better. You could give me 10 examples of someone slipping in the shower or doing some other non-activity and getting injured and I would still say the same thing.

Would I be upset if we lost a big lead like that? Yes. But I think I would be understanding. All bets are off in the NBA finals, especially in a game 7 or something. There was a playoff game where a receiver caught the ball with 1 foot in bounds and 1 foot out of bounds and he was interviewed after and he said that he could have gotten both feet in but he felt like he was gonna break his leg to do so. In the playoffs, break your f'ing leg.


I agree about developing the bench. And I'd want them to play the same way as the starters.

I'd want them to expand the lead if possible. Not to rub it in, but because it's good to see them play well and will help in the future; and because I still don't feel comfortable with a low 30s lead with 12+ mins left. Or even a 19 point lead with 6 mins left.

I'd want whoever is on the court to keep playing to expand the lead, until 2 minutes left with a 10+ lead, or your proposal 1 minute left with a 15 point lead. Only then is something "safe" (until some team breaks that obstacle).

No lead is safe with 4 minutes left, period. Teams can sometimes score 30 points in 4 minutes.

If the reserves had shrunken the lead to 12 points, then I'd want some starters back in.

I remember when Janerro Pargo personally scored 9 points and an assist in the game's final 13 seconds to tie the game in the playoffs. Gilbert Arenas then hit the game-winner to break the time with 2 or 3 seconds left.

I don't plan for freak accidents, because I can't come up with a scenario in which I think they're more likely to occur. To me, they can occur in close games or blowouts. So because to me, it's too indeterminate, I don't account for them.
 

nuraman00

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OK, to more substantively respond to your post, I would say that if you lose the 33 point lead in the fourth quarter and you're not a sure fire playoff team, I would say you don't deserve to be in the playoffs unless you make up for enough with other games. We simply cannot lose a 33 point lead. Mitchell getting injured is worth more than one game. Mitchell being tired the next night could have lost so when double game. It could speed up the rookie wall. There are plenty of other opportunities in the season to break the bank to sell out for a win. By the way, I went to the biggest comeback in NBA history game against Denver when I was a kid. I told my uncle that we were going to win the game because we scored the last basket or so in the second quarter. When it up winning by 11 or something which was crazy. But that wasn't a fourth-quarter comeback.


Thanks.

That was the game where the Jazz were down by 36 at the half, right? I think you posted it before.

And you were reminded of it when in 2009 the Kings came back from down 35 against the Bulls.

I'm still not certain that 35 points is the largest comeback, I think it's only the largest halftime comeback.

There is probably some game in which a team had a 37 point lead in the first quarter or early in the second, to lose the game. Maybe I'm wrong.

On a side note, I don't believe in the tired or back to back excuse. There's historical data that shows that teams generally play to their winning percentage on back to backs.

If it's 4 in 5 nights, or 5 in 7 nights, then I'll account for it sometimes, but regular back to backs, no.

In 2005-2006, the Clippers lost their first 13 games on the first night of backs to backs, and were +.500 on the second night.

I think the quality of the opponent matters more than where there were 0 days off.

Look at last night. Portland had 2 days of rest at home. Washington was on a back to back. And Portland got blown out at home.

If a team is a great team, I expect blowout wins on the 2nd night of a back to back, occasionally. And it does happen.

If it's a bad team, I expect a team to get blown out no matter how many days of rest they had.

BTW, I was responding "thanks" specifically for this part of your thoughts:


OK, to more substantively respond to your post, I would say that if you lose the 33 point lead in the fourth quarter and you're not a sure fire playoff team, I would say you don't deserve to be in the playoffs unless you make up for enough with other games.

Hopefully if the Jazz had lost that 33 point lead and the game, they'd have a few unexpected wins soon. I think that's how they'd make up for it.
 

MHSL82

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I agree about developing the bench. And I'd want them to play the same way as the starters.

I'd want them to expand the lead if possible. Not to rub it in, but because it's good to see them play well and will help in the future; and because I still don't feel comfortable with a low 30s lead with 12+ mins left. Or even a 19 point lead with 6 mins left.

I'd want whoever is on the court to keep playing to expand the lead, until 2 minutes left with a 10+ lead, or your proposal 1 minute left with a 15 point lead. Only then is something "safe" (until some team breaks that obstacle).

No lead is safe with 4 minutes left, period. Teams can sometimes score 30 points in 4 minutes.

If the reserves had shrunken the lead to 12 points, then I'd want some starters back in.

I remember when Janerro Pargo personally scored 9 points and an assist in the game's final 13 seconds to tie the game in the playoffs. Gilbert Arenas then hit the game-winner to break the time with 2 or 3 seconds left.

I don't plan for freak accidents, because I can't come up with a scenario in which I think they're more likely to occur. To me, they can occur in close games or blowouts. So because to me, it's too indeterminate, I don't account for them.

If freak accidents occur in close games, c'est la vie. If they happen in the shower, that is life. But if they happen in competition in a 33 point blowout when they could've been sitting on the bench, by mere fact that sitting on a bench doesn't injure you, you may have avoided an injury. Maybe you sit on the bench and then slip on the way out in the tunnel? Who knows? Still, if Mitchell hurts his knee like a bear in the fourth quarter by 33 points, I'm pretty upset. If he gets hurt with a one point lead or down by one, I am sad but not feeling remorse.
 

MHSL82

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Thanks.

That was the game where the Jazz were down by 36 at the half, right? I think you posted it before.

And you were reminded of it when in 2009 the Kings came back from down 35 against the Bulls.

I'm still not certain that 35 points is the largest comeback, I think it's only the largest halftime comeback.

There is probably some game in which a team had a 37 point lead in the first quarter or early in the second, to lose the game. Maybe I'm wrong.

On a side note, I don't believe in the tired or back to back excuse. There's historical data that shows that teams generally play to their winning percentage on back to backs.

If it's 4 in 5 nights, or 5 in 7 nights, then I'll account for it sometimes, but regular back to backs, no.

In 2005-2006, the Clippers lost their first 13 games on the first night of backs to backs, and were +.500 on the second night.

I think the quality of the opponent matters more than where there were 0 days off.

Look at last night. Portland had 2 days of rest at home. Washington was on a back to back. And Portland got blown out at home.

If a team is a great team, I expect blowout wins on the 2nd night of a back to back, occasionally. And it does happen.

If it's a bad team, I expect a team to get blown out no matter how many days of rest they had.

BTW, I was responding "thanks" specifically for this part of your thoughts:




Hopefully if the Jazz had lost that 33 point lead and the game, they'd have a few unexpected wins soon. I think that's how they'd make up for it.

I will say that playing a lot of minutes on the front end of a back to back does not increase your chances of winning the next game. But playing on the court versus sitting on the bench does increase your chances of a freak or retaliation injury, it is not as good. You obviously still can win or lose either game and great teams are better than bad teams, but I don't see a causation effect. Since it doesn't help and it in certain cases can hurt, I say put them on the bench as soon as you comfortably can. I think 33 points with a quarter to go is safe and if you lose, you deserve it. I think certain players can be exceptions because playing longer may help their development, assuming they don't get injured. But I still say sit them.
 

nuraman00

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@nuraman00 : I thought you might enjoy the recap of the December games in this article. It talks about Back to Backs and the effects of playing them: Schedule alert! Every game tired teams should lose in January

I looked through the December version last month.

I don't enjoy this too much yet, as I don't know what goes into the Mah score calculation.

I don't know how much weight they put in the quality of the opponent.

And I don't think they did a good job highlighting their alert games if they didn't have any teams with a high score who were on the 2nd end of a road-home back to back. There are times when the home team won't win either.

I also think Sacramento will lose the alert game to Denver, even if Sacramento has 3 days of rest. I don't think they are taking enough account into how bad Sacramento can be. I don't know how this ranks across the league, but they have lost 6 times by 25+ points so far.

They also didn't highlight any games on the first end of a back to back.

The Clippers started one year by losing their first 12 on the first end of a back to back, while having a +.500 record on the second end. The Clippers were probably not a good team that year (I'd have to check which season it was).

So, I need to see more of what goes into Mah score calculations, and I might have suggestions as to other factors they should incorporate.

Back in 2009, Portland had a Sleep Doctor. He said that when traveling West to East, that instead of practicing the next morning, they should practice at 10pm EST at night the previous night, because that's when they'd be used to playing games PST.

This Is Why Sleep Is So Important to Athletic Performance

Look at the Raiders. They had 9 days of rest, and got blown out to Buffalo.

They had 2 weeks of rest, then scored 8 points against New England.
 
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