• Have something to say? Register Now! and be posting in minutes!

Pac 12 basketball

ericd7633

Well-Known Member
18,113
3,145
293
Joined
Jul 14, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 11,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
The B4A might be pretty interesting. Purdue, W. Kentucky, SMU, N. Iowa, Tennessee, NC State and some others are all playing, so we'll see.

Looks like AZ's non-con for next year in addition to the B4A will be NAU, UMBC, CSU Bakersfield, LBSU, @UNLV, TAMU (Neutral site in PHX after last year's neutral site in Houston), Bama, @UNM, NDSU, and UCONN. If AZ can play Nova and some other quality teams in the B4A it should shape up as a decent OOC. Not very many ranked teams but hopefully a bunch of top 50s in there.

As far as the Pac is concerned, I'm hoping for more than a 4-bid conference, but we'll see. I think AZ only plays the Socal schools once this season, and in McKale.

I think our H&H with the Zags starts up again in 2018.

That is a really strong field for the B4A. Purdue, WKU and SMU should all be tournament teams next season along with obviously Zona and Nova. And Tennessee/N.Iowa should be much improved. N Iowa is probably the favorites to win the MVC.

I really like the rest of the schedule for Zona. Sets up well to have a really good Non Conf. SOS. When looking at an OOC schedule I always look for the "gimme games" such as an NAU, UMBC, CSU Bakersfield, LBSU, NDSU. The good thing for Zona is teams like UMBC, CSU Bakersfield and NDSU all have a great shot to win their respective conferences, so that's likely a team to end up in the 100-150 RPI range, if not better, for example CSU Bakersfield had an RPI of 77 last year, and it's a game Zona has no real threat to lose. NDSU finished 2nd in the Summit with an RPI of 109. UMBC returns 6 of their top 7 from a 21 win team. Northern Arizona appears to be the only RPI "albatross" on the schedule, which is a great thing. There's a realistic shot that every opponent Zona faces next year finishes with a top 150 RPI except NAU. And obviously teams like Bama, UNLV, TAMU, B4A opponents will finish much higher.

I don't see anyway that type of schedule doesn't produce a top 10 OOC SOS next year.
 

CatsTopPac

Well-Known Member
5,536
717
113
Joined
Aug 7, 2013
Location
USA
Hoopla Cash
$ 100.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
That is a really strong field for the B4A. Purdue, WKU and SMU should all be tournament teams next season along with obviously Zona and Nova. And Tennessee/N.Iowa should be much improved. N Iowa is probably the favorites to win the MVC.

I really like the rest of the schedule for Zona. Sets up well to have a really good Non Conf. SOS. When looking at an OOC schedule I always look for the "gimme games" such as an NAU, UMBC, CSU Bakersfield, LBSU, NDSU. The good thing for Zona is teams like UMBC, CSU Bakersfield and NDSU all have a great shot to win their respective conferences, so that's likely a team to end up in the 100-150 RPI range, if not better, for example CSU Bakersfield had an RPI of 77 last year, and it's a game Zona has no real threat to lose. NDSU finished 2nd in the Summit with an RPI of 109. UMBC returns 6 of their top 7 from a 21 win team. Northern Arizona appears to be the only RPI "albatross" on the schedule, which is a great thing. There's a realistic shot that every opponent Zona faces next year finishes with a top 150 RPI except NAU. And obviously teams like Bama, UNLV, TAMU, B4A opponents will finish much higher.

I don't see anyway that type of schedule doesn't produce a top 10 OOC SOS next year.

Those are some great points. I didn't fully get the importance of the bottom of the SOS being (probably) more important than the top, until last year. Miller was really pissed last year that AZ was scheduled Sacred Heart and Northern Colorado in the LV Invitational. They were both around 300 RPI teams and hurt the non-con SOS more than not playing more teams in the top 50. He explained it in a press conference and it definitely changed the way I think about SOS.

Like you said, having some of those weaker teams still better than a 200 RPI is a pretty big deal. As always, some of the expectations for the schedule will adjust once the games play out, but good looking out on the research and analysis on those team. Good to know!
 

ericd7633

Well-Known Member
18,113
3,145
293
Joined
Jul 14, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 11,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Those are some great points. I didn't fully get the importance of the bottom of the SOS being (probably) more important than the top, until last year. Miller was really pissed last year that AZ was scheduled Sacred Heart and Northern Colorado in the LV Invitational. They were both around 300 RPI teams and hurt the non-con SOS more than not playing more teams in the top 50. He explained it in a press conference and it definitely changed the way I think about SOS.

Like you said, having some of those weaker teams still better than a 200 RPI is a pretty big deal. As always, some of the expectations for the schedule will adjust once the games play out, but good looking out on the research and analysis on those team. Good to know!

I think it is more important, at least in terms of how it's calculated in the RPI formula metric. I started following it casually a couple years ago, but it really came to fruition last year since the Gophers were in the midst of a really good season.

Just a quick comparison to another B1G team in Indiana. Indiana's top 4 OOC opponents last year were(RPI rank), Kansas(3), North Carolina(5), Louisville(7), Butler(14). Minnesota's top 4 OOC opponents last year were, Florida State(13), Arkansas(25), Vanderbilt(38), UT-Arlington(45). The big difference is Minnesota played SIX games against RPI competition 100-149. While Indiana played ZERO and played SIX opponents with an RPI 250+, and FOUR of them were 300+ teams. The final SOS #'s(using RPI) were 28th ranked for Minnesota and 139th ranked for Indiana. What Indiana did last year, was really the worst thing you can do in scheduling. IMO filling up your schedule with 100-150 teams is the way to go, the problem with that is trying to project out who's going to be good. Minnesota was lucky last year that teams like Arkansas State(284 RPI in 15-16 had an RPI of 120 last year) and Mt. St. Mary's(248 in 15-16 to 149 last year) played better than anyone thought.

Getting back to Arizona though, they did a great job of finding teams who are projected to be good at the mid-major to low-major level. Not that I think they'll need help from their OOC SOS next year, because I think for sure they'll be a 1 seed, but maybe if there's a chance of them being the final #1 seed or first #2 seed, this type of schedule might make the difference.
 

CatsTopPac

Well-Known Member
5,536
717
113
Joined
Aug 7, 2013
Location
USA
Hoopla Cash
$ 100.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Very excited for this season... might be the most talented team in the history of Arizona Basketball.

I just read some ESPN article about the bigs in CBB this coming season. They brought up Ayton and said he's gained 30lbs of muscle in the last 7 weeks. He's now 7' 260.

Holy shit!

Trying to keep my expectations in check, and there is plenty of other talent out there, but this is as excited as I've been for CBB in well over a decade!
 

CatsTopPac

Well-Known Member
5,536
717
113
Joined
Aug 7, 2013
Location
USA
Hoopla Cash
$ 100.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
The Pac schedule just came out. AZ only plays the Washington schools on the road, and only plays the Socal schools at home. That might be huge for AZ this season, kind of like only playing the Oregon schools on the road hurt us last year. Plus, with both SC and UCLA having solid squads next year, we can avoid having to play both back to back on the road, a trip that has fucked with AZ under Miller. I'm guessing we'll face at least one of them in P12 tourney, so we'll see how it goes on a neutral court. All of that being said, I think AZ should play the Socal schools home and away every year, because UCLA is our biggest rival. Instead, ASU is the only conference team AZ plays twice every year. All that does for us is hurt our SOS.

I leave for Guatemala in January for at least 8 months. If this is the year we go to the FF or beyond, I'm going to be pissed that I won't be in Tucson for it. Still can't wait for season though!
:gaah:
 

ericd7633

Well-Known Member
18,113
3,145
293
Joined
Jul 14, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 11,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
More bad news for Zona:


Most likely misses the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament(likely title game between them and Nova)
 

ericd7633

Well-Known Member
18,113
3,145
293
Joined
Jul 14, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 11,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Figured id post the preseason media poll.

Arizona again the Pac-12 Men’s Basketball preseason favorite

1. ARIZONA (22) 273
2. USC (1) 251
3. UCLA 223
4. OREGON 203
5. STANFORD 182
6. ARIZONA STATE 146
7. UTAH 129
8. OREGON STATE 125
9. COLORADO 112
10. WASHINGTON 71
11. CALIFORNIA 46
12. WASHINGTON STATE 33

Looks like 4 definite bids, and could maybe get up to 6 in the tournament. Maybe Oregon State could surprise with a healthy Tinkle.
 

Hitman Hart

College Basketball's #1 Venue
6,653
1,495
173
Joined
May 3, 2012
Location
NC
Hoopla Cash
$ 301.55
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
Looks like 4 definite bids, and could maybe get up to 6 in the tournament. Maybe Oregon State could surprise with a healthy Tinkle.

eh, I don't think Oregon is a lock. Lost their five top scorers from a year ago. They added two good grad transfers and bring in a good recruiting class.
 

ericd7633

Well-Known Member
18,113
3,145
293
Joined
Jul 14, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 11,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
eh, I don't think Oregon is a lock. Lost their five top scorers from a year ago. They added two good grad transfers and bring in a good recruiting class.

I think they'll be a 8-10 seed or so. I think Altman is really underrated at developing his players. I just don't see anyway they don't finish top 5 in the conference, which will almost assuredly get them a bid. I think they have a nice blend of experience and talented underclassmen. Brown and Bailey should be impact guys as Freshman. One area of concern is their lack of depth in the front court. But they've never been a team reliant on that so I think it's less of a concern. But maybe I'm putting too much stock in Altman, and not figuring in the impact of losing a guy like Brooks. He was special.
 

Hitman Hart

College Basketball's #1 Venue
6,653
1,495
173
Joined
May 3, 2012
Location
NC
Hoopla Cash
$ 301.55
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
I think they'll be a 8-10 seed or so. I think Altman is really underrated at developing his players. I just don't see anyway they don't finish top 5 in the conference, which will almost assuredly get them a bid. I think they have a nice blend of experience and talented underclassmen. Brown and Bailey should be impact guys as Freshman. One area of concern is their lack of depth in the front court. But they've never been a team reliant on that so I think it's less of a concern. But maybe I'm putting too much stock in Altman, and not figuring in the impact of losing a guy like Brooks. He was special.

There's a difference, imo, between a "lock" and "likely to make the tournament". Oregon is the latter.
 

ericd7633

Well-Known Member
18,113
3,145
293
Joined
Jul 14, 2013
Hoopla Cash
$ 11,000.00
Fav. Team #1
Fav. Team #2
Fav. Team #3
There's a difference, imo, between a "lock" and "likely to make the tournament". Oregon is the latter.

I would agree with that assessment. They certainly shouldn't be categorized the same a team like Kansas is. lol. That one's on me.
 
Top