Smart Bubble Watch (Final)

[Smart]

Autobids (32):
Harvard
Eastern Kentucky
Coastal Carolina
Wichita State
Mercer
Delaware
Manhattan
Wofford
Milwaukee
Mt. Saint Marys
North Dakota State
Gonzaga
American
Albany
Tulsa
Texas Southern
Western Michigan
North Carolina Central
UCLA
Louisville
New Mexico
Weber State
Stephen F. Austin
Providence
Iowa State
New Mexico State
(Big West)
(ACC- Duke*)
(Big Ten- Michigan*)
(Atlantic 10- VCU*)
(Sun Belt)
(SEC- Florida*)


Locks (99%+) (29):
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Syracuse
Virginia
Kansas
Texas
Creighton
Villanova
Michigan State
Iowa
Wisconsin
San Diego State
Arizona
Kentucky
UConn
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Pitt
SMU
Memphis
UMass
Kansas State
George Washington
Oregon (+)
Baylor (+)
Oklahoma State (+)
Colorado (++)
Stanford (++)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (4):
Nebraska (+)
St. Joe's (++)
Arizona State
Tennessee (+)

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (2):
Xavier
BYU

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (3):
Dayton
---------------------------------------------------------------
Minnesota
Southern Miss (+)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (1):
Cal (-)

All But Out (1%-10%) (5):
Arkansas (-)
Louisiana Tech
Florida State (-)
St. Johns (-)
Green Bay

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Utah (-)
Missouri (--)
Georgetown (-)
Georgia (-)

 

[Smart]

- Obviously, the asterisks haven't won yet. All of those games feature two locks, so it doesn't affect the bubble.

- While chaos reigned supreme in the lower tournaments, the bubble teams lucked out by getting mainly chalk. Providence was the only team below "On the Bubble" to win in a conference where a team had an autobid.

- As you may have figured out, my projected First Four teams are Tennessee, Xavier, BYU, and Dayton. My First Four Out are Minnesota, Southern Miss, Cal, and Arkansas.

- There seems to be a pretty clear cutoff between Dayton and Southern Miss/Minnesota for that last spot. I'd be pretty stunned if this didn't go at least 67/68. The more interesting question is those First Four spots. I wouldn't be stunned to see any of the seven non-locks get those games.

- I'm gonna be on a bus during most of tomorrow, but if it has Wifi, i'll try to get my projected seeds for each team up.

 

[tabascojet]

interesting that since providence won their tourney they cant be in the play in games so xavier most likely gets sent down....

 

[kramer1]

That's wacky that Dayton and Xavier could be playing in Dayton....against eachother!

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

I think you got it all right except SMU who you had as a lock. They were replaced by NC State who you did not have at all.

 

[kramer1]

I think you got it all right except SMU who you had as a lock. They were replaced by NC State who you did not have at all.

What a load of fucking bullshit!

 

[Smart]

I think you got it all right except SMU who you had as a lock. They were replaced by NC State who you did not have at all.

Yeah. There was a lot of talk of SMU missing the dance the last day or so. Before that, most outlets had them as a lock. They still went 12-6 in a conference that many consider to be very good. They were #31 in KenPom and had as many RPI top 50 wins (4) as RPI losses below 50. If I didn't stick so hard to the lock designation, I probably would have downloaded them to "All But In," but I just don't see how you can't include them. It's a big fuck-up by the committee.

I've talked about NC State a lot. The big knock on their resume was a lack of a big win. They beat Pitt and put themselves back on the bubble, but then Pitt went into freefall mode. NC State lucked out in the ACC tourney. Not only did they get that big win (over Cuse), but Pitt rehabilitated that quality win. I've seen some talk of NC State being in, but I still don't see it. The committee clearly valued momentum over the body of work, and that bothers me.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Pretty impressive job overall