Smart's Bubble Watch (3/9)

[Smart]

Posted Before Evening Games:

This will be my last one before my final predictions (which I should put out an hour or so before the Selection Show). This time, teams "On The Bubble" are ranked in order of where they stand.

Autobids:
UNC Asheville
Belmont
Murray State
Creighton
Montana
VCU
Detroit
Loyola (MD)
LIU Brooklyn
Lehigh
Davidson
Western Kentucky
St. Mary’s
Harvard

Locks (99%+):
Duke
North Carolina
Kansas
Missouri
Baylor
Syracuse
Marquette
Ohio State
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UNLV
Kentucky
Florida
Georgetown
Michigan
SDSU
Florida State
Gonzaga
Notre Dame
Louisville
Wichita State
New Mexico
California
Vanderbilt
Indiana
Iowa State
Virginia
Saint Louis
Kansas State
Cincy
Temple
Purdue
Memphis
Alabama (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%):
BYU

Most Likely In (60%-90%):
Texas
South Florida
Arizona
West Virginia
Drexel
UConn (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%):
NC State
Southern Miss
Xavier
Colorado State
Mississippi State
Long Beach State
------------------------------------- (Current Dividing Line)
Washington (-)
Miami
Northwestern (-)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%):
Seton Hall
Ole Miss
Tennessee (+)

All But Out (1%-10%):
Colorado
UCF
Iona
Oregon (--)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

Newly Done:
Oral Roberts (--)

Right now, I have:
14 Autobids
34 Locks
1 All But Locks
6 Most Likely In
9 Right On The Bubble
3 Most Likely Out
4 All But Out
(71 Teams)

It looks like there are going to be 6 or 8 more autobids not on my list. I guessed seven, meaning that I put the dividing line at 61 (as seen above).

 

[uncfan103]

Can you post some of the resumes? Id be interested in seeing Long Beach State, Drexel, Miami, and NC State. I think I heard NC State is 1-9 against RPI top 50 now. I think Northwestern is 1-10. If its too much trouble dont worry about it.

 

[Smart]

Here's an ESPN article from Tuesday that had the numbers from most of the bubble teams. I hate to use the RPI because I think it overvalues wins over mediocre teams (think a team like Mercer or Penn) which any real bubble team would beat. I also hate that margin of victory is ignored.

I have always used KenPom. It's harder to do now (no longer free), but there are a lot of good nuggets there and it gives a good ranking of all teams using computers. I look at wins and losses more than anything else. I hate losses by a lot of points (KenPom gets this). The tourney wants competitive opening round games, and when a team loses by 20+ points wenever they play an opponent that's equal to potential first round opponents, it looks really bad. RPI ignores this. I also care about momentum quite a bit, whereas all computer methods tend to ignore this.

 

[uncfan103]

Here's an ESPN article from Tuesday that had the numbers from most of the bubble teams. I hate to use the RPI because I think it overvalues wins over mediocre teams (think a team like Mercer or Penn) which any real bubble team would beat. I also hate that margin of victory is ignored.

I have always used KenPom. It's harder to do now (no longer free), but there are a lot of good nuggets there and it gives a good ranking of all teams using computers. I look at wins and losses more than anything else. I hate losses by a lot of points (KenPom gets this). The tourney wants competitive opening round games, and when a team loses by 20+ points wenever they play an opponent that's equal to potential first round opponents, it looks really bad. RPI ignores this. I also care about momentum quite a bit, whereas all computer methods tend to ignore this.

That was an interesting article, and i agree with a lot of your points. I chose Southern Miss and UConn from that article, and i dont think anyone from that last group deserves a bid. But, i think Drexel, USM, UConn, and BYU have the best resumes out of the ones in that article, and you have them all in, so im going to assume that your list is correct haha.

 

[The Crimson King]

You have the Pac12 champion out?

 

[BigBlueNation111]

Posted Before Evening Games:

This will be my last one before my final predictions (which I should put out an hour or so before the Selection Show). This time, teams "On The Bubble" are ranked in order of where they stand.

Autobids:
UNC Asheville
Belmont
Murray State
Creighton
Montana
VCU
Detroit
Loyola (MD)
LIU Brooklyn
Lehigh
Davidson
Western Kentucky
St. Mary’s
Harvard

Locks (99%+):
Duke
North Carolina
Kansas
Missouri
Baylor
Syracuse
Marquette
Ohio State
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UNLV
Kentucky
Florida
Georgetown
Michigan
SDSU
Florida State
Gonzaga
Notre Dame
Louisville
Wichita State
New Mexico
California
Vanderbilt
Indiana
Iowa State
Virginia
Saint Louis
Kansas State
Cincy
Temple
Purdue
Memphis
Alabama (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%):
BYU

Most Likely In (60%-90%):
Texas
South Florida
Arizona
West Virginia
Drexel
UConn (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%):
NC State
Southern Miss
Xavier
Colorado State
Mississippi State
Long Beach State
------------------------------------- (Current Dividing Line)
Washington (-)
Miami
Northwestern (-)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%):
Seton Hall
Ole Miss
Tennessee (+)

All But Out (1%-10%):
Colorado
UCF
Iona
Oregon (--)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

Newly Done:
Oral Roberts (--)

Right now, I have:
14 Autobids
34 Locks
1 All But Locks
6 Most Likely In
9 Right On The Bubble
3 Most Likely Out
4 All But Out
(71 Teams)

It looks like there are going to be 6 or 8 more autobids not on my list. I guessed seven, meaning that I put the dividing line at 61 (as seen above).

Nice work!!

 

[Smart]

You have the Pac12 champion out?

Yep. They are 66 in KenPom (lower than all the other bubble teams besides Colorado State and Southern Miss, and those two have better RPIs). They lack a great win, as their best wins are home wins over Pac-12 teams. The one thing they had going for them was that they had no losses to non-tourney teams, but that changed when they lost to Oregon State. They have three 18+ point losses, and they aren't playing well right now.

That said, they are the first team out right now. If chalk holds up in conference tourneys or one of the bubble teams takes a bad loss, they'll sneak in. I think there is a very good chance they wind up in the First Four.