Smart's Bubble Watch (3/5)

[Smart]

Locks (99%+) (35):
Saint Louis
Miami
Duke
NC State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Georgetown
Syracuse
Louisville
Notre Dame
Pitt
Indiana
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio State
Memphis
New Mexico
Colorado State
Arizona
Florida
Gonzaga
North Carolina
Marquette
Minnesota
UNLV
Oregon
Missouri
VCU (+)
Oklahoma (+)
Illinois (+)
UCLA (+)
Creighton (+)
Cal (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (7):
Butler
Iowa State
Wichita State
San Diego State
Cincinnati (+)
Colorado (+)
St. Mary’s (+)

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (4):
Ole Miss
Virginia
Kentucky (-)
La Salle (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (7):
Temple
Boise State
Iowa
Middle Tennessee
Villanova
Maryland
Tennessee (+)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (6):
Baylor
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Alabama
UMass
Akron (-)

All But Out (1%-10%) (6):
Arkansas
Davidson
Xavier
Belmont (-)
Arizona State (-)
LSU (-)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Valparaiso (-)
Air Force (-)
Bucknell (-)
Stephen F. Austin (-)
St. Johns (-)

 

[Smart]

Some Notes:

- In reality, the line is actually likely to wind up being between "Most Likely In" and "Right On The Bubble" if a standard number of conference tourney upsets happen.

- This week is the first week that I ranked the "Right On The Bubble" teams in order.

- There is a noticeable divide right between Boise State and Iowa. If one were to pick a natural place to separate the teams around the bubble, that would be it.

- Barring major upsets, the "All But Outs" should all be eliminated whenever I do the next Bubble Watch. Don't be surprised if the "Most Likely Outs" get eliminated as well. In general, this Bubble Watch is too polite, so most teams should get shifted downwards.

- The exception is the "All But Locks", most of which will be "Locks" on the next list provided they do not lay a complete egg.

- I noticed that two teams (UMass and Bama) somehow disappeared last week. If I accidentally deleted someone obvious, PLEASE let me know.

 

[ugafan6612]

I don't see how Tennessee could get in now

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

Iowa could win two in the B1G tourney and still get fucked

 

[uncfan103]

That Scott Drew screw up against Kansas State probably killed their chances. I played against one of them in HS and was hoping he would get in.

Also, has anyone seen this? It's very interesting. It shows who would be in the tournament if based strictly on BPI. Some of the teams that are left out and some that are in are pretty interesting.

I didn't know where else to include this so i chose the post about the bubble lol.

 

[Red_Alert]

All you folks on the bubble better hope someone other than Creighton or Wichita St doesn't win the MVC tournament.

With the tournament auto-bid that would be three from the MVC.

I don't see the committee taking three from the MVC but there are some here who think they will.

 

[uncfan103]

All you folks on the bubble better hope someone other than Creighton or Wichita St doesn't win the MVC tournament.

With the tournament auto-bid that would be three from the MVC.

I don't see the committee taking three from the MVC but there are some here who think they will.

I don't think the NCAA will care about how many teams from how many conferences get it. They have said in the past that the look at bubble teams individually and don't know how many teams from a conference get in until they have already picked the field.

I think Creighton and Wichita State are in. I doubt Wichita St. gets left out unless they lose first round of the tournament.

 

[Red_Alert]

What evs.

I'm just saying if someone like Illinois St., Bradley, etc..unexpectedly wins the MVC, everybody on the bubble slides down a knotch.

Heck, if both WSU and Creighton are in and one of those other teams makes it to the final, than WSU or CU should throw the game for the good of the conference.

 

[uncfan103]

What evs.

I'm just saying if someone like Illinois St., Bradley, etc..unexpectedly wins the MVC, everybody on the bubble slides down a knotch.

Heck, if both WSU and Creighton are in and one of those other teams makes it to the final, than WSU or CU should throw the game for the good of the conference.

Yeah, the bubble would definitely shrink a spot if they don't win. As far as throwing the game, there is definitely usually a lot more on the line for some teams rather than others. If Wichita State made it to the championship and decided to "rest" their players similar to what some other schools have done in the past it would benefit the conference. But, I think for a lot of teams winning the conference tournament is a goal.

 

[Red_Alert]

Only to those that are rarely the regular season champ.

The regular season championship is far more meaningful and what anyone remembers.

The tournaments are just money makers and on occasion give perenial losers something to brag about.

 

[uncfan103]

Only to those that are rarely the regular season champ.

The regular season championship is far more meaningful and what anyone remembers.

The tournaments are just money makers and on occasion give perenial losers something to brag about.

I agree that, in conferences where you don't need to win your tournament to get in like the MVC, the regular season championship is more important. But, I also don't think teams are going to give up to help other teams in their conference.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

What evs.

I'm just saying if someone like Illinois St., Bradley, etc..unexpectedly wins the MVC, everybody on the bubble slides down a knotch.

Heck, if both WSU and Creighton are in and one of those other teams makes it to the final, than WSU or CU should throw the game for the good of the conference.

they would never do that as it would effect their own seeding sir

 

[Red_Alert]

they would never do that as it would effect their own seeding sir

I was being facetious.

Although I'm pretty sure some teams don't play their hardest during conference tournaments.

 

[Red_Alert]

And it wouldn't effect their seeding too aweful much if it were the final.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

And it wouldn't effect their seeding too aweful much if it were the final.

depends on the team

a team like Creighton could put themselves in a much easier position by winning their conference tournament and being a 7 seed but if they were to lose in their conference championship they could fall to an 8 seed which would mean best case scenario they're playing a 1 seed next which is something they don't want

 

[uncfan103]

depends on the team

a team like Creighton could put themselves in a much easier position by winning their conference tournament and being a 7 seed but if they were to lose in their conference championship they could fall to an 8 seed which would mean best case scenario they're playing a 1 seed next which is something they don't want

Very true.

 

[Red_Alert]

Do you guys think a ref could be slipped some cash in order to get an "extra team" from a conference into the big dance?

 

[Shanemansj13]

See ya, UK!

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Kentucky and Virginia both took big hits tonight

 

[Shanemansj13]

Ohh...didnt see the end of Virginia game. Guessing they didn't come back. Harris had an off night.