Smart's Bubble Watch (Final)

[Smart]

Due to a fairly large error in my last one (South Dakota State not listed as an autobid; I don't know how that happened), I thought I needed to repost with all my changes. This one is actually better, as the dividing line is after team 4 of an eight team "Right On the Bubble":

Autobids:
UNC Asheville
Belmont
Murray State
Creighton
Montana
VCU
Detroit
South Dakota State
Loyola (MD)
LIU Brooklyn
Lehigh
Davidson
Western Kentucky
St. Mary’s
Harvard
Vermont
Missouri
Louisville
Long Beach State
Memphis
Ohio
Norfolk State
New Mexico
Colorado
Lamar
Miss Valley State
New Mexico State
Florida State
Vanderbilt
St. Bonaventure
(MSU/OSU Winner)

Locks (99%+):
Duke
North Carolina
Kansas
Baylor
Syracuse
Marquette
(MSU/OSU Loser)
Wisconsin
UNLV
Kentucky
Florida
Georgetown
Michigan
SDSU
Gonzaga
Notre Dame
Wichita State
Indiana
Iowa State
Virginia
Saint Louis
Kansas State
Cincy
Temple
Purdue
Alabama

All But Locks (90%-99%):
BYU
California (-)
West Virginia (+)

Most Likely In (60%-90%):
Texas
South Florida
UConn
Southern Miss (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%):
NC State
Colorado State
Mississippi State
Xavier
---------------------------- (Dividing Line)
Washington
Drexel (-)
Miami
Northwestern

Most Likely Out (10%-40%):
Ole Miss
Seton Hall
Arizona (--)

All But Out (1%-10%):
Oregon

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

Newly Done:
Tennessee (--)
UCF (-)
Iona (-)

This gives:
31 Autobids
26 Locks
3 All Abut Locks
4 Most Likely Ins
8 Right On the Bubble (DL after Four)
3 Most Likely Out
1 All But Out

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

well done, sir

will be interesting to see how the selections go

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

I'd put Oral Roberts in the all but out category

they have a decent but not great profile, with a decent RPI

there is a slight chance the committee could put them in.

 

[Smart]

I'd put Oral Roberts in the all but out category

they have a decent but not great profile, with a decent RPI

there is a slight chance the committee could put them in.

They just don't have enough good wins to warrant consideration. If you want to get an at-large in the Summit League, you have to have multiple good OOC wins. They only have one win over a likely tourney team OOC (Xavier), and that team's best players were suspended.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

They just don't have enough good wins to warrant consideration. If you want to get an at-large in the Summit League, you have to have multiple good OOC wins. They only have one win over a likely tourney team OOC (Xavier), and that team's best players were suspended.

guess I should have said Iona