Smart's Bubble Watch (Selection Saturday)

[Smart]

Autobids* (25):
North Florida
Coastal Carolina
Northeastern
Valparaiso
Manhattan
Northern Iowa
Robert Morris
Belmont
Lafayette
Wofford
North Dakota State
Texas Southern
Gonzaga
America East
Big Sky
Big West
Conference USA
Ivy League
MAC
MEAC
Southland
Sun Belt
WAC
Stolen Bid 1
Stolen Bid 2

Locks (99%+) (32):
Virginia
Notre Dame
North Carolina
Duke
Louisville
Kansas
Iowa State
Villanova
Butler
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Wichita State
Arizona
Utah
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Baylor
Arkansas
Georgetown
West Virginia
Maryland
SMU
VCU (+)
San Diego State (+)
Michigan State (+)
Providence (+)
St. Johns (+)
Iowa (++)
NC State (++)
Cincy (++)
Xavier (+++)
Oregon (+++)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (6):
Dayton
LSU
Georgia (+)
Colorado State (++)
Boise State (++)
Davidson (++)

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (4):
Purdue
----------------------------(Start of First Four)
Ole Miss
Temple (+)
Oklahoma State (-)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (5):
Indiana (-)
----------------------------(Projected Tourney Cutoff)
Texas (+)
Tulsa
BYU (+)
UCLA (+)


Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (2):
Miami
Stephen F. Austin (+)

All But Out (1%-10%) (5):
Murray State
Old Dominion
Texas A&M (---)
UConn
Illinois (--)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Minnesota (-)
Vanderbilt (-)
George Washington (-)
Seton Hall (-)
Alabama (-)
St. Mary’s (-)
Louisiana Tech (-)
Pitt (--)
Rhode Island (--)
Stanford (---)

 

[Smart]

Some Notes:

1. Obviously, I didn't include all the Autobids. It would have gotten messy to put autobids for leagues where the winner is already a lock. If the league is listed, it means the tourney champ is projected to miss the tournament.

2. Please note that I included two stolen bids. If I did my list like Lunardi or most of the others who assume the tourney locks will win the tourney, the cutoff is between Tulsa and BYU. While there has been chalk so far, I still think two stolen bids are likely. Specifically, I like Wyoming to steal a bid tonight and UConn to steal the American Conference bid.

3. I ranked within the categories between "Most Likely In" and "All But Out." The other categories are not ranked.

4. I expect to update this either late tonight or tomorrow morning. I like to do one after the all the games are played, but there is a decent chance that I will be at the B1G Title Game tomorrow. If I am, I won't get to come up with a final watch.

5. The other typical notes apply.

 

[Smart]

Sunday Morning

Autobids* (29):
North Florida
Coastal Carolina
Northeastern
Valparaiso
Manhattan
Northern Iowa
Robert Morris
Belmont
Lafayette
Wofford
North Dakota State
Texas Southern
Gonzaga
Notre Dame
Iowa State
Villanova
Albany
Eastern Washington
UC Irvine
UAB
Harvard
Buffalo
Hampton
Wyoming
Arizona
Stephen F. Austin
New Mexico State
Sun Belt
Stolen Bid (UConn Projection)

Locks (99%+) (31):
Virginia
North Carolina
Duke
Louisville
Kansas
Butler
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Wichita State
Utah
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Baylor
Arkansas
Georgetown
West Virginia
Maryland
SMU
VCU
San Diego State
Michigan State
Providence
St. Johns
Iowa
NC State
Cincy
Xavier
Oregon
Dayton (+)
Davidson (+)
Georgia (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (2):
LSU
Colorado State

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (4):
Boise State (-)
Purdue
----------------------------(Start of First Four)
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (5):
Temple (-)
Indiana
----------------------------(Projected Tourney Cutoff)
Texas
BYU
Tulsa

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (2):
UCLA (-)
Miami

All But Out (1%-10%) (4):
UConn
Murray State
Old Dominion
Texas A&M

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Illinois (-)

 

[jontaejones]

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (4):
Boise State (-)
Purdue
----------------------------(Start of First Four)
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (5):
Temple (-)
Indiana
----------------------------(Projected Tourney Cutoff)
Texas
BYU
Tulsa

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (2):
UCLA (-)
Miami

I believe UConn will squeeze a spot, so I would like to see in...

Temple, BYU

Out...

Indiana and Ole Miss.

I wonder if the committee takes into account how many people actually want to see a team play: BYU (lots), Ole Miss (nobody).

 

[Smart]

I wonder if the committee takes into account how many people actually want to see a team play: BYU (lots), Ole Miss (nobody).

After they picked Iona a couple years ago, I really got the feeling that style was a big reason why. Of course, they also picked UAB (a terribly slow team) the first year, so who knows.

I also wonder whether the fact that BYU was already in the First Four once could hurt them. If they were given the nod in a close bubble once, I think it's human nature to feel less sympathy if you leave them off this year.

 

[jontaejones]

After they picked Iona a couple years ago, I really got the feeling that style was a big reason why. Of course, they also picked UAB (a terribly slow team) the first year, so who knows.

I also wonder whether the fact that BYU was already in the First Four once could hurt them. If they were given the nod in a close bubble once, I think it's human nature to feel less sympathy if you leave them off this year.

I think a lot of it is perception.

As an east coaster, I think of the whole middle of the SEC as teams that are long, rangy, athletic, and medoicre basketball teams. You could replace one with the other.

But BYU brings star power, an exciting style of play and a whole religion (a wealthy one at that) to back it.

It'll put butts in the seats and eyes on the TV.

 

[uncfan103]

So if you gave automatic bids to teams that won their conference outright, as well as teams that won their conference tournament, the bubble decreases by ten spots and it's almost all power conference teams that had mediocre seasons and are no more likely to upset higher ranked teams than the conference champions that are going to be playing in the NIT. Interesting to look at it that way.