Smart's Bubble Watch (Through 3/13)

[Smart]

Autobids (14):
Belmont
Harvard
Florida Gulf Coast
Liberty
Gonzaga
James Madison
Valparaiso
Iona
LIU-Brooklyn
Creighton
Davidson
Western Kentucky
South Dakota State
Bucknell

Locks (99%+) (39):
Saint Louis
Miami
Duke
NC State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Georgetown
Syracuse
Louisville
Notre Dame
Pitt
Indiana
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio State
Memphis
New Mexico
Colorado State
Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Marquette
Minnesota
UNLV
Oregon
Missouri
VCU
Oklahoma
Illinois
UCLA
Cal
Butler
Iowa State
Wichita State
Cincinnati
San Diego State (+)
Colorado (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (2):
St. Mary’s
Temple (++)

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (3):
La Salle
Kentucky
Villanova (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (5):
Virginia (-)
Boise State (-)
Tennessee
Iowa
Ole Miss (-)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (2):
Baylor
Middle Tennessee

All But Out (1%-10%) (4):
Alabama (-)
Arkansas
Arizona State
Southern Miss

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Maryland (--)
UMass (-)
Louisiana Tech (-)

 

[Smart]

Some Notes:

- At the very least, there are eight autobids that will go teams not currently in the dance. This means that, as of today, the bubble is between Boise State and Tennessee. If teams like Memphis lose their conference tourney, the bubble gets even tougher.

- I said I would make St. Mary's a lock if they beat San Diego, but I can't justify that with the way the buble teams have played. Plus, they had to go to OT to beat San Diego and they got crushed by the Zags. If the bubble teams lose early, they could still be a lock, but I wouldn't count on it.

- Boise State probably has a tourney-worthy resume, but the committee puts a lot of value on the ability of teams to win pressure-packed games against Bubble-ish teams. that loss to San Diego State was huge. My hunch is that the First Four is in their future.

- I think the bubble is pretty strong this year. I can remember years when there were 65 teams and the bubble was much weaker.

- The seven teams to focus on play the following teams in their next games:
Villanova: Louisville (Win and they're in)
La Salle: Presumably Butler (Win and they are almost certainly in...lose and they likely become one of the closest Bubble teams)
Virginia: Presumably NC State (The equivalent of a play-in game)
Iowa: Northwestern (Lose and they are unquestionably out)
Tennessee: Mississippi St. (Likely have to win this and beat Alabama next round)
Kentucky: Presumably Arkansas (IMO, win and they're in)
Ole Miss: Presumably Mizzou (Win puts them on right side of bubble...lose and they're out)

 

[huskers1217]

Smart..do you see any surprise winners of the conf tourneys?

 

[Smart]

Smart..do you see any surprise winners of the conf tourneys?

I'm not sure how much of a surprise it would be, but I like Southern Miss to win Conference USA. I don't think they are much worse than Memphis and they have a hell of a lot more to play for.

I think there will be probably be one other conference tourney where a bid gets taken away, but I can't pinpoint which one it'll be. Maybe the Pac 12 (ASU or Washington), maybe the A-10 (Xavier or UMass), or Big 12 (Baylor).

 

[rmilia1]

I think Iowas season is going to come down to their game tomorrow ( cant see anyway we lose to NW tonight after all the injuries). A win over MSU I think gets the job done assuming nothing crazy happens in some of the other tournaments.

 

[Clayton]

Baylor got robbed. A blind ref literally cost a team that throttled Kansas their tourney bid on a silly phantom call that refs usually allow at the end of games even if there was contact. I think they should just throw the computer rankings away and let them in as a 12 seed

 

[Shanemansj13]

Baylor got robbed. A blind ref literally cost a team that throttled Kansas their tourney bid on a silly phantom call that refs usually allow at the end of games even if there was contact. I think they should just throw the computer rankings away and let them in as a 12 seed

The facts are that Baylor had many opportunities earlier in season to win games and lost to some bad opponents. One game or call didn't decide the fate of BU.

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

Baylor got robbed. A blind ref literally cost a team that throttled Kansas their tourney bid on a silly phantom call that refs usually allow at the end of games even if there was contact. I think they should just throw the computer rankings away and let them in as a 12 seed

the only way an 18-14 team gets in is if they win the conference tourney...people complaining that Baylor doesn't make the tournament shock me

 

[rmilia1]

Bubble stuff falling Iowas way with the Baylor loss, Virginia getting beat by NC State, Bama and Tennessee are playing right now too so one of them will be done. A win tonight SHOULD get the job done IMO. Hell even Nebraska is in the top 100 now after their win lasr night so we gain a top 100 win and lose a bad loss. I like it

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

there its no fucking reason Iowa shouldn't be in...but espn loves the big 12 cock and thinks Baylor had a better shot than us

 

[wildturkey]

LOL Kentucky. That bubble may have just burst

 

[Shanemansj13]

On another note. Some potential #1 seeds lost, Georgetown and Duke. Leaves a couple spots open for tOSU.

 

[Clayton]

Honestly, after seeing the 2nd half of the Mizzou/Ol Miss game, I feel like we set up 2 SEC teams to get knocked out of the first round.

 

[Clayton]

the only way an 18-14 team gets in is if they win the conference tourney...people complaining that Baylor doesn't make the tournament shock me

Its only because they should still be in the Big 12 tourney. College calls are random as hell. Im not even sure I can take this sport seriously because it is so random