Projection Time for 2017

[mcnabb7542]

I know it's still early, and the majority will say let's see after June.
But let's roll the dice and see what folks are thinking....

 

[NWinAZ]

I say they win 89 games and just miss out. Pitching will come back to bite us. We just can't put out a complete team even when they say they are going for it.

 

[Tapey]

Missing it by 2 is the mariner thing to do

 

[JMR]

I say playoffs. Last year was a good start to the new regime. 10 games over .500 despite being without our ace for around a month and having to use something like 13 starting pitchers throughout the season due to various injuries. The rotation may not be dominant, but I think they have a reasonable expectation to chew up some innings and keep us in the game long enough to give the offense a chance to win it. The bullpen looks to be pretty tough and I think the other adds such as Haniger, Segura, and Dyson will be enough to get the team over the hump and finally back to the playoffs.

 

[mcnabb7542]

Early lead for the playoffs so far.....

They sure are saying all the right things about taken the next step.
Pitching (rotation wise) has me concern as well..

 

[unlvmariners]

Make the playoffs...

My concerns are mainly the quality of the starting 5, do they stay healthy? Does Paxton make than next step? Do the guys coming off down years bounce back? I think that the depth beyond the starting 5 ended up being pretty good at first it was looking like Dipoto was going to forget about the depth again. All in all I think the pitching could end up in the middle of the pack.

The offense has the potential to be one of the better ones in the league. Adding some speed to the lineup was a welcome addition to the team. They should be more active on the bases this season.

 

[wazzu31]

I say playoffs on the assumption that Safeco Field isn't going to be a bandbox again this summer. The offense and defense should be good enough at home to cover up any short comings the pitching staff has. I say they make it to the ALDS.

 

[PolarVortex]

I know it's still early, and the majority will say let's see after June.
But let's roll the dice and see what folks are thinking....

I still remember the 2004 season, when the Mariners waited too long to bring in younger talent and the team got old overnight. That could happen again this year. The offense relies so much on Cruz and Cano, and those are getting up there. I don't think it will happen this year, but, the possibility lingers.

So if Cruz and Cano can provide another 200 RBIs between them, then I think the team will be okay. Starting pitching is going to be a wild card. Safeco suddenly isn't a pitcher's park anymore. Hernandez isn't aging well. Iwakuma can no longer stay effective over a 162 game schedule. Paxton is a brittle bitch. Gallardo is about three years past his prime. Smyly is not as good as Ariel Miranda but for some dumbass reason, he's getting a rotation spot.

If this team hits on all cylinders, they are a 90-win playoff team. But I don't think they will hit on all cylinders.

Sorry for the glass half empty, pessimistic prognosis.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

All depends on health of pitching. If those guys stay healthy, I say we get in.

If not it'll be another season similar to last year. Asking Cano/Cruz to have ANOTHER season like they did is a lot, considering both had amazing years. Maybe an extra 3 wins or so. I do think we'll be one of the better offenses in the league, though. We were already pretty good last year.

 

[unlvmariners]

I still remember the 2004 season, when the Mariners waited too long to bring in younger talent and the team got old overnight. That could happen again this year. The offense relies so much on Cruz and Cano, and those are getting up there. I don't think it will happen this year, but, the possibility lingers.

So if Cruz and Cano can provide another 200 RBIs between them, then I think the team will be okay. Starting pitching is going to be a wild card. Safeco suddenly isn't a pitcher's park anymore. Hernandez isn't aging well. Iwakuma can no longer stay effective over a 162 game schedule. Paxton is a brittle bitch. Gallardo is about three years past his prime. Smyly is not as good as Ariel Miranda but for some dumbass reason, he's getting a rotation spot.

If this team hits on all cylinders, they are a 90-win playoff team. But I don't think they will hit on all cylinders.

Sorry for the glass half empty, pessimistic prognosis.

Fair assessment, can't really disagree, I just have a more optimistic take on this team than I usually do.. Personally I'm not worried about the offense, and I am not expecting Cruz or Cano to put up the numbers they did last season, if they do great if they don't I don't think its a killer as long as they are near their career numbers. The offense has a better supporting cast than it did last year imo and a little more versatile and less reliant on the long ball.

The pitching is were I have the most concern, I also think we have better in house rotation replacement options than we did last season. The question will be if the offense can offset some of the weaknesses in the pitching.

 

[JMR]

I still remember the 2004 season, when the Mariners waited too long to bring in younger talent and the team got old overnight. That could happen again this year. The offense relies so much on Cruz and Cano, and those are getting up there. I don't think it will happen this year, but, the possibility lingers.

So if Cruz and Cano can provide another 200 RBIs between them, then I think the team will be okay. Starting pitching is going to be a wild card. Safeco suddenly isn't a pitcher's park anymore. Hernandez isn't aging well. Iwakuma can no longer stay effective over a 162 game schedule. Paxton is a brittle bitch. Gallardo is about three years past his prime. Smyly is not as good as Ariel Miranda but for some dumbass reason, he's getting a rotation spot.

If this team hits on all cylinders, they are a 90-win playoff team. But I don't think they will hit on all cylinders.

Sorry for the glass half empty, pessimistic prognosis.

By no means is this team a lock for the post season, but I think you're short-changing Kyle Seager's role as well as a few of the seemingly good moves DiPoto has made this winter to boost the O. Segura had 20 bombs and led the NL in hits last year. Anywhere close to that this year is a huge upgrade at the plate over what we had from Marte. Just about everyone has glowing reviews of Haniger too. Dyson should also help set the table better than anyone we had leading off last season. A full year of Zunino probably means 20+ HRs (I am not expecting him to hit any higher than .240, however). Martin also gave some pop with speed on the bases. The 4th outfielder spot is probably going to be a lot stronger this season as well. Not the '27 Yankees or anything, but I think this lineup will prove to be a lot more than just the Cano & Cruz show.

As far as Safeco "no longer" a pitcher's park, I guess we'll have to see if 2016 was just a statistical outlier or the new normal. I think the spike in HRs given up at home (+28 over '15, +61 over '14, and +36 over '13) says more about our pitching than the ballpark itself. I know the fences came in about 5' a few years back, so that obviously is a factor as well. Not sure if we are to the point where we can expect opponents to hit 110+ HRs a year at our place, however.

 

[dude82]

I voted for the playoffs.

I think the offense, on paper, is the most balanced lineup we've had in years and the battles for the utility spots are actual battles and not just going to the best AAAA player we have in the infield/outfield or a last minute trade acquisition. The key there will be whether or not Servais lets the speed guys do their thing for the entire season. He said last year at about this time that he wanted to run last season, but I don't think we necessarily had the guys on the roster last year to make that happen as much as he wanted it to happen. I think we have those guys this year.

The bullpen could be anything from great to a dumpster fire. Honestly, bullpens in general are such a wildcard every year that it's difficult to predict what you're going to get out of it, especially in early March. The organizational depth with our starting pitching wasn't really there last year like it appears to be this year. That's going to be another wait-and-see thing like the bullpen, but I think that was one of Dipoto's main focuses this offseason, so I'd be surprised if it wasn't better than last year. Hopefully we won't have to test it as often as we had to last year.

Finally, I think we're going to have a much better defense than we had last year. We have a whole slew of outfielders who can cover a lot of ground, we have a more established player at shortstop and I believe that Seager's defense at third will improve over last year. For one thing, he's a player who analyzes the flaws in his game from the previous season and works hard to fix them in the offseason. I think the only way his error total comes close to where it was last season is if the first basemen fail to dig out or stretch for many of his throws that aren't right to them. Honestly, first base is my biggest question mark on defense (at least when Nelson Cruz isn't playing right field) this year. Vogelbach's flexibility and range has apparently improved since late last season, but he's still not going to be mistaken for a yoga instructor over there, so some throws that a more experienced, more flexible first baseman would scoop/reach might turn into errors when Vogelbach is playing there.

I think this is the year we see 15 years of frustration go out the window and we make the playoffs. How far we go once we get there depends on a number of things, but I think we'll be playing beyond the 1st of October.

 

[wazzu31]

As far as Safeco "no longer" a pitcher's park, I guess we'll have to see if 2016 was just a statistical outlier or the new normal. I think the spike in HRs given up at home (+28 over '15, +61 over '14, and +36 over '13) says more about our pitching than the ballpark itself. I know the fences came in about 5' a few years back, so that obviously is a factor as well. Not sure if we are to the point where we can expect opponents to hit 110+ HRs a year at our place, however.

Everything I read up on was a huge contributor to it's pitcher friendliness was an abnormally hot and dry spring and summer in Seattle last year. This year it is suppose to be one of the wetest spring and summer in years for the area.

 

[Destroydacre]

I think the Mariners will finish anywhere between .500 and just missing the playoffs. My worry over the last several years has been when the offense is finally good enough to get the M's to the playoffs that's when the pitching will fall off and it looks like that very well could happen. I know ST games and stats are meaningless, that said several of the starters are not inspiring hope right now. I do think offensively this will be the best team the Mariners have fielded in a long time.

 

[JMR]

Everything I read up on was a huge contributor to it's pitcher friendliness was an abnormally hot and dry spring and summer in Seattle last year. This year it is suppose to be one of the wetest spring and summer in years for the area.

If this spring & summer are wetter than normal, we may break some sort of annual record here with the way this winter has been.

 

[NWinAZ]

Everything I read up on was a huge contributor to it's pitcher friendliness was an abnormally hot and dry spring and summer in Seattle last year. This year it is suppose to be one of the wetest spring and summer in years for the area.

Interesting. So does that mean the marine(r) layer is back? That really is a possible difference maker and one that could actually help us since we have added speed over power.

 

[wazzu31]

I guess I should have prefaced it with I heard this segment on the radio about the weather last year versus predicted weather this year...but it's the same weathermen/women who predicted Armageddon with that wind storm that never happened.

 

[PolarVortex]

Interesting. So does that mean the marine(r) layer is back? That really is a possible difference maker and one that could actually help us since we have added speed over power.

King Felix was definitely hurt by the alleged absence of the marine layer. His 3.93 home ERA was the worst of his career. It was even higher than his home ERA in 2006 when his overall ERA was 4.52.

But on the flip side, Cano actually posted his lowest home OPS of the three years he has played here. His OPS home/road splits were .802/.962.

So, for me, it's a hard sell that the Marine layer was less of a factor last year than in previous years. It's easier for me to believe that the baseball was juiced last year.

 

[NWinAZ]

King Felix was definitely hurt by the alleged absence of the marine layer. His 3.93 home ERA was the worst of his career. It was even higher than his home ERA in 2006 when his overall ERA was 4.52.

But on the flip side, Cano actually posted his lowest home OPS of the three years he has played here. His OPS home/road splits were .802/.962.

So, for me, it's a hard sell that the Marine layer was less of a factor last year than in previous years. It's easier for me to believe that the baseball was juiced last year.

I really have no idea on this. It seems like a convenient excuse when we aren't scoring runs like in the past but I just don't know.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I think we have a good team, a team that is better than last year. But, Cano, Cruz and Seager all had career years. It is hard to reasonably expect guys like Cano and Cruz to reproduce the years they had last year considering their age. That being said, I expect a similar year to last year. We will either make the playoffs by a very, very slim margin, or miss out by just as slim of a margin.