Smart's Bubble Watch

[Smart]

Below is my bubble watch, with the odds of each team to be an At-Large pick to the NCAA tourney if they lose in the their conference tournament. It will be updated once every other week until Selection Sunday.

Locks (99%+):
Duke
North Carolina
Kansas
Missouri
Baylor
Syracuse
Marquette
Ohio State
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UNLV
Kentucky
Florida

All But Locks (90%-99%):
Florida State
Virginia
Georgetown
Michigan
SDSU
Gonzaga

Most Likely In (60%-90%):
Saint Louis
Iowa State
Kansas State
Notre Dame
Louisville
West Virginia
Cincy
UConn
Purdue
Illinois
Indiana
Creighton
Wichita State
New Mexico
Murray State
California
Vanderbilt
Mississippi State
Alabama
Saint Mary’s

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%):
Xavier
NC State
Texas
Minnesota
Southern Miss
Memphis
Wyoming
Washington
BYU

Most Likely Out (10%-40%):
Temple
Dayton
Maryland
Miami
Oklahoma
South Florida
Northwestern
Long Beach State
VCU
UCF
Cleveland State
Colorado State
Oregon
Colorado
Stanford
Arizona
Ole Miss
Arkansas
Oral Roberts
MTSU
Nevada

All But Out (1%-10%):
UMass
La Salle
St. Bonaventure
St. Joseph
Clemson
Virginia Tech
TAMU
Seton Hall
Pitt
Weber State
Nebraska
George Mason
Drexel
Tulsa
Marshall
Milwaukee
Iona
Akron
Ohio
Wagner
LSU
Davidson
UT-Arlington
South Dakota State
New Mexico State

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

 

[Smart]

Some Notes On This:

1. This is not meant to be a judgment of whether teams would get in if the season ended today. If that were the case, many teams that aren’t locks (such as Murray State) would be locks. Of course, this adds a subjective element to this. How good I think a team is does affect how good I think the rest of their season will be (and thus their chance of getting in).
2. I realize that chaos does rule over college basketball. Because of this, my designations have a conservative slant. I fully expect all of the “All But Locks” to be locks shortly, and I expect the “All But Dones” to be eliminated shortly. At this moment, though, a comeback is not out of the question or collapse is not out of the question.
3. I judge teams primarily off of a few factors: Record, Good Wins, Bad Losses, KenPom rankings, and the Eye Test.
4. Mid-majors have a smaller margin of error, so good mid-majors like Creighton are less likely to be locks than their major conference counterparts.
5. The pure numbers (39 teams “Most Likely In” or better) suggest that the “On The Bubble” Teams should feel very good about themselves. Likewise, there are some “Most Likely Out” teams that do have a very legitimate shot at making the dance as an At-Large.
6. Teams are sorted by the order I evaluated them (basically, the order of ESPN’s Standings Page). Within a category, the order does not matter.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

interesting, sir

good job, must be a lot of work

 

[Bone]

1. Cuse
1. Kentucky
1. Baylor
1. Ohio St.

In that order.

 

[State43]

1. Cuse
1. Kentucky
1. Baylor
1. Ohio St.

In that order.

Baylor will not be a 1 seed. They have at least 2-3 more losses left. ISU will get them at home I am betting as well.

 

[KansasSooner]

After tonight you can put OU in the definitely out...

 

[huskers1217]

fucking smart....

you pick on Nebraska..




























is probably dead on

 

[HighTide]

Good job.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Good list.

Tomorrow night Nebraska and Northwestern will switch places on that list though