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So we go to a bowl...

ForkEmBucky

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Kind of looks like Outback honestly. I like MSU's upset potential, but it's just potential as of right now. Even if the Badgers drop one to PSU, I think they probably get the B1G's 3rd best bowl. That's Outback this year, unless MSU wins. Then we're Cap 1 bound.

Unless you guys still think we would leap MSU for the Cap 1?
 

Smart

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Assuming we beat Penn State:

If Ohio State wins over MSU and Clemson loses to SoCar, we are pretty much a lock for a BCS bowl.

Even if Clemson wins, a BCS bowl will have a choice between us and the #2 Big 12 team (could be Oklahoma State, Baylor, or Oklahoma). The odds are pretty good that we get picked there, especially if Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma.

If Michigan State beats Ohio State, they both go to BCS bowls. We wind up in the Cap One bowl.

I don't see any sequence of events where we end up in the Outback. It would take them picking a two-loss Michigan State team over us. Their best two wins would be Iowa and Minnesota. We have both those and BYU. Their losses would be Notre Dame and a neutral-field loss to Ohio State. Arizona State is slightly better than Notre Dame (even with the H2H loss), and a seven point loss in the Shoe is better than any neutral-field loss. And that isn't considering the Debacle in the Desert, the fact that our fanbase is much bigger, or the fact that we travel better.
 

Doctor Krieger

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I think we jump MSU for either the Orange or Cap One (if they lose).
 

Great Dayne

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We're almost a lock for a BCS bowl unless OSU loses to MSU or the Badgers lose to Penn St. Voters will take UW over MSU reguardless of final BCS ranking. OSU could end up in the championship game still. Lastly, rarely does the conference championship loser ever make a BCS bowl.
 

ForkEmBucky

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So probably Orange Bowl vs Clemson?
 

Papalou

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I would be shocked if Wisky doesnt get a BCS bowl.
 

Red_Alert

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To fall to the Outback Bowl, I think Wisky would have to lose and there only be one Big 10 team picked for BCS..

That scenario would be Ohio St winning out and missing the NC game.

Ohio St: Rose
Mich St - Cap One
Wisky - Outback
 

ForkEmBucky

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I'm more and more convinced that we jump MSU should they lose.
 

Smart

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I'm more and more convinced that we jump MSU should they lose.

There's no way in hell they'd get in over us. We have the same wins, by more points, plus a BYU win, and better losses.

I'm much more concerned about Clemson, one-loss Baylor or two-loss Oklahoma. Hell, even two-loss Oregon scares me more than two-loss Michigan State.

If MSU got in over us, it would be a pity vote because they haven't made a BCS bowl and we've done it three years in a row. And none of the bowls gave them the pity vote in 2011, when they had a much better case and Michigan had a much worse case.
 
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