Rizzo says he is here to stay

[herky]

Chicago Cubs prospect Anthony Rizzo said he's here to stay - ESPN Chicago

Rizzo's promotion Tuesday is the perfect storm for a fan base desperate for something to wrap its arms around. Forget the club's World Series drought, just the simple fact that the Cubs already are 23 games under .500 has created an anticipation for his arrival.

 

[GenJac]

I just read this big, long article on ESPN saying Anthony Rizzo is a superstar. Rizzo suddenly is "superstar"? I like your first baseman. Love the foundation established in 2014, but he's hardly a superstar just yet. Offensively we really should wait for him to drive in at least 80 runs in a season first. And while you love the power, we also need him to improve his clutch-hitting above his .241 RISP average last year, which is reflected in how last year the majority of his homers were solo (19 of 32). And on defense, he shows flashes of being a slick first baseman, but like most young players, he needs to cut down on the mental and physical errors.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

When someone puts up a 5+ WAR season at age 24, like Rizzo did last year, they are going to get called a superstar by several people. Rizzo hit HRs at a higher rate with runners on last year, 6.4%, than with the bases empty, 5.4%. He had a .788 OPS w/ RISP which is very good, yes the average was a bit low, but why would you pitch to him in that situation and he did chase more than he should have trying to make something happen. Is he a superstar? I wouldn't say yes, but he appears to be one in the making and could establish himself as one this year.

RBIs are a team stat so holding that against him is ridiculous. Rizzo hit more solo HRs because he had 120 more ABs with the bases empty than with runners on. It isn't his fault that the top of the lineup couldn't get on base. With Fowler on board his RBIs should improve. As for his defense you are going to be very hard up to find a better defensive 1B than Rizzo. Fangraphs' metrics rated him as the 3rd best full time 1B last year, defensively. Rizzo finished 10th in MVP voting at age 24 with no help from his team to rack up counting stats, RBIs and Runs, for a reason. He is already a great player and is just about to enter his prime. Is there really a 1B you'd rather have for your team than Rizzo? I could see a strong argument for Goldschmidt, but I'd rather have the younger Rizzo. Rizzo is a star and while it might be a bit premature to call him a superstar he is on that path even if he does nothing but repeat his .286/.386/.527 line the next few years. When you are 7th in baseball in OPS with a 5+ WAR season at 24 you are in the conversation for being a superstar. Mike Trout was still a rookie, with no track record, when he first started getting called a superstar.

 

[anotheridiot]

there are rumblings that San Diego is asking about Starlin Castro and Theo thinks Russell is ready. Almost seems like this is more to help fans start forgetting about mr waiting for trouble Castro that has problems with the routine plays and cant find a good spot in the lineup..

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Moving Castro is something that could happen, but probably not until the off-season. If Schwarber can stick at catcher, which I still do not believe is likely, then Bryant can go to LF, Castro to 3B, Russell at SS and Baez/LeStella/Alcantara/etc at 2B. However, if Schwarber has to play LF then Bryant stays at 3B and Russell takes over SS then Castro can be moved with the list of options at 2B along with others coming up through the system. They are going to find a way to have both Schwarber and Bryant in the lineup for the bats. If Schwarber ends up in LF then I would expect Castro to be moved.

However, even if the Cubs were willing to trade Castro today and bring up both Russell and Bryant in two weeks they would not move Castro to the Padres. The Padres just simply do not have anything to make it worth trading Castro for. Castro won't get moved because he is a bad player. It will because of the talent the Cubs have accumulated and the return he will bring. A lot of people get upset thinking that supporting the idea of trading Castro means you don't think he is good. He is very good. He is a 3-3.5 WAR player every year. Every skill he has is inferior to Addison Russell which is why Russell will not only be the better defensive SS, but better player. Over the last 12 months there have been some prospect rankings that had Russell as the best prospect in the game over Bryant. If they both come up and perform and Schwarber continues to hits and needs LF next season then you move Castro because it can make your team better. The package to get Castro has to include something significant that makes your team better like a big time starter under team control or an established 2B or CF under team control.

 

[anotheridiot]

Well if you are gonna get an established 2Bman, then Baez can go along with him. They just brought Fowler in so I dont think they are looking for an established CF'er, its almost blocking Almora too much.

Honestly, I did not understand any of the outfielder deals over the winter with the talent we have ready or close to ready that will end up out in a corner. Its really not impossible for me to picture an outfield of Scharber in left, Soler in center and Bryant in right. Soler played most of his ball in center field and the trouble he has out there seems to be the balls hooking on him in right. They are more straight at him in center or definitely going one way or the other. You could be looking at 125 home runs from your outfield.

I can see Sweeney and Denorfia as guys to move in June, but Fowler seems to be a longer term commitment.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Fowler is a FA after the season and was very much a stopgap move. Almora really struggled in AA last year, .234/.250/.355. Almora has to hit in AA and move up before we can even think of him being blocked by anyone. Soler isn't going to CF. Soler has above average range for CF, but that translates to below average range in CF and you really aren't putting him out there with Schwarber and Bryant in LF and RF where the OF would have huge holes in the gaps that no one could get to.

Ideally, Almora advances through AA and AAA with Schwarber this year and next year both come up around 3 weeks into the season. Schwarber as a catcher and Almora in CF. I'm not sure Almora will advance that fast. It also isn't outside of the realm of possibility that they convert Castro, or Baez, to CF. Castro would have the range and has shown an ability to track balls in the air. Again, that would assume Almora struggles. If they add an established 2B it will be because Baez struggles in his 2nd big league stint later this year and they don't see him cutting down the Ks to a point they want to live with. Which is possible, although I've been as high as anyone on Baez and I hope he clicks this year.