- Thread starter
- #1
iowajerms
Well-Known Member
- 20,650
- 2,780
- 293
- Joined
- Sep 1, 2011
- Location
- Iowa, US
- Hoopla Cash
- $ 29,091.39
- Fav. Team #1
- Fav. Team #2
- Fav. Team #3
Steele: Projecting the ACC standings
Can anyone stop Clemson? The Tigers are playoff-tested and experienced and should be the best of the Atlantic. But Miami in the Coastal Division could also contend for the national title.
Here are Phil Steele's projections for the ACC's final standings:
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
Atlantic Division
1. Clemson Tigers
Despite being the defending national champ, Clemson was not even favored to win its own conference in 2017 and was No. 5 in the preseason poll. Clemson was No. 108 on my experience chart but finished No. 1 AP after the regular season before a loss to Alabama in the playoff. I thought all four defensive linemen would leave early for the NFL, but all four returned and Clemson has a veteran quarterback and moves to No. 23 on my experience chart and should make the playoff for a third straight year.
2. Florida State Seminoles
FSU was preseason AP No. 2 last season and stood toe-to-toe with Alabama but lost quarterback Deondre Francois for the year and barely got back to a bowl game, finishing 7-6. The Seminoles have two quarterbacks who have been full-time starters, and head coach Willie Taggart is happy with the talent he has inherited. Florida State does host Clemson and last season, even in a down year, had the ball in the fourth quarter down by three points on the Clemson side of the field. Florida State is also my No. 7 surprise team.
3. Boston College Eagles
Boston College was an average team in the first half of 2017 and opened just 2-4, but once running back AJ Dillon emerged, the Eagles went 5-1 down the stretch but lost their bowl game despite a 383-200 yardage edge. They did so despite losing their quarterback, top center, top linebacker, top defensive end and top cornerback (all three captains) for the year at some point during the season. Boston College is the most experienced team in the ACC (No. 11 in my experience chart), and despite facing Miami and Virginia Tech out of the Coastal, the Eagles could be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.
3. Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals lose superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson and now have the least experienced team in the ACC at just No. 115 in my experience chart. Louisville was 12-1 in 2013 but has hit only nine, eight, nine and eight wins under head coach Bobby Petrino the past four seasons. Louisville does draw a more favorable schedule than Boston College, as it avoids the top four teams from the Coastal. Louisville will be better than expected and top the 4-4 ACC record that it put up with Jackson in '17.
5. NC State Wolfpack
Unlike Clemson, which returns its star-studded defensive line, the Wolfpack lose a first-round draft pick, two third-round picks and a fourth-round pick from the defensive front and are just No. 91 on my experience chart with 11 returning starters. NC State does return quarterback Ryan Finley, and head coach Dave Doeren is doing a fine job of recruiting and developing players. My nine sets of power ratings have the Wolfpack anywhere from 6-6 to 9-3, and they will get to a fifth straight bowl game.
6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
I have talked to head coach Dave Clawson all 10 years he has been an FBS coach. I always enjoy our hourlong conversations ... until the end. He usually says, "Hey Phil, you going to pick us low again?" The last two years I have pegged Wake Forest sixth in the Atlantic (like most others), but Wake finished tied for fourth in '16 and tied for third last season. This year my power ratings have Wake sixth again. I actually still listed them in sixth and realize I will probably get ribbed by the coach AGAIN next spring.
7. Syracuse Orange
This pick is scary. Last year Syracuse was 4-3 at one point and not only beat No. 2 Clemson but also took LSU to the wire in Death Valley. The Orange almost upset No. 8 Miami on the road and had a 463-343 yardage edge at Florida State but lost by three. They have a lot of factors pointing up and at No. 39 are the third-most experienced team in the ACC. Unfortunately, most of my nine sets of power ratings when played into their schedule have the Orange here, and I think they will be the media's pick for the No. 7 spot as well.
Coastal Division
1. Miami Hurricanes
Miami had never played in the ACC title game and never had a better record than 5-3 in ACC play until last season. I picked the Hurricanes to win the Coastal, and Miami was my No. 2 surprise team in '17 and lived up to that billing. The Canes were 10-0 and if they beat Clemson in the ACC title game would have made the playoff. A banged-up offense had them drop their last three games. Miami was only plus-24.4 yards per game in ACC play (sixth best), and the Hurricanes do pull both Florida State and Boston College out of the Atlantic division. This is head coach Mark Richt's best team here, and Miami is a national title contender.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC was 13-4 in ACC play in 2015-16 but had a lot of factors pointing down last season. Not only was North Carolina No. 112 on my experience chart, but it had two net close losses and the 44 starts lost to injury were in the top 10 of the FBS. Anything that could go wrong did last year for the Tar Heels. Head coach Larry Fedora did not lose it overnight, and if last year's bad fortune turns into this year's good fortune, the Tar Heels could get back to being a contender in the Coastal.
2. Duke Blue Devils
Duke went from 10 to nine to eight to four wins from 2013 to 2016 but improved to seven wins in '17 and may start a trend of improving records. Duke has my No. 1 set of linebackers in the ACC and goes from No. 82 on my experience chart up to No. 40. The Blue Devils do draw Clemson out of the Atlantic but have an improved offense and defense and had minus-four net close losses last year, so they were four plays away from being 11-2. Duke has a shot at finishing in the top half of the Coastal for the first time since 2014.
4. Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech is 11-5 the last two years in ACC play, and this year's group is just as strong as the past two years. While Miami is 12-4, no other Coastal team has a winning record in that span. Virginia Tech returns quarterback Joshua Jackson as well as seven starters on offense, and Bud Foster guided the league's best defense in '17 as VT allowed just 15.1 points per game in ACC play. While the defense is younger, this team will once again be a contender in the Coastal.
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Paul Johnson has had three non-bowl seasons and followed each up with a winning season. Georgia Tech was plus-29.6 yards per game in ACC play and had minus-two net close losses last year, so it was two plays from being 7-5. Georgia Tech is an improved squad with a veteran quarterback and offensive line, but it draws arguably the toughest schedule of any Coastal team. Georgia Tech hosts both Clemson and Miami, so most of its winnable games are on the road. The Yellow Jackets also draw a road game at Louisville along with Clemson out of the Atlantic.
6. Pittsburgh Panthers
The Panthers had been to nine straight bowl games, but that streak was broken last season as they went 5-7. While just four starters are back on offense, each unit improved, and the Panthers will be stronger. Head coach Pat Narduzzi is known for defense and has the best defense in his four years. Even with 2017's losing record, Narduzzi is 14-10 in ACC play, and Pittsburgh avoids Clemson, Florida State, Louisville and Boston College out of the Atlantic and should get back to a bowl game in '18.
7. Virginia Cavaliers
Head coach Bronco Mendenhall did a good job getting the Cavaliers to a bowl game last year. He honored all of the previous staff's commits in his first year, so while this is Year 3, next season will be the one in which he gets the typical third-year improvement. Virginia will look different on offense, with more mobile quarterbacks and a much improved rush game, but will not be as proficient through the air. While eight starters return on defense, they lose their three All-ACC players in linebacker Micah Kiser, free safety Quin Blanding and defensive end Andrew Brown.
Can anyone stop Clemson? The Tigers are playoff-tested and experienced and should be the best of the Atlantic. But Miami in the Coastal Division could also contend for the national title.
Here are Phil Steele's projections for the ACC's final standings:
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
Atlantic Division
1. Clemson Tigers
Despite being the defending national champ, Clemson was not even favored to win its own conference in 2017 and was No. 5 in the preseason poll. Clemson was No. 108 on my experience chart but finished No. 1 AP after the regular season before a loss to Alabama in the playoff. I thought all four defensive linemen would leave early for the NFL, but all four returned and Clemson has a veteran quarterback and moves to No. 23 on my experience chart and should make the playoff for a third straight year.
2. Florida State Seminoles
FSU was preseason AP No. 2 last season and stood toe-to-toe with Alabama but lost quarterback Deondre Francois for the year and barely got back to a bowl game, finishing 7-6. The Seminoles have two quarterbacks who have been full-time starters, and head coach Willie Taggart is happy with the talent he has inherited. Florida State does host Clemson and last season, even in a down year, had the ball in the fourth quarter down by three points on the Clemson side of the field. Florida State is also my No. 7 surprise team.
3. Boston College Eagles
Boston College was an average team in the first half of 2017 and opened just 2-4, but once running back AJ Dillon emerged, the Eagles went 5-1 down the stretch but lost their bowl game despite a 383-200 yardage edge. They did so despite losing their quarterback, top center, top linebacker, top defensive end and top cornerback (all three captains) for the year at some point during the season. Boston College is the most experienced team in the ACC (No. 11 in my experience chart), and despite facing Miami and Virginia Tech out of the Coastal, the Eagles could be a surprise contender in the Atlantic.
3. Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals lose superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson and now have the least experienced team in the ACC at just No. 115 in my experience chart. Louisville was 12-1 in 2013 but has hit only nine, eight, nine and eight wins under head coach Bobby Petrino the past four seasons. Louisville does draw a more favorable schedule than Boston College, as it avoids the top four teams from the Coastal. Louisville will be better than expected and top the 4-4 ACC record that it put up with Jackson in '17.
5. NC State Wolfpack
Unlike Clemson, which returns its star-studded defensive line, the Wolfpack lose a first-round draft pick, two third-round picks and a fourth-round pick from the defensive front and are just No. 91 on my experience chart with 11 returning starters. NC State does return quarterback Ryan Finley, and head coach Dave Doeren is doing a fine job of recruiting and developing players. My nine sets of power ratings have the Wolfpack anywhere from 6-6 to 9-3, and they will get to a fifth straight bowl game.
6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
I have talked to head coach Dave Clawson all 10 years he has been an FBS coach. I always enjoy our hourlong conversations ... until the end. He usually says, "Hey Phil, you going to pick us low again?" The last two years I have pegged Wake Forest sixth in the Atlantic (like most others), but Wake finished tied for fourth in '16 and tied for third last season. This year my power ratings have Wake sixth again. I actually still listed them in sixth and realize I will probably get ribbed by the coach AGAIN next spring.
7. Syracuse Orange
This pick is scary. Last year Syracuse was 4-3 at one point and not only beat No. 2 Clemson but also took LSU to the wire in Death Valley. The Orange almost upset No. 8 Miami on the road and had a 463-343 yardage edge at Florida State but lost by three. They have a lot of factors pointing up and at No. 39 are the third-most experienced team in the ACC. Unfortunately, most of my nine sets of power ratings when played into their schedule have the Orange here, and I think they will be the media's pick for the No. 7 spot as well.
Coastal Division
1. Miami Hurricanes
Miami had never played in the ACC title game and never had a better record than 5-3 in ACC play until last season. I picked the Hurricanes to win the Coastal, and Miami was my No. 2 surprise team in '17 and lived up to that billing. The Canes were 10-0 and if they beat Clemson in the ACC title game would have made the playoff. A banged-up offense had them drop their last three games. Miami was only plus-24.4 yards per game in ACC play (sixth best), and the Hurricanes do pull both Florida State and Boston College out of the Atlantic division. This is head coach Mark Richt's best team here, and Miami is a national title contender.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC was 13-4 in ACC play in 2015-16 but had a lot of factors pointing down last season. Not only was North Carolina No. 112 on my experience chart, but it had two net close losses and the 44 starts lost to injury were in the top 10 of the FBS. Anything that could go wrong did last year for the Tar Heels. Head coach Larry Fedora did not lose it overnight, and if last year's bad fortune turns into this year's good fortune, the Tar Heels could get back to being a contender in the Coastal.
2. Duke Blue Devils
Duke went from 10 to nine to eight to four wins from 2013 to 2016 but improved to seven wins in '17 and may start a trend of improving records. Duke has my No. 1 set of linebackers in the ACC and goes from No. 82 on my experience chart up to No. 40. The Blue Devils do draw Clemson out of the Atlantic but have an improved offense and defense and had minus-four net close losses last year, so they were four plays away from being 11-2. Duke has a shot at finishing in the top half of the Coastal for the first time since 2014.
4. Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech is 11-5 the last two years in ACC play, and this year's group is just as strong as the past two years. While Miami is 12-4, no other Coastal team has a winning record in that span. Virginia Tech returns quarterback Joshua Jackson as well as seven starters on offense, and Bud Foster guided the league's best defense in '17 as VT allowed just 15.1 points per game in ACC play. While the defense is younger, this team will once again be a contender in the Coastal.
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Paul Johnson has had three non-bowl seasons and followed each up with a winning season. Georgia Tech was plus-29.6 yards per game in ACC play and had minus-two net close losses last year, so it was two plays from being 7-5. Georgia Tech is an improved squad with a veteran quarterback and offensive line, but it draws arguably the toughest schedule of any Coastal team. Georgia Tech hosts both Clemson and Miami, so most of its winnable games are on the road. The Yellow Jackets also draw a road game at Louisville along with Clemson out of the Atlantic.
6. Pittsburgh Panthers
The Panthers had been to nine straight bowl games, but that streak was broken last season as they went 5-7. While just four starters are back on offense, each unit improved, and the Panthers will be stronger. Head coach Pat Narduzzi is known for defense and has the best defense in his four years. Even with 2017's losing record, Narduzzi is 14-10 in ACC play, and Pittsburgh avoids Clemson, Florida State, Louisville and Boston College out of the Atlantic and should get back to a bowl game in '18.
7. Virginia Cavaliers
Head coach Bronco Mendenhall did a good job getting the Cavaliers to a bowl game last year. He honored all of the previous staff's commits in his first year, so while this is Year 3, next season will be the one in which he gets the typical third-year improvement. Virginia will look different on offense, with more mobile quarterbacks and a much improved rush game, but will not be as proficient through the air. While eight starters return on defense, they lose their three All-ACC players in linebacker Micah Kiser, free safety Quin Blanding and defensive end Andrew Brown.
