The Disappearance Of Vernon Davis

[TobyTyler]

It's pretty tough to criticize him for failing to learn seven starts in. It's pretty typical for coaches to try to divide the field for a young QB. And it's not like Davis was having a career year before Smith got hurt. He started hot, at least in terms of TDs, but cooled significantly after the first three games. He's cooled even more since Kap got in there, no doubt, but I think it's at least as much on the coaching staff to work this out. He's too valuable a weapon not to use in the playoffs.

That's a fair argument but I was not criticizing him; just looking for a plausible explanation for the disappearance of their most dangerous receiver since Kaepernick took over.

 

[Bemular]

It's pretty tough to criticize him for failing to learn seven starts in. It's pretty typical for coaches to try to divide the field for a young QB. And it's not like Davis was having a career year before Smith got hurt. He started hot, at least in terms of TDs, but cooled significantly after the first three games. He's cooled even more since Kap got in there, no doubt, but I think it's at least as much on the coaching staff to work this out. He's too valuable a weapon not to use in the playoffs.

He had 8 targets and 6 catches for 83 yards and a TD vs. Chicago - it was after the Chicago game that his targets & production dropped off.

 

[TobyTyler]

He had 8 targets and 6 catches for 83 yards and a TD vs. Chicago - it was after the Chicago game that his targets & production dropped off.

That makes his disappearnce all the more inexplicable.

 

[Bemular]

That makes his disappearnce all the more inexplicable.

After the Chicago game he saw a total of 12 targets over the next 6 games and had 7 receptions for 61 yards & 0 TD's

 

[TobyTyler]

After the Chicago game he saw a total of 12 targets over the next 6 games and had 7 receptions for 61 yards & 0 TD's

That is what concerns me. Why? He was dominant against Chicago.

 

[Bemular]

That is what concerns me. Why? He was dominant against Chicago.

I haven't charted Vernon as of yet but perhaps I'll put him near the top and see what jumps off the film.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

That's a fair argument but I was not criticizing him; just looking for a plausible explanation for the disappearance of their most dangerous receiver since Kaepernick took over.

Again, Davis had disappeared largely before Alex got hurt. I had forgotten that Davis had a good game against Chicago, but now that I think about it, I actually thought we were seeing a resurgence of Davis with Kap at QB after that game - I was paying particular attention since I had picked him up in fantasy two weeks earlier in what I thought was a brilliant buy low move; got him for Olsen straight up. Obviously Davis didn't take off, but it's not like Davis' drop coincided entirely with Kap stepping in.

 

[TobyTyler]

I haven't charted Vernon as of yet but perhaps I'll put him near the top and see what jumps off the film.

I'd be interested to hear that analysis. It definitely has to be something that the 49ers staff is concerned with.

 

[TobyTyler]

Again, Davis had disappeared largely before Alex got hurt. I had forgotten that Davis had a good game against Chicago, but now that I think about it, I actually thought we were seeing a resurgence of Davis with Kap at QB after that game - I was paying particular attention since I had picked him up in fantasy two weeks earlier in what I thought was a brilliant buy low move; got him for Olsen straight up. Obviously Davis didn't take off, but it's not like Davis' drop coincided entirely with Kap stepping in.

Agreed. I had him in Fantasy s well and he was a general disappointment.

 

[Jikkle]

Like CC said we were asking "Where's VD?" even before CK got in there.

I believe it falls a lot on Roman because it's his job to come up with ways to get VD open and to make plays.

Also I think defenses still put a lot of focus on making sure they stop VD which is one reason you've seen Crabtree come up huge lately.

I think the more Crabtree establishes himself as a threat the more it's going to focus defenses to play attention to him thus forcing them off VD a bit.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Agreed. I had him in Fantasy s well and he was a general disappointment.

The saving grace for me at TE was using Palmer during Brady's bye week and then trading him straight up for Hernandez, who was still injured at the time. That move almost earned me second place in the league, but Bradshaw's injury against the Saints doomed me in the first round of the playoffs. Ugh.

 

[I_am_1z]

I believe the reason for the disappearance of Vernon Davis is that Kaepernick cannot use the middle of the field effectively yet. As I recall, his early passes to Davis were corner and crossing routes to the outside as were all his passes to Crabtree and Walker. He cannot see the middle of the field yet where Davis does all his work.

No. It's more likely that Kaepernick hasn't developed any trust in VD

 

[clyde_carbon]

In the 3 games before Kaep took over against St. Louis Vernon Davis combined for 5 catches, 71 yards, and 0 TDs. His struggles extend to before Kaepernick became the starter, so I'm not sure it IS Kaep.

 

[tomikcon1971]

I keep waiting for a Vernon picture on a milk carton to pop up.

 

[Bemular]

I'd be interested to hear that analysis. It definitely has to be something that the 49ers staff is concerned with.

44% (11/25) of Vernon's targets by Kap were between the numbers. (3 between the Hash's)
47.2% (17/36) of Vernon's targets by Smith were between the numbers. (5 between the Hash's)

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

VD has the handcuffs back on I guess.

He's not the most reliable target, maybe it takes a lot of work with him to get on the same page, know where he's gonna be and where the ball needs to be, etc. I would imagine he and Smith spent a *tremendous* amount of time both in practice and post-practice over the years ironing things out.

 

[MHSL82]

I'm certain that's not it. Its Kaepernick being uncomfortable with the middle of the field. He never throws there.

What about that laser Kap thew to Crabtree in the NE game? Can't get any more in the middle than that?

That is the one exception I was thinking about. That was a great throw. But he still missed the fact that there was double coverage on that throw.

That's like those who say Alex can't throw sideline throws. Then, someone will point out the few that he does and say, see? The fact is most if not all QBs, can make the throws, just not consistently or all of them equally per se.

Having said that, I don't think Kaep has a problem with middle of the field throws - I think if anything, the OC is avoiding them while he learns. But even that, I don't believe.

I'm making a list. If we add up all the theories out there, all as crazy as the next, we should put Smith in for the middle of the field passes, Kaep in for the sideline throws, Smith in for the floater fades (all in the middle of the field to Davis) and Kaep for the darts (all to Crabtree outside of the hashmarks or numbers), just like we should put Smith in for short passes (to Crabtree so he can get crazy YAC) and Kaep for deep passes (all of which on the sideline). Put Smith in for the red zone and Kaep in for third down. (Referring to Sando's article comparing the QBs) We should also have Moss in for every deep play to bat down would-be Kaep interceptions. And we should have Gore in the backfield for all plays to score on Kaep's fumbles. We'd be unstoppable!

Just in case the didn't tell you, I am only kidding.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I keep hoping we're just hiding Vernon in the hopes teams will forget about him and he'll tear it up in the playoffs. As it stands right now, our most dynamic threat on either side of the ball in last year's playoffs is a major question mark this year. The good news is that, with other guys stepping up, if they do bounce back we should be that much better.

 

[clyde_carbon]

VD has the handcuffs back on I guess.

He's not the most reliable target, maybe it takes a lot of work with him to get on the same page, know where he's gonna be and where the ball needs to be, etc. I would imagine he and Smith spent a *tremendous* amount of time both in practice and post-practice over the years ironing things out.

That is probably it more than anything else. Less painting, more catching Vernon.

 

[ChrisPozz]

9 out of 10 of Kaepernick's throws are to the outside. I think he depends on his arm too much instead of learning to read the middle of the field for where the Safeties will be. Thus the resurgence of Crabtree.

Kaepernick's passes by direction this season NOT counting the Cardinals game yesterday (those numbers have not been posted yet):

Left - 37/60 (61.6%) for 431 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT

Middle - 45/65 (69.2%) for 547 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs

Right - 38/55 (69.1%) for 561 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs

Across the middle he has the most completions, attempts, best completion percentage, but fewest TDs and most INTs. One's eye test could tell a better story about the kind of passer he is to all levels, but those are just the numbers for everybody.

Here are Kaepernick's numbers by direction among passes 10-20+ yards:

Left - 10/23 (43.5%) for 217 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT

Middle - 13/23 (56.5%) for 265 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs

Right - 15/22 (68.2%) for 352 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs

I was intrigued by the distribution across the board among those passes. That's interesting.