Smart's Bubble Watch (3/9)

[Smart]

Autobids (3):
Belmont
Harvard
Florida Gulf Coast

Locks (99%+) (39):
Saint Louis
Miami
Duke
NC State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Georgetown
Syracuse
Louisville
Notre Dame
Pitt
Indiana
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio State
Memphis
New Mexico
Colorado State
Arizona
Florida
Gonzaga
North Carolina
Marquette
Minnesota
UNLV
Oregon
Missouri
VCU
Oklahoma
Illinois
UCLA
Creighton
Cal
Butler (+)
Iowa State (+)
Wichita State (+)
Cincinnati (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (3):
San Diego State
Colorado
St. Mary’s

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (5):
Ole Miss
Virginia
La Salle
Kentucky
Boise State (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (4):
Villanova
Temple
Tennessee
Iowa

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (4):
Baylor
Alabama
Maryland (-)
Middle Tennessee (-)

All But Out (1%-10%) (5):
Arkansas
Arizona State
UMass (-)
Louisiana Tech (-)
Southern Miss (-)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Akron (--)
Davidson (-)
Xavier (-)
LSU (-)

 

[Smart]

Some Notes:

- After weeks of bubble regression, this was a very strong week for the bubble teams. As a result, some big wins had remarkable little impact. Also, some of the mid-majors near the bubble lost a fair amount of ground.

- If St. Mary's can avoid taking a bad loss later tonight, they will be a lock.

- There is not a big divide at all between the "Most Likely Ins" and the "On the Bubbles." There is a much bigger divide between the "On the Bubbles" and "Most Likely Outs." The "Most Likely Outs" need some major help.

- I almost put Kentucky on the bubble. Even with the big win, they are way too shaky after Noel went down. They should not feel secure at all.

- I don't buy Tennessee as being in the dance over Kentucky or Ole Miss like a lot of people. They have a worse conference record and much worse tempo statistics. IMO, they would be out if the tourney started today.

- It depends on how many suprises there are in conference tourneys, but at the moment, Villanova is my last team in.

- The "All But Outs" all could also be considered dead. There isn't much hope at all.

 

[naslundfan19]

Baylor not on the bubble after the win over Kansas?

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

they took on a lot of bad losses before then, especially against Texas

most people said they would still be a long shot even with a win over Kansas

 

[Shanemansj13]

Yeah I still don't like Baylor either. Depends how they do in the Big 12 Tourney.

 

[Smart]

Yeah, even with the win, I don't see them moving up much. 18-13 just isn't a good enough record, especially win a ratio of 2 tourney wins to 3 bad losses. A win over OK State at the Big 12 tourney might put them on the bubble, but they aren't there yet.

 

[uncfan103]

Yeah, even with the win, I don't see them moving up much. 18-13 just isn't a good enough record, especially win a ratio of 2 tourney wins to 3 bad losses. A win over OK State at the Big 12 tourney might put them on the bubble, but they aren't there yet.

The win helped in the sense that they not only beat Kansas, but they also get a chance to play Oklahoma State. I don't think they have done enough to get in yet, but a win over Ok State would definitely help their argument. However, i dont understand how Kentuckys win over Florida moved them off the bubble but Baylors win didn't really do anything for them. I thought Kentucky and Baylor were in similar spots on the bubble, both on the outs.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I guess this Creighton-WitcHita St game doesn't matter bc both in. Bit it will get them better seeding.

Great game!

 

[Smart]

The win helped in the sense that they not only beat Kansas, but they also get a chance to play Oklahoma State. I don't think they have done enough to get in yet, but a win over Ok State would definitely help their argument. However, i dont understand how Kentuckys win over Florida moved them off the bubble but Baylors win didn't really do anything for them. I thought Kentucky and Baylor were in similar spots on the bubble, both on the outs.

Just to be clear, I never had Kenucky on the bubble. Despite what Lunardi may say, i've always had them in. It was debatable after the GA game, because they hadn't shown much without Noel, but the FL win gave the, that signature post-Noel win.

 

[herky]

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

yeah...Iowa is getting a bit if the run around

 

[herky]

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