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The John Stockton Thread

MHSL82

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Our highest ranking player is Al in the mid 40s. Paul is mid 50s. When is the last time you saw a title without 2 elite players? Maybe the Pistons against Karl Malones Lakers. Deron hasn't been mentioned yet, so assuming he is top 15. I'm willing to bet that had Deron stayed in UT, they would have under ranked him rather than vaulting him top 10. Regardless, the fact is we lost an elite player. We know what we have in Al and Paul. Time to see if Favors can pan out to make the whole trade worth while.

We lost Deron for last year, no doubt. But I don't think for a second that he would have re-upped here. I don't think Sloan was the only reason he would have made troubles for us. We'd have had him for our elite player, but no one else. We'd have some cap collateral damage. He would make who we do have better, so I do think we'd have someone in the 20-30's.

To what extent does Jefferson and Millsap do the same thing? Is our PG by committee holding us back that much(this goes to the DW question you had)? My answer is yes, anyone who grew up with John Stockton knows how a PG can make or break your team. Some other positions like SG can take up the slack, but do we have that?

Our team is highly complimentary. Our success is due to us working together well and having a good system. How players fit in that system matters, because I see the Jazz trying to force great players into the system, let them earn minutes. This has been great so far, because players buy into a great system, but say we put another elite in, what happens? Carmelo Anthony does what in the wrong situation? Shoots and scores a lot in losses.
 

nuraman00

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We lost Deron for last year, no doubt. But I don't think for a second that he would have re-upped here. I don't think Sloan was the only reason he would have made troubles for us. We'd have had him for our elite player, but no one else. We'd have some cap collateral damage. He would make who we do have better, so I do think we'd have someone in the 20-30's.

To what extent does Jefferson and Millsap do the same thing? Is our PG by committee holding us back that much(this goes to the DW question you had)? My answer is yes, anyone who grew up with John Stockton knows how a PG can make or break your team. Some other positions like SG can take up the slack, but do we have that?

Our team is highly complimentary. Our success is due to us working together well and having a good system. How players fit in that system matters, because I see the Jazz trying to force great players into the system, let them earn minutes. This has been great so far, because players buy into a great system, but say we put another elite in, what happens? Carmelo Anthony does what in the wrong situation? Shoots and scores a lot in losses.

It depends on what other moves management would have made to put desirable pieces.

Brooklyn resigning Gerald Wallace and trading for Joe Johnson was enough to convince Deron. Those are two All-Stars (even if Wallace doesn't get voted as one most of the time).

If the Jazz would have gotten a 3rd AS type player, then he probably would have resigned. If it would have just been Jefferson and/or Millsap, then probably not. He's already been a part of teams that had 2 good players instead of 3, from 2008-2009 until 2010-2011, on the Jazz.
 

MHSL82

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I think Deron is Top Twenty, maybe top ten, but based on last year's production (which isn't everything), I would keep him out of the Top Ten. He's good enough not to fall out of the top 20, perhaps top 15. I am biased though because I liked Stockton's assists more than Williams points.

Going to a bad team will do this to you because you are forced to shoot, even when it's ill-advised, but he has to get better for them to have a chance. I bet he will. I guess the only significant decrease was in FG% and assists last year. He's never been that great in FG%.

He is shooting 39.8% from the field, averages 19.9 points (less than in Utah), 9.5 assists (8.7 last year), and the same in steals as he was here. I expect 45%, 21.0, and 9.5 for 2012-13. The better shooting percentage will increase the points on fewer shots so that he can get more assists. The team around him is better.
 

nuraman00

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I think Deron is Top Twenty, maybe top ten, but based on last year's production (which isn't everything), I would keep him out of the Top Ten. He's good enough not to fall out of the top 20, perhaps top 15. I am biased though because I liked Stockton's assists more than Williams points.

Going to a bad team will do this to you because you are forced to shoot, even when it's ill-advised, but he has to get better for them to have a chance. I bet he will. I guess the only significant decrease was in FG% and assists last year. He's never been that great in FG%.

He is shooting 39.8% from the field, averages 19.9 points (less than in Utah), 9.5 assists (8.7 last year), and the same in steals as he was here. I expect 45%, 21.0, and 9.5 for 2012-13. The better shooting percentage will increase the points on fewer shots so that he can get more assists. The team around him is better.


Deron is good if you look at a certain limited set of skills - assists and ability to shoot from anywhere on the floor.

If you look at defense, he's no Stockton, Payton, Kidd, guys that made the All-Defensive team every year. Stockton was a great defender. He was dirty too, but I liked that. Deron is a below average defender.

Deron's peers such as Westbrook, Rondo are good defenders. Teague helped Atlanta's defense a lot last season, compared to previous seasons when they had Bibby.

Billups was a good defender, making the All Defensive team a few years. I still liked his defense last year. Billups was good at chasing guys over screens, he didn't have to go under.

Hinrich was a good defender for several years. Baron Davis, when he played for the Hornets, was a pretty good defender.

Chris Paul is better at defense than I thought. I used to think he got a lot of steals but wasn't as good as his reputation suggested. But watching him more often during a season than in previous seasons, I came to appreciate his tenacity and commitment to defense.

Ty Lawson at least gets steals. I'm not sure what to think of his defense yet. But he's also still fairly young.

Rubio was good at defense.

Felton, while he had a poor offensive season, he was an ok defender last year. That got overlooked.

Even Steve Nash, I've seen several stats that show he holds his opponents to an opponents PER below their season average. In his case, I think his constant movement tires his opponent out. So, his offense is his defense. But that's still something.

Deron's style to lull his opponents to sleep doesn't have the same impact.

Rebounding
- Deron is a below average rebounding PG. Definitely no Kidd or Rondo or Westbrook. Lowry, Andre Miller, Chris Paul, and Baron Davis were other standout rebounders.

Williams ranked 23rd out of 45:

Player Season Finder | Basketball-Reference.com

Turnovers - He doesn't protect the ball well. He ranked 47 out of 54, with a turnover % of 16.9:

Player Season Finder | Basketball-Reference.com

Payton, Billups, Chris Paul, and Bibby are some of the best I've seen at not turning it over. Yes, maybe with Bibby it's because he's more likely to shoot, but in this case, that's the point. He gets his team a field goal attempt, rather than turn it over. Your team can't shoot if someone turns it over a lot.

Billups had 9 turnovers total during the 7 games in the 2005 NBA Finals. That's one of the most remarkable stats I've seen in terms of protecting the ball. I can also search through plenty of his playoffs games, and about 1/2 of them are with 1 turnover or less while having played 25 minutes.


Getting to the foul line: Deron ranks well here per 36 minutes, ranking 11/54:

Player Season Finder | Basketball-Reference.com

But I don't remember these games where he gets a lot of attempts, say 10. He's not like Tony Parker, for example. I mention free throw attempts as a category, not for the scoring, but for the ability to put the defense on their heels, and make them have to play looser defense. If they're in foul trouble, then they'll be even easier to attack.

And getting in the bonus early helps everyone on your team, as they can get some easier points at the foul line.

Deron actually ranked well here too, ranking 7th with 59 games of 10+ free throws since 2006-2007. I know this query included some SGs, I couldn't avoid it.

Player Game Finder | Basketball-Reference.com


I guess I'm not noticing him getting to the foul line as often as he does.


But the other areas that I mentioned, defense rebounding, and turnovers, are areas where he ranks poorly in. And he doesn't shoot as well as I'd like.

He's not as well rounded of a player, just very good in assists and being able to shoot from anywhere on the floor.

Stockton, Nash, Price, Rondo are about as good or better at both assists and shooting FG%. (In Rondo's case, it's his shot selection rather than actual shooting ability).

Tony Parker isn't as good at assists, but when I watch him play, he runs the system that Pop wants. They move the ball a lot, and he's always had to share ball handling duties with Ginobili, Barry, or George Hill. Plus, Tony Parker is usually top 5 in points in the paint. No, not just against guards, but against the entire league. When you're getting that many points close to the rim, and you can make them, then you have to shoot. It would be worse for the team for Parker to get that close to the rim, and pass to someone for a longer distance shot. The point of an offense is to get a close shot, and Parker shoots a little bit more because he can get good close shots and make them at a high percentage.

The Spurs, as well as the Jazz, have usually had good shooting and good passing team level stats, so Parker shouldn't be penalized for not having some of the individual assist stats, if his team's offense is always near the top in terms of efficiency.

Plus I think Parker has just had more memorable games in the playoffs.

His style might not be Nash or Stockton, but he does what he does best as well as what Pop wants him to do. It's been years since Pop has had to yell at him for not running the offense right.
 

MHSL82

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Watching the OKC game and I'm really thinking I'm going to like Marvin Williams. He ads a new dimension and is a huge upgrade over CJ or Howard. Mo gets them moving up the court like a bolt of lightning.

I didn't see the OKC game, but looking at the box score, there were a lot of o-fer's. The one's where I think will and have to come up are Favors and Foye. Kanter has played well; I hope it translates to the regular season. Since I didn't see the game, I'll defer to you on him running the offense, but I'm hoping he starts to get 6-8 assists per game. I went years expecting Stockton to get 10-15 assists and Williams to get 8-12 assists per game. Right now, with our team, I'm hoping for few <5 assist games by our point guards.
 

nuraman00

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I didn't see the OKC game, but looking at the box score, there were a lot of o-fer's. The one's where I think will and have to come up are Favors and Foye. Kanter has played well; I hope it translates to the regular season. Since I didn't see the game, I'll defer to you on him running the offense, but I'm hoping he starts to get 6-8 assists per game. I went years expecting Stockton to get 10-15 assists and Williams to get 8-12 assists per game. Right now, with our team, I'm hoping for few <5 assist games by our point guards.

There is a huge difference between averaging 6 assists a game, and 8.

Typically 5-7 PGs can average 8+ assists a game, but 18-22 can do 6+ assists a game.

I think you should look at team related offensive stats like team AST % and ORTG, rather than what an individual is doing.

The Jazz big men can usually pass, so there will be some source of assists by them.
 

MHSL82

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There is a huge difference between averaging 6 assists a game, and 8.

Typically 5-7 PGs can average 8+ assists a game, but 18-22 can do 6+ assists a game.

I think you should look at team related offensive stats like team AST % and ORTG, rather than what an individual is doing.

The Jazz big men can usually pass, so there will be some source of assists by them.

True, but I'm talking about what I want to have, not what I expect to have. It's just, I can't get myself to say I'd be happy with "4-6 assists per game." It makes me cry in my sleep. ;)

OT: In football, I'm ok with few passing yards if we win the game. In basketball, I don't need a 20+ scorer, just a 6+ assist man. To me, 6+ speaks to someone who is selfless, intelligent, a real general on the court. A guy who plays point guard has to have assists to remark on, or else, to me, we have 2 SGs and a SF on the court. But that might just be me, being raised with Stockton. Funny that I don't mind not having a Malone as long as we win (even though he was a close second for me). When Boozer was here, some expected/hoped for a poor man's Malone, I didn't care, I just wanted a PG (we had) and wins.
 

nuraman00

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True, but I'm talking about what I want to have, not what I expect to have. It's just, I can't get myself to say I'd be happy with "4-6 assists per game." It makes me cry in my sleep. ;)

OT: In football, I'm ok with few passing yards if we win the game. In basketball, I don't need a 20+ scorer, just a 6+ assist man. To me, 6+ speaks to someone who is selfless, intelligent, a real general on the court. A guy who plays point guard has to have assists to remark on, or else, to me, we have 2 SGs and a SF on the court. But that might just be me, being raised with Stockton. Funny that I don't mind not having a Malone as long as we win (even though he was a close second for me). When Boozer was here, some expected/hoped for a poor man's Malone, I didn't care, I just wanted a PG (we had) and wins.

Mo Williams should just get 6 assists per game.

I'm just saying that you should look at team AST %. The Jazz have always gotten a lot of assists per offensive possession on a team level. You don't need John Stockton or Deron Williams. Look at the 3 years where Carlos Arroyo and Keith McLeod were the main PGs, from 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006. Individually, no one averaged more than 5.1 assists per game.

But on a team level, the Jazz were 19th, 7th, and 7th in assist %. Which shows they still moved the ball well. It's the system that got the assists, not the PG. Kirilenko himself averaged 4.3 assists in 2005-2006. Hence my observation that Jazz bigs like Kirilenko, Boozer, and even Jefferson last year do more passing and generate more assists. They pass to cutting guards for layups a lot. The Sloan Flex offense generated a lot of dunks and layups, and not necessarily from bigs, but from guards too.

At a certain point, it doesn't matter who's scoring or who's getting the assists if you're still getting the ball movement, as shown with a team level stat like assist %, and you're still getting a lot of close shots at the rim.

I would pull up stats from Hoop Data about how the Jazz take more shots at the rim, however:

1) They only go back to 2006-2007, which is one year too late for the time period I'm examining without an elite PG.

2) FGA attempts per game at the rim is nice, but I would have preferred it normalized as a percentage of total FGAs by the team, so that it was pace independent.

To use your football analogy, I'm saying there's still a lot of passing yards -- it's just that it's coming from other positions like RBs, Tight Ends, and Safetys. Or back to basketball positions, Centers, PFs, and SFs. It's not all about the PG, but rather the floor spacing and the system and guys moving to the spots that the plays call for for those dunks and layups.

Those dunks and layups do come at a price, as the Jazz are always among the fewest in 3-point attempts. But that's been the principle, to go for the closer shot rather than the long shot. Plus I can't recall too many teams that had great 3-point shooters anyways.

I'm thinking that if Keith McLeod, Milt Palacio, and Carlos Arroyo had the scoring talent surrounding this team, the Jazz could have moved even higher than 7th in assist %. All without increasing their individual assists per game much, but the assists coming from other positions.

Assists also depend on one other dependency: Players who catch and shoot or catch and drive.

If your team has a lot of players who isolate and get fouled, then your assists will go down, and instead those players will attempt a lot of FTs. If you had Blake Griffin and Kevin Durant on your team, you may lose a few assists, but those players would combine for 20 free throw attempts per game by themselves and get the other team in the bonus. However, the Jazz seem to be high in free throw rate themselves, as they were 2nd in 2006-2007. My guess is that those dunks and layups attempts that are generated also result in a lot of and-ones or fouls near the rim.


In the Flex Offense I trust. (Which I don't think Corbin runs as much, his offense is a little different).
 

nuraman00

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The Jazz have been bad in my one bugaboo: Turnovers.

If I look at turnover rate:

2002 - 2003: 27th
2003 - 2004: 27th
2004 - 2005: 28th
2005 - 2006: 28th
2006 - 2007: 17th
2007 - 2008: 20th
2008 - 2009: 22nd
2009 - 2010: 26th:
2010 - 2011: 20th
2011 - 2012: 5th

The Spurs have always been better at this. They have the same great assist % as the Jazz, but with much better protection of the ball. Some years they've even been top 5 in lowest turnover rates.

Ok, I'm changing my slogan. It's not "In the Flex Offense I trust".

It's "In the Spurs offense I trust!"

I still think about those turnovers Pippen caused on Stockton.
 

nuraman00

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Speaking of big men who pass (as an observation of the many Jazz big men who pass), clintonite33 and I got into a huge discussion about our favorite passing big men.

I told him one of my favorite plays was the Malone to Stockton -- Big passing to the guard. He agreed.

Then we talked about what Boozer was doing.

He then did some research, and wrote this article on passing bigs (long):

The Art of the Interior Post Pass Gone From the NBA? | Shoot Hoops
 

nuraman00

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So, MHSL82, maybe in my sick mind I want Malone to average more assists per game than Stockton.

Haha.
 

nuraman00

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So the OP doesn't even post in the game thread, and it's 2 days later.

Hmmph!

He was probably too busy wearing his ALEX SMITH Halloween costume, complete with game-used underwear and socks. And JOHN STOCKTON shorts.
 

MHSL82

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So the OP doesn't even post in the game thread, and it's 2 days later.

Hmmph!

He was probably too busy wearing his ALEX SMITH Halloween costume, complete with game-used underwear and socks. And JOHN STOCKTON shorts.

My fault for the two days thing, I went to see my grandfather at the time of the game. Then, I got busy twiddling my thumbs and brushing my teeth. My underwear was my own, but the socks were USC socks, my hat was Utah Utes, my jersey was Alex Smith, and my shorts was John Stockton's long shorts (modern). Just kidding, I had a tuxedo t-shirt, my wife was a pumpkin, and my daughter was an elephant.
 

nuraman00

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My fault for the two days thing, I went to see my grandfather at the time of the game. Then, I got busy twiddling my thumbs and brushing my teeth. My underwear was my own, but the socks were USC socks, my hat was Utah Utes, my jersey was Alex Smith, and my shorts was John Stockton's long shorts (modern). Just kidding, I had a tuxedo t-shirt, my wife was a pumpkin, and my daughter was an elephant.

Congrats, sounds like a fun Halloween. Did you go trick-or-treating around town, or to a Halloween Party?

I guess this can be considered a costume, right?

black-tee.jpg


I'm relieved that you practice good dental hygiene.
 

nuraman00

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Maybe I'll email you some if I remember. Saw warmups, was surprised how poorly everyone shot in warmups pre-game. I don't know if they are just working on their weaknesses, but with no defense, they should be shooting at least their in-game percentages. I looked at one or two at a time for 30-50 shots, so there's a chance I caught them all at the wrong time. I could have also miscounted when I was tracking two players. More later, as it is late here.

Here's the first few sentences from a recap of a Jazz game I went to in 2010-2011. I noticed then too how poorly the Jazz shot in warmups:

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Pregame:

45-50 minutes before tipoff, a bald Jazz player was warming up. It took me an hour to figure out it was Francisco Elson.

Omri Casspi was the other player warming up. He took 6-7 halfcourt shots.


There was one fan who had a Stockton jersey, with the purple mountains.

15 minutes until tipoff:

* The Jazz missed approximately 25 out of 30 shots on jumpers and layups. I couldn't believe it.
 

nuraman00

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Here's the first few sentences from a recap of a Jazz game I went to in 2010-2011. I noticed then too how poorly the Jazz shot in warmups:

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Pregame:

45-50 minutes before tipoff, a bald Jazz player was warming up. It took me an hour to figure out it was Francisco Elson.

Omri Casspi was the other player warming up. He took 6-7 halfcourt shots.


There was one fan who had a Stockton jersey, with the purple mountains.

15 minutes until tipoff:

* The Jazz missed approximately 25 out of 30 shots on jumpers and layups. I couldn't believe it.

So did you think my observation at the game of all the missed shots during warmups was like yours for the game you went to?

Ironically, the Jazz shot well in the game I went to. Screw warmups, haha.
 

MHSL82

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This is after the fact, but wanted to make a thread for it.

Yes!!! I hate losing by a bucket or two - I'd rather lose by 8 than 1 and winning by any margin obviously beats all.

On ESPN's broadcast, Chris Mullin was saying that Duncan should/could be MVP this year because he's bounced back from a few years ago. I was confused because he's averaging 18 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.6 blocks. I get that he has intangibles and all, but that's not MVP!

The rest I'm going to say is biased, obviously, but I'll say it regardless. It always bugged me that Duncan has never had great stats and yet was talked about being the best PF ever - fine, but now people ignore Malone in that sentence. People are removing the "possibly" or the "one of" from their statements. I'm fine with him being in the conversation, but I think people forget about Malone's reliability throughout his career in doing what PFs are supposed to do. Malone would never dip to 13.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.9 blocks in Utah. He did better, older with Kobe Bryant and Shaq getting most of the touches.

Stats are not everything, obviously. Winning matters and his team with the Coach of the Decade won a lot (not that Sloan was a slouch or anything). But I feel, the Spurs peaked at the right time, when Michael Jordan wasn't there. True, the Jazz were missing in the Rockets years and only got to the Finals twice, but I think the Spurs would have a few losses if it happened a few years earlier, when the Jazz peaked. Or the Jazz would have a few titles if they peaked after Jordan. If Duncan had been drafted in say 1988, we'd be looking at him differently. Damn Jordan!

I think Duncan is a great guy, better guy by far than Malone was. He's a family man, modest, quiet, respectful, shy, and he wins. I think that's also contributed to this belief that he's a great leader, which I sure he is on the court. Malone too lead by example and teammates worked hard because they saw that he gave his effort and performed night in and night out.

I'm fine with people thinking Duncan was better, despite his team helping more than Malone's did (Jazz did have a superstar in Stockton and after Robinson, there was no big guy in SA - but overall, I feel the Spurs teammates helped more, complimentary). I just get tired that no one mentions Malone anymore when talking about Duncan as the best PF ever. News to you: it's not like how Jordan is consensus #1.

While I am biased for Stockton, I totally understand and respect the consensus that Magic was better - due to his scoring abilities and titles - against big stars (and with them, too). So I'm not so biased that I can't see. I just want Stockton and Malone to perpetually be given their due.
 

nuraman00

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Or the Jazz would have a few titles if they peaked after Jordan. If Duncan had been drafted in say 1988, we'd be looking at him differently. Damn Jordan!

It wasn't all Jordan.

Pippen shut down Stockton in the 4th quarter, and forced turnovers.
 

nuraman00

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While I am biased for Stockton, I totally understand and respect the consensus that Magic was better - due to his scoring abilities and titles - against big stars (and with them, too). So I'm not so biased that I can't see. I just want Stockton and Malone to perpetually be given their due.

Bird > Magic. Better, tougher defender.

Robertson > Magic.

Kidd > Magic.

Payton = Magic.

Kidd for his two-way play, and rebounding, and defense.

Payton for his low-turnover game, and defense.

With respect to great PGs, Payton has one of the lowest turnover rates among them.
 

MHSL82

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Bird > Magic. Better, tougher defender.

Robertson > Magic.

Kidd > Magic.

Payton = Magic.

Kidd for his two-way play, and rebounding, and defense.

Payton for his low-turnover game, and defense.

With respect to great PGs, Payton has one of the lowest turnover rates among them.

I see you left out Stockton. So DON'T CORRECT ME (!!!), but:

Stockton > Robertson/Kidd > Magic/Payton

Just kidding. I like Stockton best and would pick him because of my loyalties, but I don't argue about it with anyone. Because I don't like people tearing down Stockton to make someone else better, whatever they think, I just say, "ok". (And no, this is not how I would be in a courtroom. "Not guilty." "Ok, we're dropping the charges.")
 
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