Pedro Alvarez

[thecrow124]

To me he reeks of Mike Pagliarulo and as such he needs to be traded ASAP. This is not just my typical hatred of Pedro, historically players that hit for lots of power, no average, don't walk, and strike out a lot tend to peak at age 26 or 27 and then they fall off the face of the earth.

We are on borrowed time with him right now, send him somewhere and get what you can for him.

 

[element1286]

I really don't see the urgency, I understand doing it if it's a good baseball trade.

 

[thecrow124]

I really don't see the urgency, I understand doing it if it's a good baseball trade.

Because I really don't think he will be a useful baseball player this season, or any season after this one. Look at other player like him and you will find that their careers peak early, like age 26, and then more or less end. There is no slight decline, they just fall off the face of the earth. If he iw not hitting 30 homeruns then he has no value at all.

 

[element1286]

Because I really don't think he will be a useful baseball player this season, or any season after this one. Look at other player like him and you will find that their careers peak early, like age 26, and then more or less end. There is no slight decline, they just fall off the face of the earth. If he iw not hitting 30 homeruns then he has no value at all.

Who exactly are you looking at? I just took a look at Pedro's 'Similar Batters through 26" at baseball reference it's a mixed bag. Some guys completely fell apart, some guys held it together and were productive into their early 30s.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Not a pirate fan, but i will put in my 2 cents... who else do you have that is a true threat for HRs... it is nice to have one... especially if you bring up gregory polanco at any point this season, you will have an OF of all speed guys!!!

 

[element1286]

Not a pirate fan, but i will put in my 2 cents... who else do you have that is a true threat for HRs... it is nice to have one... especially if you bring up gregory polanco at any point this season, you will have an OF of all speed guys!!!

No one. I'm definitely not in favor of locking him up long term, I'd like to keep Pedro through a few arb years, and either trade him then or just let him walk. I doubt he'll ever be a star, more of a 2-3 win player, and most likely his best years are going to be before he turns 30.

 

[thehobocop]

I wouldn't be against trading Pedro, but I wouldn't trade him for something of lesser value just to get rid of him either.

 

[Illinest]

He is the NL homerun champion. This isn't 1998 anymore and power hitters are generally less productive than most of us are used to.

I would not be at all surprised if he goes downhill before he turns 30 but at the same time he's not a statistic and his fate will depend on a set of circumstances that belong to him alone. Unlike other flawed hitters - garret jones is a recent example - pedro does not consistently get beat by any particular pitch. He does consistently struggle with breaking balls in a general sense but he has made adjustments to counter every strategy that has been employed against him so far. Every time he adjusts he becomes the best hitter in baseball for a few weeks.

Now he may continue this pattern throughout his career, so I'm not suggesting that the best is yet to come or anything of that nature, but to me he fits the profile of an intellectual hitter who also has light-tower power. If he develops a better feel for how each pitcher is going to pitch to him then he may be the kind of guy who improves as he ages. He can sacrifice some distance if he gets better at making contact, and I don't think he's ever been a reflex hitter so I don't know if slowing down a little bit is really going to change his approach too much.

All that said - I'd take a lopsided trade if one were offered. It would have to be pretty good though. He's still very risky and we still need lots of talent, plus I am skeptical about ownership paying him anyways.

 

[thecrow124]

There is an article at HiddenVigorish about Pedro and their projections for him. They are fairly kind to him IMO, but it talks about what I am trying to say here......basically Bill James would say Pedro has "old player skills".

 

[thehobocop]

The other problem with this idea is that if you can predict a downward trend with Pedro then who's to say that the rest of the league can't as well? If the rest of the league is predicting this similar downward trend, the return you would get for Pedro would probably be next to nothing. Assuming this is true, I'd rather stick with Pedro and keep the chance to have a 30+ homer guy with average to above average defense at third rather than maybe a couple of B grade prospects that may or may not pan out.

 

[thecrow124]

The other problem with this idea is that if you can predict a downward trend with Pedro then who's to say that the rest of the league can't as well? If the rest of the league is predicting this similar downward trend, the return you would get for Pedro would probably be next to nothing. Assuming this is true, I'd rather stick with Pedro and keep the chance to have a 30+ homer guy with average to above average defense at third rather than maybe a couple of B grade prospects that may or may not pan out.

The problem with that line of thinking is that his most comperable player over the last 2 seasons from an offensive standpoint got two grade A prospects in return in trade. Pedro should easily be able to get that in return. I am of the mind that it is better to trade a guy a year to early than a year to late.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

The problem with that line of thinking is that his most comperable player over the last 2 seasons from an offensive standpoint got two grade A prospects in return in trade. Pedro should easily be able to get that in return. I am of the mind that it is better to trade a guy a year to early than a year to late.

That is such a cliche and it is unrealistic... The scenario for the cliche to be true is:

1. You get good value for the player
2. the player leaving doesnt hurt your season...

Right now Pedro is your best and only real power source... Unless you get a lot for him(more than his value), i think Pittsburgh would be significantly worse without him... You hinted on the Trumbo trade... If i was pittsburgh, just getting a pitcher(skaags) would not be enough even if the pitcher has more value... Its about what the team needs...

I will counter your cliche with I would rather trade a player a year to late if he is going to help me win than trade a player too soon and be worse for it...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

also, the reason that players like alvarez usually decline is because they lose consistant at bats... the reason they lose consistant at bats is because they generally are terrible defenders(Carlos Pena is an exception-sure there are many more)...

 

[thehobocop]

The problem with that line of thinking is that his most comperable player over the last 2 seasons from an offensive standpoint got two grade A prospects in return in trade. Pedro should easily be able to get that in return. I am of the mind that it is better to trade a guy a year to early than a year to late.

And what player was this?

 

[thecrow124]

And what player was this?

Trumbo

 

[thecrow124]

also, the reason that players like alvarez usually decline is because they lose consistant at bats... the reason they lose consistant at bats is because they generally are terrible defenders(Carlos Pena is an exception-sure there are many more)...

No, the reason players like Pedro decline is because their bat speed starts to slow down. He has a very long slow swing to begin with, so even minimal decreases in that bat speed will create an even bigger hole in his swing. I also don't know if you have watched the Pirates or not, but Pedro would also fit the terrible defender category. Last year he was slightly above average, but that comes with the disclaimer that he was shifted all over the field. He is also only effective offensively against RHP, and should platooned with any RH batter on our roster against lefties, if the Pirates were to do this, it would essentially do the same thing by decreasing his AB's. Carlos Pena is also not the player I described for the simple fact that he has much better strike zone discipline as attested to by his ability to walk, Pedro meanwhile has seem his walk % decrease every year he has been in the major leagues, and his strike zone management has also regressed each year.

I just thin this time next year we are going to be very disappointed with Pedro because no one right now can get past the fact that he is a "huge power threat". I have a feeling that we could possibly be trying to decide next offseason if Pedro just had one bad season, or if his offensive game has fallen off the cliff.

I do understand that he isn't going to be traded, but I also believe that that is a mistake. There are still gm's out there that equate HR's to power and would be willing to give up talented baseball players for Pedro's "power".

 

[element1286]

He's not terrible, Miguel Cabrera is a terrible third basemen, Pedro is magnitudes better than terrible. He can look terrible at times, but can look very good at times too.

 

[steelparrot]

I know Pedro is a Boras client and will cash out if he keeps going, but I say keep him through his first 2 arb years at least, then we can see where we are as a team.


Even with little help from the minors, we have a window to compete for a long time, and we have the best farm system in the game according to BA.

 

[sychmd]

pedro makes awesome plays at third base, and his arm is very strong, he charges well and his backhand range is good.
he is sometimes erratic on easy plays. is that maturity or concentration or lack of consistency ..... not sure.
he has the skills to be a way above average 3B. 65-75 on the 20-80 scout scale.

hittiing, pedro is getting it more and more. if he would trust his power to all fields and not try to pull everything. classic step to the pitcher and drive the over the plate stuff up the middle and the outside stuff to left. take a slightly shorter swing and he is fine.
his weight to often is leaning toward first when he swings and not leaning toward the pitcher.

he was more disciplined as the year went on and the pressure was really on. the playoffs was a highlight reel for pedro.

i say keep him and see what happens to his growth curve 1-2 more years, then decide. we are still contenders, so we don't have replacements for him and won't get MLB people for him most likely unless someone swaps a 2B or 1B for him. if you get a mob player, you will get one with the same potential upside and holes as pedro. if you trade 2 for one, we need to give up a prospect for something better than pedro (worth considering) or get 2 prospects each lesser than pedro in the near (1-3 year) future. not a help for 14 or 15.

i think it is important for the team and the fan base for the team to stay even or move forward this year, not to go into rebuilding phase and regress for 1-2 years. the only way that scenario is acceptable is if we get injury curse or we trade older players for some amazing stockpile of 1-2 year ready prospects to be a major power when all our people are ready to bust it.

 

[steelparrot]

Not a pirate fan, but i will put in my 2 cents... who else do you have that is a true threat for HRs... it is nice to have one... especially if you bring up gregory polanco at any point this season, you will have an OF of all speed guys!!!

That will be awesome


Imo, Our outfield defense/speed is what gives us a really good home field advantage.

Bring a meh defensive CF and a no speed power hitter in left into PNC and you are gonna have a hard time winning.