Steele's 2017 Toughest Schedule Rankings - ESPN Insidera

[iowajerms]

Part 1 of 2

Attached is a .pdf file of the article if you want to see his analysis.

TOUGHEST 25 SCHEDULES

1. Massachusetts Minutemen: Opponents' 2016 record: 101-54 (65.16%); opponents with a winning 2016 record: 9; opponents that played in a 2016 postseason game: 9; opponents that finished 2016 in the AP Top 25: 2
2. LSU Tigers: Opponents' 2016 record: 98-58 (62.82%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 9/10/4
3. East Carolina Pirates: Opponents' 2016 record: 98-59 (62.42%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 8/9/3
4. South Carolina Gamecocks: Opponents' 2016 record: 98-61 (61.64%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 10/11/3
5. Tulane Green Wave: Opponents' 2016 record: 94-59 (61.44%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 8/8/2
6. Syracuse Orange: Opponents' 2016 record: 95-60 (61.29%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 10/11/5
7. Fresno State Bulldogs: Opponents' 2016 record: 96-61 (61.15%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 7/8/3
8. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Opponents' 2016 record: 95-61 (60.90%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 9/10/4
T9. Duke Blue Devils: Opponents' 2016 record: 94-61 (60.65%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 11/11/3
T9. Vanderbilt Commodores: Opponents' 2016 record: 94-61 (60.65%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 8/9/3
11. Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Opponents' 2016 record: 93-62 (60.00%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 8/9/2
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Opponents' 2016 record: 94-63 (59.87%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 10/11/3
13. Mississippi State Bulldogs: Opponents' 2016 record: 92-62 (59.74%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 10/10/3
14. Illinois Fighting Illini: Opponents' 2016 record: 92-63 (59.35%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 8/9/3
15. Florida Gators: Opponents' 2016 record: 82-57 (58.99%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 8/9/4
T16. Michigan State Spartans: Opponents' 2016 record: 91-64 (58.71%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 7/9/4
T16. UCLA Bruins: Opponents' 2016 record: 91-64 (58.71%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 7/8/5
18. Clemson Tigers: Opponents' 2016 record: 90-64 (58.44%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 9/10/4
T19. Auburn Tigers: Opponents' 2016 record: 89-64 (58.17%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 7/8/3
T19. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Opponents' 2016 record: 89-64 (58.17%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 7/7/3
21. Utah Utes: Opponents' 2016 record: 88-64 (57.89%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 7/7/4
T22. Virginia Cavaliers: Opponents' 2016 record: 88-65 (57.52%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 8/9/3
T22. Virginia Tech Hokies: Opponents' 2016 record: 88-65 (57.52%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 8/8/3
24. Georgia State Panthers: Opponents' 2016 record: 86-64 (57.33%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 7/6/1
25. Washington State Cougars: Opponents' 2016 record: 86-65 (56.95%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 6/6/5

Spoiler: 26-50

T26. Louisiana Monroe
T26. Texas A&M
T28. Florida State
T28. Ole Miss
T28. Utah State
31. Pittsburgh
32. Oregon State
33. Air Force
34. Rice
35. California
T36. Arizona State
T36. Georgia
T36. Maryland
T39. Colorado State
T39. Purdue
41. Iowa State
42. Michigan
43. Oregon
T44. Rutgers
T44. Tennessee
T46. Kansas
T46. Texas
T46. Wake Forest
49. Arkansas
50. NC State

Spoiler: 51-75

T51. Oklahoma State
T51. Texas State
53. Boise State
54. Alabama
55. Nebraska
56. Iowa
57. Miami (FL)
T58. Navy
T58. New Mexico State
T58. Northern Illinois
T58. UNLV
62. Charlotte
63. USC
64. Ohio State
65. Georgia Southern
66. Boston College
67. San Jose
T68. Kansas State
T68. North Carolina
T68. Stanford
T71. Florida Atlantic
T71. Nevada
73. UTEP
T74. Kentucky
T74. Missouri

 

[iowajerms]

Part 2 of 2

Spoiler: 76-105

76. Ball State
T77. Arizona
T77. Baylor
T77. Louisiana Lafayette
T77. TCU
T81. Toledo
T81. UCF
T83. Penn State
T83. Temple
85. Army
T86. Oklahoma
T86. South Alabama
T88. Houston
T88. New Mexico
T88. SMU
T91. Colorado
T91. Idaho
93. Kent State
T94. Louisville
T94. Northwestern
T94. Wisconsin
97. Eastern Michigan
98. Troy
99. Connecticut
T100. Buffalo
T100. San Diego State
T102. Akron
T102. Minnesota
104. UAB
105. Coastal Carolina

WEAKEST 25 SCHEDULES

106. Marshall Thundering Herd: Opponents' 2016 record: 73-79 (48.03%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/7/0
107. North Texas Mean Green: Opponents' 2016 record: 66-72 (47.83%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/6/0
108. West Virginia Mountaineers: Opponents' 2016 record: 71-79 (47.33%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/6/3
109. Arkansas State Red Wolves: Opponents' 2016 record: 70-78 (47.30%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 4/5/1
110. Indiana Hoosiers: Opponents' 2016 record: 71-80 (47.02%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 4/5/4
111. Wyoming Cowboys: Opponents' 2016 record: 70-80 (46.67%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/6/0
112. Western Michigan Broncos: Opponents' 2016 record: 69-79 (46.62%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/5/1
T113. Central Michigan Chippewas: Opponents' 2016 record: 70-81 (46.36%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/6/1
T113. Cincinnati Bearcats: Opponents' 2016 record: 70-81 (46.36%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 4/6/2
115. Florida International Golden Panthers: Opponents' 2016 record: 69-81 (46.00%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 3/6/0
116. Washington Huskies: Opponents' 2016 record: 68-80 (45.95%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/4/3
117. Old Dominion Monarchs: Opponents' 2016 record: 68-82 (45.33%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/5/1
118. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: Opponents' 2016 record: 62-75 (45.26%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 4/5/1
119. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Opponents' 2016 record: 62-75 (45.26%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 3/4/0
120. Bowling Green Falcons: Opponents' 2016 record: 67-83 (44.67%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/6/0
121. UT San Antonio Roadrunners: Opponents' 2016 record: 61-76 (44.53%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 5/5/0
122. BYU Cougars: Opponents' 2016 record: 71-91 (43.83%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 4/6/3
123. Memphis Tigers: Opponents' 2016 record: 64-84 (43.24%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 3/4/0
124. South Florida Bulls: Opponents' 2016 record: 63-85 (42.57%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 3/4/0
125. Appalachian State Mountaineers: Opponents' 2016 record: 62-84 (42.47%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 4/4/0
126. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Opponents' 2016 record: 58-81 (41.73%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 2/7/0
127. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Opponents' 2016 record: 61-87 (41.22%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 3/4/0
128. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: Opponents' 2016 record: 60-89 (40.27%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 4/4/1
129. Ohio Bobcats: Opponents' 2016 record: 54-93 (36.73%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 2/4/0
130. Miami (OH) RedHawks: Opponents' 2016 record: 50-97 (34.01%); opponents with a winning 2016 record/made postseason/finished in Top 25: 2/3/0

 

[7Samurai13]

Wow, Washington has the easiest schedule of all P5 teams? That must be wrong.

 

[4down20]

Wow, Washington has the easiest schedule of all P5 teams? That must be wrong.

In before @AlaskaGuy cries about Alabama's schedule.

 

[iowajerms]

Power 5 Conferences

Spoiler: 1 - SEC - Avg ranking: 27.21

(2) LSU
(4) South Carolina
(9) Vanderbilt
(13) Mississippi State
(15) Florida
(19) Auburn
(26) Texas A&M
(28) Ole Miss
(36) Georgia
(44) Tennessee
(49) Arkansas
(64) Alabama
(74) Kentucky
(74) Missouri

Spoiler: 2 - ACC - 37.36

(6) Syracuse
(8) Georgia Tech
(9) Duke
(18) Clemson
(22) Virginia
(22) Virginia Tech
(26) Florida State
(31) Pittsburgh
(46) Wake Forest
(50) NC State
(57) Miami
(66) Boston College
(68) North Carolina
(94) Louisville

Spoiler: 3 - Pac 12 - 51.92

(16) UCLA
(21) Utah
(25) Washington State
(32) Oregon State
(35) California
(36) Arizona State
(43) Oregon
(63) USC
(68) Stanford
(77) Arizona State
(91) Colorado
(116) Washington

Spoiler: 4 - B1G - 60.64

(14) Illinois
(16) Michigan State
(36) Maryland
(39) Purdue
(42) Michigan
(44) Rutgers
(55) Nebraska
(56) Iowa
(64) Ohio State
(83) Penn State
(94) Northwestern
(94) Wisconsin
(102) Minnesota
(110) Indiana

Spoiler: 5 - Big 12 - 61.70

(19) Texas Tech
(41) Iowa State
(44) Kansas
(46) Texas
(51) Oklahoma State
(68) Kansas State
(77) Baylor
(77) TCU
(86) Oklahoma
(108) West Virginia

 

[B_dub]

We can't make either list!

 

[tducey]

Interesting, much thanks for sharing this. Let's see how many of these teams with the easy schedules perform well this season.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Auburn plays both Clemson and Alabama...ranked 19th?

Seems low to me.

 

[outofyourmind]

Kansas has the toughest schedule.
Lets be honest.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Kansas has the toughest schedule.
Lets be honest.

Since Texas has basically the same schedule and Kansas owns them, I'd give the nod to the Longhorns.

 

[theboardref]

This is why even if LSU made a home run hire, can't really judge off of next year. Love how LSU once again screws season ticket holders by playing neutral site games.

 

[Olyduck]

The only problem i have is that these kinds of things are based on last year.
like imagine a team had Oregon, Michigan State and Notre Dame and Ole Miss on their schedules last season. looking at teams that were 9-5, 12-2, 10-3, 10-3 in 2015 they would have a tough schedule. but then those teams went 4-8, 3-9, 4-8 and 5-7 last year and not so much.
and on the flip if they had Colorado 4-9 to 10-4, Georgia Tech 3-9 to 9-4, Kansas State 6-7 to 9-4 and Washington 7-6 to 12-2 takes a weaker looking schedule to a strong one.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Wow, Washington has the easiest schedule of all P5 teams? That must be wrong.

Did you see his formula. It goes by winning percentage. So if your opponent is a G5 or FCS worm yet had a solid season last year it helps.

 

[USCDoom]

If preseason ranking are worthless, what the Fuck does that make preseason SoS?

 

[4down20]

Did you see his formula. It goes by winning percentage. So if your opponent is a G5 or FCS worm yet had a solid season last year it helps.

So you are playing even shittier G5/FCS teams?

 

[jon2tanman]

P5 schools should stop playing fcs teams!

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

My issue with this is that it unfairly impacts teams in conferences with 9-game conference schedules. The PAC12 gets 6 more losses by having this game, which negatively impacts the ability for teams to get in the top 25 of this metric, even if their schedule is stacked.

 

[7Samurai13]

My issue with this is that it unfairly impacts teams in conferences with 9-game conference schedules. The PAC12 gets 6 more losses by having this game, which negatively impacts the ability for teams to get in the top 25 of this metric, even if their schedule is stacked.

Potentially 6 more losses. They aren't definite wins. See Iowa losing to NDSU.

 

[Olyduck]

Did you see his formula. It goes by winning percentage. So if your opponent is a G5 or FCS worm yet had a solid season last year it helps.

exactly.
so this makes 9-4 Houston, 9-4 Toledo, 9-4 New Mexico, 9-4 Idaho, and 9-4 BYU
equal to playing 9-4 Tennessee, 9-4 Utah, 9-4 Nebraska, 9-4 Kansas State and 9-4 Louisville but which slate would you rather play?

 

[Codaxx]

exactly.
so this makes 9-4 Houston, 9-4 Toledo, 9-4 New Mexico, 9-4 Idaho, and 9-4 BYU
equal to playing 9-4 Tennessee, 9-4 Utah, 9-4 Nebraska, 9-4 Kansas State and 9-4 Louisville but which slate would you rather play?

So you are pissed this makes 9-4 Houston look equal to 9-4 Louisville? Do you realize there was a 36-10 game that Houston won vs Louisville?

Pick better examples next time