The Lay of the League's Land in 2017: Complete Standings and Playoff Predictions

[Southieinnc]

First off, thanks for dropping in and reading my post.

......For 2017 my explanation is simple: the 14-2 Patriots even at home will not be as good as a battle tested and hardened 11-5 Broncos team coming off a playoff win. Should my prediction turn out to be true it won't be the first time a lower seed knocked off the #1 seed in the divisional round......
Keep in mind in the AFCCG
.

The Patriots were beat up when they lost to a good defense in 2015. Interesting that you are predicting a
battle-tested (beat up) Broncos to beat a Patriots team that you say will have a cakewalk.

I don't think the Pats want to play the AFCCG in Denver and more than the Broncos want to go to Foxborough!

This is why we play the game. Enjoy your season!

 

[58crash]

Patriots will hit a brick wall and finish out of the playoff's ,Brady will get hurt like all aging QB's and will never look good again .

I think Broncos are still not going to the playoffs Wish they were just think not happening . My guess 5-11

 

[58crash]

Teams will be after Brady with all they got . Players in his division will go after him and late hit him with all they got ..they did the same to Manning .

 

[iknowftbll]

The Patriots were beat up when they lost to a good defense in 2015. Interesting that you are predicting a
battle-tested (beat up) Broncos to beat a Patriots team that you say will have a cakewalk.

I don't think the Pats want to play the AFCCG in Denver and more than the Broncos want to go to Foxborough!

This is why we play the game. Enjoy your season!

I am going to politely but without reservation call bullshit on this.



Part of the narrative going into that AFCCG was the "Pats are healthy" and there was no way the Broncos could beat a healthy Pats team. There was a lot made of some of the Pats' missing pieces from the regular season game, but the same people making those arguments forgot to mention the Broncos had a QB making his second NFL start in that one.

Either way you slice it, trying to change the narrative now is pointless. The Broncos just flat out were the better team in 2 tries in 2015.

Lastly I disagree that battle tested = beat up. That 2015 team was battle tested. If the Broncos schedule in 2017 is as tough as it looks from here and they still reach 11-5 or even 10-6 they will be a pretty battle tested team once again.

 

[cdumler7]

He wouldn't be the first to think that. In the minds of the sports media it's already a done deal and the entire 2017 season will be nothing but a formality. Just like the 2015 AFCCG in Denver was a mere formality, a nuisance in between the Patriots and their next Super Bowl!

I definitely get why Pats fans are excited for this season. They have plenty to base that on of why they think their team will once again be in the Super Bowl. I just know also though that having 2 straight seasons without a single mess up or huge injury that completely derails the season is hard to do. And yes I remember people predicting that 2015 AFC Championship game to be a huge blowout. Seem like Teddy Bruschi or somebody like that predicted the Pats to put up 42 points on our defense and win a laugher of a game. Same with the Super Bowl that year after the Panthers had just ran over every team in the playoffs. This is why sometimes the most talented team (I wouldn't say the Broncos were the most talented team that year) doesn't win the Super Bowl. There are plenty of teams that just get locked in at the right time and boom become Super Bowl Champs.

 

[iknowftbll]

I definitely get why Pats fans are excited for this season. They have plenty to base that on of why they think their team will once again be in the Super Bowl. I just know also though that having 2 straight seasons without a single mess up or huge injury that completely derails the season is hard to do. And yes I remember people predicting that 2015 AFC Championship game to be a huge blowout. Seem like Teddy Bruschi or somebody like that predicted the Pats to put up 42 points on our defense and win a laugher of a game. Same with the Super Bowl that year after the Panthers had just ran over every team in the playoffs. This is why sometimes the most talented team (I wouldn't say the Broncos were the most talented team that year) doesn't win the Super Bowl. There are plenty of teams that just get locked in at the right time and boom become Super Bowl Champs.

Definitely. We very painfully saw that in 2012. That team along with the 2005 team seemed so probable a Super Bowl champ and instead they'll eventually be little more than footnotes in the league's history. And of course there are dozens of other teams like them that fit that description.

 

[cdumler7]

Definitely. We very painfully saw that in 2012. That team along with the 2005 team seemed so probable a Super Bowl champ and instead they'll eventually be little more than footnotes in the league's history. And of course there are dozens of other teams like them that fit that description.

I would say during the Manning years that 2012 team was by far our best team. Top-5 offense and defense and an electric special teams unit. Just got caught on a very bad day to have one of our worst games of the season.

That team also is a great note when talking about being battle tested. I think the Broncos had gone something like 11 weeks with winning games by 7 points or more. They hadn't been in a tough battle for a while. They were blowing teams out and I think they got a little relaxed thinking they had just blown out the Ravens a few weeks earlier so this should be a cake walk and well it was anything but that.

 

[58crash]

What no one will tell me I am full of crap about at least about NE ..

They have played way to many games and the SB add in not much turn around time and Brady is 40 guess what he will look great the first few weeks then boom ........................................................................!

That is what happened to the Broncos last year .. To many snaps for our D the year before and not enough time off between seasons . They were damn tired by week 4 .

 

[cdumler7]

What no one will tell me I am full of crap about at least about NE ..

They have played way to many games and the SB add in not much turn around and Brady is 40 guess what he will look great the first few weeks then boom ........................................................................!

It is bound to happen. I remember when it happened to Manning. 4 weeks left in the 2014 season. He was on pace to get into the mid-40's for touchdowns and have one of his top-3 seasons ever. Then he hit that wall and finished the season throwing 3 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and his playoff game against the Colts was down right terrible. Kept thinking he just needed an offseason to heal and he would be back to vintage Peyton but he just never got it back.

Happens to every QB and you just never know when it is going to hit.

 

[randymon]

I think more people should be worried about Belichek and company than TB. He made Cassel look all world and look what he's done since. He also had everyone talking multiple # 1 picks for Garrapalo in possible trade scenarios and he only played 4 games. Hell, if he had Brock now he'd prob make him look good. Forget TB, worry about real reason Pats are favs to go back again. It's the system and the man behind it. MO of course.

 

[58crash]

I think more people should be worried about Belichek and company than TB. He made Cassel look all world and look what he's done since. He also had everyone talking multiple # 1 picks for Garrapalo in possible trade scenarios and he only played 4 games. Hell, if he had Brock now he'd prob make him look good. Forget TB, worry about real reason Pats are favs to go back again. It's the system and the man behind it. MO of course.

Their system is to cheat like AMF'er ! last year was the first time they did not yet get busted for cheating and win a SB .

 

[58crash]

At some point they will get busted again . they cannot help themselves

 

[58crash]

I will say this if you don't try and get some kind advantage you will not be a Coach long in the NFL .

 

[randymon]

What's always bothered me about " deflate gate " was all the attention on TB and " that game ". We all saw afterwards it made no difference in TB's performance. What seems to elude so many not only here but in the media,etc is how long did NE get away with this before. So much attention on how the Qb likes his "ball " that they've neglected what a " deflated " ball helps wrs,rbs in inclement weather? How long did NE take advantage of this before they got busted ?. Not only was less psi favorable to Tom, but it also was beneficial to the receivers and rbs maintaining pocession in wet/cold conditions.. Ask any wr/ rb and they'll tell you a " softer " ball is easier to catch/ hold on to. The Brady deflate thing is nothing compared to how long did NE get away with it beforehand. That said, how many teams that had their starting Qbs who preferred slightly deflated ball, also take advantage in those type of weather games?. I imagine quite a few.

 

[iknowftbll]

I think more people should be worried about Belichek and company than TB. He made Cassel look all world and look what he's done since. He also had everyone talking multiple # 1 picks for Garrapalo in possible trade scenarios and he only played 4 games. Hell, if he had Brock now he'd prob make him look good. Forget TB, worry about real reason Pats are favs to go back again. It's the system and the man behind it. MO of course.

I'd buy this. Brady is definitely a factor but you cannot deny the power of that system. Brady just makes it work on a higher level than it otherwise would. Brady missed a whole year and that team went 11-5 without him. 11-5 is good enough for the playoffs for all but 2 teams that finished with that record (1985 Broncos and 2008 Patriots). And as noted they went 3-1 without Brady last year. NOBODY was surprised by that.

Once Brady retires the Patriots are still going to be a force, especially if the other AFC East teams still don't have their [stuff] together. Years of ineptitude from the other AFC East teams with the occasional decent season or two sprinkled in give us reason to believe none of these teams are close to overtaking the Pats, even post-Brady.

Now I do believe the Pats won't be as pronounced a post-season contender as they are now. Right now you can pencil them in for a first round bye at least one playoff win. I think post-Brady you'll see the Pats in the #3-4 seed more often, but not in the #5-6 seed because that will take one of the other AFC East teams stepping up. And of course, they may still be good enough for that first round bye from time to time, but I doubt they'll enjoy the level of dominance they have right now.

 

[CEH]

Brady makes the correct decisions before the play even starts. Hard to replace that type of mental acuity.
NE without Brady would bring the other teams back into the hunt and NE is not very good on the road in the playoffs with Brady. I can see then being a 10-6 team without Brady and one and done in the playoffs outside Foxboro.

 

[Southieinnc]

I am going to politely but without reservation call bullshit on this.



Part of the narrative going into that AFCCG was the "Pats are healthy" and there was no way the Broncos could beat a healthy Pats team. There was a lot made of some of the Pats' missing pieces from the regular season game, but the same people making those arguments forgot to mention the Broncos had a QB making his second NFL start in that one.

Either way you slice it, trying to change the narrative now is pointless. The Broncos just flat out were the better team in 2 tries in 2015.

Lastly I disagree that battle tested = beat up. That 2015 team was battle tested. If the Broncos schedule in 2017 is as tough as it looks from here and they still reach 11-5 or even 10-6 they will be a pretty battle tested team once again.

I have no problem with your prediction. I have a different view of things. What else do we have to talk about until the hitting starts?

 

[iknowftbll]

I have no problem with your prediction. I have a different view of things. What else do we have to talk about until the hitting starts?

Believe me when I say, we like you guys dropping in and talking football with us. I certainly don't expect you to agree with my predictions, and in fact, half the fun in this is when people disagree and can have a good discussion about it.

But equating that 2015 "beat up" Patriots team to being battle tested is a narrative I simply won't let go unchallenged. Go back to the week leading into that game. The narrative was the Patriots were "HEALTHY this time" and the Broncos wouldn't be able to hang with them. We saw outlandish score predictions: the Patriots hanging 40+ on one of the best defenses in the history of the league, etc. The narrative was the Patriots would come in and run the Broncos right out of the stadium. The narrative was nothing about the Patriots being "beat up" or "battle tested" and since it wasn't then I'm calling bullshit on anyone who tries to retroactively make it that way.

 

[Southieinnc]

Believe me when I say, we like you guys dropping in and talking football with us. I certainly don't expect you to agree with my predictions, and in fact, half the fun in this is when people disagree and can have a good discussion about it.

But equating that 2015 "beat up" Patriots team to being battle tested is a narrative I simply won't let go unchallenged. Go back to the week leading into that game. The narrative was the Patriots were "healthy

Below is the update IR list. Four starters in 8 weeks. Vollmer could be out for a couple of weeks if he can't pass the concussion protocol. Jamie Collins has a mysterious illness that no one can seem to find out about. Tre Jackson has a toe/foot problem. Need to go out and find a couple of solid linemen for backups to the backups.

Reserve/Physically Unable to Perform

Fletcher, Dane LB
Jones, Chris DT

Reserve/Injured

Brown, Tarell CB
Derby, AJ TE
Develin, James FB
Gaffney, Tyler RB
Gibson, Brandon WR
Lewis, Dion RB
Roberts, Darryl DB
Solder, Nate T
Tyms, Brian WR
Wendell, Ryan OL

With the way the defense has been playing lately I think they still have plenty. The Broncos have no idea what they have in their QB. Cincy seems to be sliding back. Pittsburgh while good still have some huge holes. Colts are well the Colts. So while NE is falling back a bit with the injuries not sure anybody else has stepped up and showed they are the team to beat.

Name a team that at the mid point of the season that lost 4...that's FOUR of their top offensive weapons and then went on to win the Superbowl. Each year, the SB Champion has been among the most fortunate injury-wise and I see no reason why this year would be any different. Call it sad if you wish but I call it being realistic.

They still have a shot at making the SB, but if we were to play Carolina this week, we'd get blown out.

BB staying busy. I like Iosefa as well. It will be interesting to watch BB over the next few weeks and what he does with the roster/injuries.

this time" and the Broncos wouldn't be able to hang with them. We saw outlandish score predictions: the Patriots hanging 40+ on one of the best defenses in the history of the league, etc. The narrative was the Patriots would come in and run the Broncos right out of the stadium. The narrative was nothing about the Patriots being "beat up" or "battle tested" and since it wasn't then I'm calling bullshit on anyone who tries to retroactively make it that way.

 

[iknowftbll]

^ Southie that's some good research to counter what I've said, but if doesn't dismiss the narrative of the sports media at the time of the game. Still, good research browsing old posts and quoting them. I have never been able to do that sort of thing.