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On to the off-season...

femurov

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So, I lost in the 'ship game, but I still think the season was a success. Luckily, it wasn't a close enough game for me to spend time dwelling on who I should have started or picked up. So, in this league, we have to cut down to a 5 man squad by Super Bowl Sunday. Ultimately, we will cut down to 3 players, but that won't be until around July 4th. 1 of the final 3 will have to be an IDP. I think I have that covered with Luke Kuechly. I have a small worry about him retiring, but I think it is worth the risk, especially if they get knocked out of the playoffs early and there is no chatter afterwards about it. If I do keep only him on defense and he ends up retiring sometime after the Super Bowl, I get stuck with him until after the draft.

On offense, I have to consider the fact that we can start trading once everyone has their 5 man squad... and we are allowed to trade for draft picks. So, I need to worry about which 2 I will be ultimately keeping and also who will have the most value in a trade before July 4th. It is very difficult to find a partner, since most teams easily have 2 guys they feel comfortable keeping. There are a couple teams that do not have great options, though. Here are my candidates to keep...


WR Michael Thomas - I can't imagine me not keeping him. Maybe if Brees retires or moves on, but this looks unlikely unless maybe they win the Super Bowl. Or maybe if someone offers something nice for him, as I know there are some people who like him in my league.

RB Shady McCoy - We'll have to see how bad this ankle injury is, but they are saying he may be ready to play this week, so it shouldn't have any long term effect. But he is one year older and just had another season where he was near 350 touches. If I had better options, he would be a good trade candidate.

RB Derrick Henry - I feel like I have to have him on my 5 man squad. If Demarco Murray gets cut or traded, he becomes the feature back with no competition and shoots up to probably a 2nd round pick in redrafts. I think it could make McCoy expendable.

RB Joe Mixon - Should be the feature back next season. I feel like Gio moves on (I think he has an opt out in his contract) and Jeremy HIll will probably get cut. There is a Bengals fan who was trying to trade for him all year. I plan on feeling him out and trying to see how likely he is to be interested. He has other options for keepers, but none that are "locks" in my opinion. I think he has Brady, Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper as his best options.

WR Tyreek Hill - This guy has grown on me this season. He is a boom or bust type guy, but his floor seems higher than most. Plus, he is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. If Mahomes takes over at QB, his arm and Hill's speed could be a beautiful match for many years to come. And we get bonus points for TDs over 40 yards.

LB Christian Kirksey or Sean Lee - As insurance for Kuechly and/or maybe a sneakier trade candidate. Wouldn't gain me a very high draft pick, but it would be easier to find a partner with a weak IDP keeper.


Right now, I am thinking Thomas, McCoy, Henry, Mixon and Kuechly. This may or may not change, depending on the Bengals fan's interest in Mixon.
 

femurov

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I put out a feeler on McCoy and may be able to get a 2nd for him. It would be a late 2nd, but it's better than nothing since I am missing my 2nd round pick. Tyreek Hill is growing on me more and more as a serious candidate to make the final cut. Him and Michael Thomas are a nice young, explosive duo.
 

leftypower

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I think your head is in the right place. Can't really think of anything (or reason) to sway your 'plan'. .... I would say this, I'd not give S. Lee much thought at all. Guy is a stud when playing but age and constant injuries don't make him worth a consideration as a keeper. .... the final three (in my humble mind) should probably be Kuechly, Henry, Mixon. WRs are easier to replace than RBs, although if you went with Hill or Thomas over one of them (say Mixon or Henry if Murray comes back), I wouldn't blame you. .... nice 'problem' to have. ....
 

Barilko

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well though out sir

i think you should decide now who you really think your final 2 (not counting Luke) would be even though you have to July

at least which final 2 you would hope or expect to have


then you consider the other 2 worth the most in trade value and trade feeler input so far
as you will be cutting them by the Bowl whether you trade them or not

my summation is

if final 2 in July is Henry (locked) and maybe Thomas then

based on trade thoughts and feelers so far drop one of Shady Hill or Mixon


if final 2 in July is Henry (locked) and maybe (Hill or Thomas) because you are not sure yet then

cut Shady as Mixon should hold way more trade value

lastly

if you are sure about Henry in July but number 2 is Thomas or Mixon or Hill

then your choice now is simply cut Shady or move him asap to lesson the burden of the last 2 cuts



i hope my thoughts are legible

as Lefty said Wr is easier to find

but i sure would want to keep Thomas
 

Yellow Fuzzies

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I am not sure what your final plan will be but I would not dismiss Shady so easily. He is still near the top of his game.
 

femurov

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So, I am coming to the realization that I may be looking at this off season the wrong way. As I look around the league, I see a few teams have more ammo than I do to acquire draft picks. And while there is always some talk, off season trades don't happen all that frequently. So, even though I have been discussing a deal for McCoy, I'm pretty sure he will be talking with a couple other guys in the league and find something better.

So, I'm thinking that maybe I should change my focus. I'm not sure if I mentioned it, but I traded away my 2nd and 5th round picks, so I am going into the draft a little behind in the early rounds. I was trying to recoup a top 5 pick, but maybe I should instead try to improve my keeper situation. You see the guys I have. McCoy is solid, but he gets knicked up a lot and is on the wrong side of his career in a league where we can keep guys as long as we want with no draft pick restrictions. Maybe I should dangle my first out there and see what I can come up with.

There are 7 teams who are not going to make any moves. I am almost certain. There is the one team that I have been talking about McCoy to who would be the only competition I would have for buying. The other three teams have 3 or 4 guys who are keeperable, but we can only keep 2. 2 of those teams are known wheelers and dealers and missing their first round picks. One is missing his 2nd, also (Team A). The other one is missing his 3rd (Team B). Team C has all of his picks.

Here are the guys they are probably considering keeping...

Team A - Kamara, Fournette, Julio

Team B - Bell (may be off limits, may not be, though), Melvin Gordon, AJ Green (on the block)

Team C - K Hunt, McCaffrey, Antonio Brown (on the block), Gronk (on the block, but I am not really interested)


I could offer something as simple as my 1st for Bell or maybe try to get Green and Bell for maybe my 1st and McCoy and/or Thomas? Maybe Hunt or McCaffrey and Brown for my 1st and Thomas? I know team C likes Michael Thomas. If he wasn't so stacked, I would consider trying to trade him for a pick, but anyway. I could try to get Fournette and Kamara, maybe?

I am a little hesitant about the rookie RBs, though. I am a believer in the sophomore slump. Though, if I am looking to improve my keepers, I should be looking past this upcoming season. But I'm not sure I am 100% sold that any of them being perennial top 5-10 backs for the foreseeable future. And should I be so quick to dismiss Michael Thomas? What will his life look like without Drew Brees? Same could be asked about Kamara, though, I guess. And what about the Pittsburgh boys without Ben?

I guess the first step is to talk around and see what people are thinking.
 

femurov

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How much does Tyreek Hill's value increase with the Alex Smith deal? Should I be considering him as a keeper over McCoy or Michael Thomas?
 

SmokingMonkey

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How much does Tyreek Hill's value increase with the Alex Smith deal? Should I be considering him as a keeper over McCoy or Michael Thomas?

since the dude straight burned by people who knew he was going to try to burn by them all season, is at the VERY LEAST, getting a QB with a bigger arm, I think I'm keeping Tyreek in this situation.

give me thomas and henry to round it out and deal McCoy for the 2nd round pick.
Mixon too, deal him if you can.

when you make your final cuts, I think I go with the HR potential over the steady contributor, and since Hill has the younger QB and is younger than Thomas himself, Hill, Henry, LK are my final 3.
 

SteelersPride

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How much does Tyreek Hill's value increase with the Alex Smith deal? Should I be considering him as a keeper over McCoy or Michael Thomas?
think it decreases id wanna see mahomes first
 

femurov

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Update... I just shipped out Michael Thomas for a couple of picks. So, the choice for my 2 keepers now come down to...

LeSean McCoy
Tyreek Hill
Derek Henry
Jarvis Landry

Landry was a throw in for the Thomas deal to keep the rosters even and will be dropped, unless there is a strong argument for keeping him over Hill and Henry. I'm leaning towards keeping the 2 RBs and being done with it. I had mentioned that Hill was growing on me, but it's weird. I love the thought of him as my #2 WR, but not sold on him being my #1. I also think I may be looking hard at whichever player that I end up dropping when I get on the clock in August.

Any insight on Hill vs Henry? McCoy has to be a lock, right? And Landry has to be a must-drop?
 

HaroldSeattle

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Update... I just shipped out Michael Thomas for a couple of picks. So, the choice for my 2 keepers now come down to...

LeSean McCoy
Tyreek Hill
Derek Henry
Jarvis Landry

Landry was a throw in for the Thomas deal to keep the rosters even and will be dropped, unless there is a strong argument for keeping him over Hill and Henry. I'm leaning towards keeping the 2 RBs and being done with it. I had mentioned that Hill was growing on me, but it's weird. I love the thought of him as my #2 WR, but not sold on him being my #1. I also think I may be looking hard at whichever player that I end up dropping when I get on the clock in August.

Any insight on Hill vs Henry? McCoy has to be a lock, right? And Landry has to be a must-drop?
This is a tough one. Personal I hate banking on the elderly to have another year in them, especially RBs. So I’d go Henry and Hill, but won’t be that thrilled about it.
 

averagejoe

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This is a tough one. Personal I hate banking on the elderly to have another year in them, especially RBs. So I’d go Henry and Hill, but won’t be that thrilled about it.
Kind of agree with Harold.
But at least McCoy is steady.
Over the last 3 seasons he still averages 102 all-purpose yards per game.
Only 2 other active RB have done that over the last 3 years. (Gurley & Bell)
(EE, Fournette, Cook and Hunt average over 102 ypg too but neither of these 4 have played 3 seasons yet.)
And while McCoy only averages a little better than 14 games per season, not many lead RB will play all 16 games.
Yet McCoy did last all 16 games last season too.
 

Bandit

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McCoy and Henry for me. I wouldn't trust Hill with a new quarterback until I see it and like it or not, Sammy Watkins is going to eat into his targets because they paid him way too much money for him not to.
 

ehb5

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Update... I just shipped out Michael Thomas for a couple of picks. So, the choice for my 2 keepers now come down to...

LeSean McCoy
Tyreek Hill
Derek Henry
Jarvis Landry

Landry was a throw in for the Thomas deal to keep the rosters even and will be dropped, unless there is a strong argument for keeping him over Hill and Henry. I'm leaning towards keeping the 2 RBs and being done with it. I had mentioned that Hill was growing on me, but it's weird. I love the thought of him as my #2 WR, but not sold on him being my #1. I also think I may be looking hard at whichever player that I end up dropping when I get on the clock in August.

Any insight on Hill vs Henry? McCoy has to be a lock, right? And Landry has to be a must-drop?

I'd take hill over Henry. I can see him being a WR1 more easily than Henry a RB1.
 

ehb5

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McCoy and Henry for me. I wouldn't trust Hill with a new quarterback until I see it and like it or not, Sammy Watkins is going to eat into his targets because they paid him way too much money for him not to.

While all of that is true, Henry actually finds himself in a similar spot considering Tennessee just paid Dion lewis. I'm sure thatll be a split backfield.
 

SmokingMonkey

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While all of that is true, Henry actually finds himself in a similar spot considering Tennessee just paid Dion lewis. I'm sure thatll be a split backfield.

Dynasty or keeper, wouldn't mind seeing Henry leave titans and get a shot elsewhere, like Turner to the falcons a decade+ ago
 

TKOSpikes

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Henry and Shady.

I like Hill, but I feel Bandit made a good point. With Smith and Watkins coming aboard, might be best to chance drafting him instead.

And this is coming from me. I love, love, love Shady. But our line is in shambles (C, RG, RT). Our receivers demand nothing. Shady will see 8 in the box regularly. The only way I see Shady duplicating the last couple years, is if Josh Allen is a beast.

That said, it's hard not to envision 25 touches every week for him. I'm sure he can push for 1300 total yards.
 

femurov

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Dynasty or keeper, wouldn't mind seeing Henry leave titans and get a shot elsewhere, like Turner to the falcons a decade+ ago
It is a keeper league. We keep 2 offensive players and 1 IDP.
 

SteelersPride

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henry i dont like with lewis there now, he couldnt beat out an aging murray
 
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