Predicting the results of every NFL team's boldest offseason move

[iowajerms]

Part 1 of 4

Predicting whether 32 bold offseason moves will hit or miss
By Mike Sando

Arizona Cardinals

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The move: Letting both starting safeties depart in free agency

Prediction: The Cardinals' defense will have a harder time covering for Calais Campbell's departure. Arizona, third in defensive expected points added (EPA) last season, will not finish among the top 10 this season. But with the special teams avoiding a repeat of its 2016 implosion, the Cardinals' win-loss record could improve anyway.

Atlanta Falcons

The move: Hiring first-time NFL coordinators

Prediction: The defense will continue to improve with Marquand Manuel calling plays and Dan Quinn providing insurance, but the offense will become more predictable (as one evaluator noted, Kyle Shanahan possessed an uncanny feel for keeping defenses off balance) with Steve Sarkisian in place. After finishing with seven interceptions last season, Matt Ryan will come closer to throwing 14, which was near his average during the previous five seasons.

Baltimore Ravens

The move: Standing pat at wide receiver through most of the offseason

Prediction: This move worked out better than anticipated when Jeremy Maclin became available and signed with the Ravens, but the Ravens will still finish 2017 a distant third in the AFC North when it comes to offensive weaponry. Baltimore will use a 2018 first-round pick for a receiver if the value is right.

Buffalo Bills

The move: Declining WR Sammy Watkins' fifth-year option

Prediction: Watkins will emerge from this season as a candidate to sign the type of deal Alshon Jeffery received from the Eagles, most likely with a different team. The Bills' current leadership will not flinch in making a clean break from the player most associated with the previous regime.

Carolina Panthers

The move: Firing GM Dave Gettleman

Prediction: Owner Jerry Richardson will remove the "interim" label from Marty Hurney's title. The unspoken implication will be that Gettleman is primarily to blame for what still could be a disappointing 2017 season.

Chicago Bears

The move: Trading up for QB Mitch Trubisky after signing QB Mike Glennon

Prediction: With a weak roster around them, neither Trubisky not Glennon will play well enough for Bears ownership to keep coach John Fox beyond 2017. Trubisky will start fresh with a new system in 2018, setting back his development in the short term.

Cincinnati Bengals

The move: Using first two draft choices for boom-or-bust prospects

Prediction: First-round pick John Ross and second-rounder Joe Mixon will do enough as rookies for the Bengals' offense to finish among the NFL's top 10 by meaningful measures (this feels like one of my riskier predictions, but with three years having passed since Mixon's horrific assault against a woman, the incident does not appear to be part of a pattern).

Cleveland Browns

The move: Letting the draft's first round pass without selecting a QB

Prediction: DeShone Kizer will show flashes of promise in an offense geared around the running game, but when the season ends, Cleveland will rank 23rd or worse in Total QBR for the fifth time in the past six seasons. The team will use a 2018 first-round pick for a QB.

 

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Part 2 of 4

Dallas Cowboys

The move: Holding the door open while defensive backs Morris Claiborne, Brandon Carr, Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox exited

Prediction: It won't always be pretty, but defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli will work his magic again, allowing the Cowboys' defense to outperform its personnel -- with an assist from an offense that controls the ball and puts enough points on the board.

Denver Broncos

The move: Letting defensive coordinator Wade Phillips leave

Prediction: Denver will again field a top-five defense on the strength of the personnel and sufficient staff continuity. Bill Kollar's value as defensive line coach will remain underappreciated.

Detroit Lions

The move: Standing pat at running back

Prediction: Ameer Abdullah will again look fantastic when available, particularly with an upgraded offensive line. However, poor depth at running back will cost the Lions once again, leading the team to funnel more resources into the position in 2018.

Green Bay Packers

The move: Betting on in-house replacements at guard

Prediction: The sky will reportedly be falling at some point during the season, with GM Ted Thompson taking heat for letting T.J. Lang and others depart without a care, but Aaron Rodgers will have the Packers back atop the NFC North once again, and with a top-five offense.

Houston Texans

The move: Trading up to draft Deshaun Watson

Prediction: Injury and/or performance will drive Tom Savage from the starting lineup before November. Watson will lead all rookie qualifiers in Total QBR, strengthening my contention that he was the most underappreciated QB in the 2017 draft.

Indianapolis Colts

The move: Standing pat on right side of offensive line

Prediction: The right side of the offensive line will remain a problem -- as it probably would have even if Indy had thrown money at the position in free agency -- but the Colts will compensate with a higher number of short passes.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The move: Not lining up an alternative to Blake Bortles

Prediction: An improved defense and an increasingly run-oriented offense will help Bortles' efficiency improve -- think Jay Cutler in 2015, if all goes well -- but an honest assessment will finally force the Jaguars to pursue another starter next offseason.

Kansas City Chiefs

The move: Trading up for Patrick Mahomes II

Prediction: The draft capital Kansas City spent to get Mahomes means the Chiefs will lose ground to New England, Pittsburgh and its AFC West rivals, putting additional pressure on Mahomes to make up the difference in 2018 and beyond.

 

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Part 3 of 4

Los Angeles Chargers


The move: Hiring surprise candidate Anthony Lynn as head coach

Prediction: The Chargers will become a more accountable team under Lynn through the force of his leadership. This will be difficult to quantify in most cases, but fans will notice Philip Rivers throwing fewer interceptions (Rivers leads the NFL in INTs over the past three seasons).

Los Angeles Rams

The move: Hiring a 31-year-old head coach

Prediction: Sean McVay will dramatically improve the Rams' offensive scheming. His departure from Washington will hurt the Redskins in that regard. However, the improvements in Los Angeles will not be sufficient for Jared Goff to prove he's the team's QB of the future.

Miami Dolphins

The move: Betting on Jay Ajayi at running back

Prediction: The Dolphins will wish they had done more to address the depth behind Ajayi. The medical red flags that followed Ajayi into the NFL might have been overblown at the time, but they were not meaningless.

Minnesota Vikings

The move: Betting big on Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers

Prediction: The Vikings' offensive line will be only marginally better than it was last season, leaving quarterback Sam Bradford in much the same predicament, albeit within a system with which he could be more comfortable.

New England Patriots

The move: Holding on to backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Prediction: The Patriots will hold on to Garoppolo as long as they can, possibly even working out a bridge contract with him. The plan changes if another team becomes sufficiently desperate at QB before the trading deadline.

New Orleans Saints

The move: Trading away top deep threat Brandin Cooks

Prediction: While Cooks will look very good in New England, Drew Brees will still look very good in New Orleans, because that is what Brees does, almost regardless of the personnel at wide receiver. However, the Saints' defense will not improve enough for the team to contend for its second championship in the Brees era.

New York Giants

The move: Adding WR Brandon Marshall to the mix with WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Prediction: The Giants will win the NFC East as Eli Manning finally has a big receiver he can trust, and Marshall finally has a QB he can trust. Note that Marshall's 941 career receptions came from Jay Cutler (445), Ryan Fitzpatrick (148), Kyle Orton (100), Chad Henne (96), Matt Moore (63), Josh McCown (36), Bryce Petty (11) and ... you get the point.

New York Jets


The move: Drafting two safeties early, but no quarterback

Prediction: An injury to Josh McCown will send Christian Hackenberg into the lineup, and the Jets will emerge from this season with a mandate to draft a QB early in 2018. The team's current leadership will need some luck to buy another year.

 

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Part 4 of 4

Oakland Raiders

The move: Adding RB Marshawn Lynch after Lynch sat out a season

Prediction: Lynch will be a positive factor on the field when healthy, but staying on the field will be increasingly difficult for him after a year away, and his outsize influence in a young locker room will be something for the coaching staff to manage if the team struggles.

Philadelphia Eagles

The move: Acquiring WR Alshon Jeffery and WR Torrey Smith

Prediction: Jeffery and Smith will help second-year QB Carson Wentz enjoy a dramatic improvement in statistical production, but it could be debatable ultimately whether Wentz would have realized most of the gains regardless.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The move: Resisting a long-term deal for RB Le'Veon Bell

Prediction: Bell will remain one of the NFL's top backs, but the Steelers will resist meeting his demands to be paid as a trendsetting RB-WR hybrid player, based on availability. Forty backs have played more games than Bell has played since he entered the league, and the fact that Bell has been a suspension risk complicates things.

San Francisco 49ers

The move: Not making a meaningful long-term move at QB

Prediction: Brian Hoyer will exceed expectations with a boost from Kyle Shanahan's offense and playcalling. However, the 49ers will be in position to draft one of the top QBs in 2018, and that will be their plan.

Seattle Seahawks

The move: Publicly acknowledging that Richard Sherman could be traded

Prediction: Sherman will remain the best corner on the team in 2017. He will be less apt to make waves the way he did last season, when he publicly criticized the offensive playcalling and threatened to ruin a reporter's career. However, the team will look to move on from him in the next couple years, if in better position to do so.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The move: Acquiring WR DeSean Jackson

Prediction: Jackson will make the Buccaneers' offense more explosive while taking pressure off Mike Evans. The focus in 2018 will then shift toward modifying QB Jameis Winston's aggressive mentality, which will remain a double-edged sword.

Tennessee Titans

The move: Going with Matt Cassel as the No. 2 QB despite injury concerns for Marcus Mariota

Prediction: The Titans will regret not having a better fallback option at QB. They have become a more competitive team, which means the stakes are higher for them if they are forced to play with their backup. Mariota is coming off a serious injury that could inhibit his athleticism this season. He has also been somewhat injury prone. Whatever Cassel provides in the meeting room isn't going to help if he's forced into the lineup.

Washington Redskins

The move: Not finding a way to improve relations with QB Kirk Cousins

Prediction: Cousins' stats will suffer some in 2017 after the team lost coordinator McVay and key receivers, making it somewhat easier for the team to spin the situation when Cousins leaves as a free agent next offseason.