Official Mariners arm-chair GM offseason thread

[NWinAZ]

our bench coach left to be the 1B coach for the nats

we'll see how much longer edgar bothers to stick around (and no, i don't think he'd move anywhere else)

He didn't leave, they fired him because he knew more than the manager. You can't have that in Seattle.

 

[NWinAZ]

I don't know about Abreu's availability but if they got him it makes a ton more sense than buying a 1B.

I have been hoping for him for a couple years now. I thought they would deal him with their youth movement, but not yet I guess. He would be a nice fit.

 

[NWinAZ]

I would love a Paxton for Carson Fulmer and Abreu deal. Probably just me though.

 

[NWinAZ]

Another what the heck offer:

Paxton and Vogelbach for Cueto, Samardzija, and Belt. Take on the money and hope for rebirths.

 

[NWinAZ]

Paxton-Gamel to Toronto for Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, Tepera

 

[PolarVortex]

From The Brewers:

Why would the Brewers and the Mariners partner on a deal?
The Mariners have needs at first base and center field. Dan Vogelbach currently occupies first base. He has a ton of power, but is horrible defensively. Yonder Alonso was their first baseman along with Danny Valencia last year, but they’re free agents now. If they sign elsewhere, the Mariners will want someone to come in to play first base.

In center, 26-year old Guillermo Heredia is going to take over for Jarrod Dyson. That’s not exactly an ideal scenario. The Milwaukee Brewers can help the Seattle Mariners with these problems. The Mariners have a lot of big contracts that have sent their payroll north of $165 million in 2017. They will be looking for some inexpensive options to fill these holes in the roster.

If David Stearns and Jerry Dipoto decide to make a trade together this winter, here’s one way that deal could look.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS GETRHP THYAGO VIEIRA, RHP WYATT MILLS, LHP ROBERT DUGGER

SEATTLE MARINERS GETOF KEON BROXTON, 1B JESUS AGUILAR
The Milwaukee Brewers got three young pitchers for Adam Lind in 2015 and in this trade they get three young pitchers once again. Although these pitchers are much closer to the majors than the other group. Keon Broxton and Jesus Aguilar head to Seattle in exchange.

Who are the prospects in this deal?
Thyago Vieira is the Mariners eighth ranked prospect and reaches triple digits on his fastball. He also possesses a good curveball and profiles as a late inning reliever. He could be a future closer but his control is still lacking and may need a few years of development in low pressure situations out of the bullpen until he can become a full time closer. Corey Knebel went through the same situation and these two would make a great one-two punch in the back of the bullpen.

Wyatt Mills is the Mariners 22nd ranked prospect according to MLB.com and pitched to a 1.77 ERA in 18 games since getting selected in the third round of the 2017 MLB Draft. His lanky, side-arm/low three quarter delivery is devastating to same sided hitters and he commands his fastball-slider combination extremely well. He’s basically a right-handed version of Josh Hader without the potential to start.

Robert Dugger finished the season with the High-A Modesto Nuts and had a 2.75 ERA in 31 games, including 18 starts The lefty struck out 116 batters in 117 innings and also collected two saves in 2017. Dugger does have the potential to stay as a starter, although he would be a back-end starter. He’s done well since being drafted out of Texas Tech in 2016.

What about the Brewers headed to Seattle?
Keon Broxton had a 20 homer season for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2017, but he’ll get forced out of his spot in center field if he stays. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto will need starting outfielders this winter. Given the state of the Seattle farm system, any trade acquisition will have some flaws. But Dipoto loves athletic center-fielders that play good defense. Keon Broxton fits that description perfectly. His bat is very streaky, but his defense is consistent.

Jesus Aguilar will also be a cheap option for the Mariners to plug in at first base instead of Dan Vogelbach after the departures of Yonder Alonso and Danny Valencia. Aguilar turned in a good season and could be on the trade block this winter. He posted a .265/.331/.505 line with 16 homers in only 279 ABs this year. If Jerry Dipoto doesn’t want to pay a ton of money for any free agent first baseman, Aguilar can come in and play on a regular basis.

Does this trade suit both sides?
In this deal, the Milwaukee Brewers give the Seattle Mariners two players they can plug into their starting lineup on Opening Day. In return, the Brewers receive a late inning relief arm that could be in the bullpen to start the season, a right handed version of Josh Hader, and a potential left-handed starter in the future. Getting two top-30 prospects is key to Milwaukee giving up the long term control over Broxton and Aguilar.

In a potential deal with Seattle, Broxton and Aguilar wouldn’t necessarily need to be packaged together. These two could easily go to Seattle in a deal individually. Everything depends on how the market shakes out for Seattle. But if the Winter Meetings roll around and Seattle still has not found an answer for center field and first base, a deal like this makes a lot of sense for both clubs.

Unfortunately, I think our first baseman next year will be either Mitch Moreland or Lucas Duda and we will overpay for whichever one lands here.

The trade scenario with Milwaukee is an interesting one but it is just too wise of a move for this organization. I think the Brewers will be looking to unload Ryan Braun this winter. He may have a good year or two left in him but I'd rather not see him come here.

 

[PolarVortex]

Paxton-Gamel to Toronto for Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, Tepera

I think Paxton is going to get shipped out somewhere this winter. I don't have much faith that we will get a good return package. Probably something like Paxton and Gamel for Sterling Marte, Jameson Taillon and Daniel Hudson. I'd rather get Cutch but we just don't get players like Cutch in a trade. We wait until they are free agents and then pay them based on what they used to be rather than what they are going to be.

 

[NWinAZ]

I think Paxton is going to get shipped out somewhere this winter. I don't have much faith that we will get a good return package. Probably something like Paxton and Gamel for Sterling Marte, Jameson Taillon and Daniel Hudson. I'd rather get Cutch but we just don't get players like Cutch in a trade. We wait until they are free agents and then pay them based on what they used to be rather than what they are going to be.

That is a good trade as well. I don't think he gets a large return either, but IF there is another Dipoto out there we may get more than expected.

A Yankees deal for Paxton might also work. Bird, Hicks, Warren, and Kahnle.

 

[NWinAZ]

2017 MLB Offseason Preview: Seattle Mariners
by Anthony Spaulding Nov 10, 2017, 5:20pm EST TWEET
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle Mariners (78-84), 3rd in the AL West
Free Agents: 1B Yonder Alonso, 1B Danny Valencia, OF Jarrod Dyson, C Carlos Ruiz, IF Gordon Beckham, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Yovani Gallardo

Since Jerry Dipoto became their general manager in 2015, the Mariners have not been ones to refrain from making any moves. This past season, the Mariners led the majors in roster moves and players used, but too many injuries — particularly to their starting rotation — and poor performances in September led them to missing the postseason for 16th straight time after having high expectations of getting there.

This disappointing season leaves Dipoto and company with some big needs that they have to address if they want to end their postseason drought, which is the longest active streak in baseball. One thing for sure is that they will make sure the Mariners will be in the middle of the action as the offseason heats up.

The top priority for the M’s in 2018 is starting pitching. According to Greg Johns of MLB.com, Seattle ”figures to look to add a quality veteran to the top end of the rotation if possible, as well as more depth” after having to use 40 pitchers, including 17 starters this past season. After all, the top four in their rotation suffered injuries, as Drew Smyly missed the entire season, Hisashi Iwakuma was sidelined for five months, ace Felix Hernandez was out for four months, and James Paxton — who was having a career year and regarded as one of the best pitchers in the game — had to miss three months. The Mariners did acquire three starters in Mike Leake, Erasmo Ramirez and Marco Gonzales during the season, but they have to find a durable arm that they can count on being in the rotation all year. Johns says some “possible FA fits” include Japan’s Shohei Ohtani, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Tyler Chatwood, Jeremy Hellickson and Chris Tillman.

Another big position they have to fill is first base, as Yonder Alonso and Danny Valencia are free agents. Johns said the Mariners could try to bring back Alonso, who was an All-Star last year for the Athletics before being traded to Seattle, after he hit 28 homers overall and provides another power bat alongside Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz. Other potential first baseman the M’s can try to sign in free agency are Carlos Santana, Lucas Duda and Logan Morrison.

Moreover, they need to add veterans in the outfield and in the bullpen.

Last year, the Mariners started three rookies, Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia, in the outfield and also had veteran Jarrod Dyson, who missed the final six weeks after undergoing pelvic surgery. Dyson is a free agent, so they will. The Mariners have already been mentioned as a possible place for Yankees outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury could go to, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Even though it would be ideal for Ellsbury, who is an Oregon native, the Mariners may not be able to swing a trade for him because he is still owed $64 million over the next three seasons plus has a $21 club option for 2021. The Mariners

As for bullpen help, the Mariners wouldn’t mind adding another consistent arm to a group that already includes young closer Edwin Diaz, Nick Vincent, David Phelps, Marc Rzepczynski, Emilio Pagan, James Pazos and Dan Altavilla. Possible free agents they could go after include Bryan Shaw, Addison Reed, Brandon Morrow and Pat Neshek.

 

[cezero]

He didn't leave, they fired him because he knew more than the manager. You can't have that in Seattle.

oops!

i think i even posted about him getting fired awhile back. lol. DRUNK

 

[unlvmariners]

I think Paxton is going to get shipped out somewhere this winter. I don't have much faith that we will get a good return package. Probably something like Paxton and Gamel for Sterling Marte, Jameson Taillon and Daniel Hudson. I'd rather get Cutch but we just don't get players like Cutch in a trade. We wait until they are free agents and then pay them based on what they used to be rather than what they are going to be.

I think trading Paxton is what this team should do. However I do not think they will. I think you could get a decent return for Paxton especially if you structure the trade similarly to what Dipoto did with the Walker/Marte trade. Problem with trading Paxton is it open up yet another hole in the rotation (not that he won't get hurt anyway). This team needs to commit to a rebuild.

 

[NWinAZ]

I think trading Paxton is what this team should do. However I do not think they will. I think you could get a decent return for Paxton especially if you structure the trade similarly to what Dipoto did with the Walker/Marte trade. Problem with trading Paxton is it open up yet another hole in the rotation (not that he won't get hurt anyway). This team needs to commit to a rebuild.

I know a lot of people want a rebuild, but I really think we can retool instead. Maybe we are all talking the same thing, but we have enough pieces in place if we use our vets to get some solid MLB ready players to add to them and still compete. I guess when I hear rebuild I think trade all vets for all MiLB prospects and then wait three years to see them all fail before ever making the majors with us.

I would love to see:

Paxton traded for a young (22-25) MLB SP, an athletic OF, 3B or 1B with skills, and a young prospect AA level or MLB reliever. (Paxton and Vogelbach to Brewers for Broxton, Aguilar, Suter, and Hader)

Seager for a young 3B. (Seager to Yanks for Warren (or Kahnle), Hicks, and Miguel Andujar).

Cruz for a MLB SP or CF. (Cruz to Boston for Eduardo Rodriguez and Sam Travis)

Trade or send down to start season: Rzep, Zych, Vincent, Simmons

Sign a SP like Lynn.
Sign a big free agent with Seager money saved like Hosmer.
Sign two stud late end relievers among Minor, Swarzak, Reed, or Shaw.
Sign Eduardo Nunez for 3B.

My way too early 25 man roster:

C- Zunino
1B- Hosmer
2B- Cano
3B- Nunez
SS- Segura
LF- Gamel
CF- Broxton
RF- Haniger
DH- Aguilar
BN- Hicks
BN- Travis
BN- Utility Man TBNL
BN- Catcher TBNL

SP- Lynn
SP- Leake
SP- Rodriguez (L)
SP- Felix
SP- Suter (L)

RP- Hader (L)
RP- Ramirez
RP- Swarzak
RP- Minor (L)
RP- Warren/Kahnle
RP- Pazos (L)
RP- Phelps
CL- Diaz

I could trade Gamel for a prospect and keep Heredia who I really like in a platoon.

That is my retool plan. Sign me up JD!

 

[PolarVortex]

I know a lot of people want a rebuild, but I really think we can retool instead. Maybe we are all talking the same thing, but we have enough pieces in place if we use our vets to get some solid MLB ready players to add to them and still compete. I guess when I hear rebuild I think trade all vets for all MiLB prospects and then wait three years to see them all fail before ever making the majors with us.

I would love to see:

Paxton traded for a young (22-25) MLB SP, an athletic OF, 3B or 1B with skills, and a young prospect AA level or MLB reliever. (Paxton and Vogelbach to Brewers for Broxton, Aguilar, Suter, and Hader)

Seager for a young 3B. (Seager to Yanks for Warren (or Kahnle), Hicks, and Miguel Andujar).

Cruz for a MLB SP or CF. (Cruz to Boston for Eduardo Rodriguez and Sam Travis)

Trade or send down to start season: Rzep, Zych, Vincent, Simmons

Sign a SP like Lynn.
Sign a big free agent with Seager money saved like Hosmer.
Sign two stud late end relievers among Minor, Swarzak, Reed, or Shaw.
Sign Eduardo Nunez for 3B.

My way too early 25 man roster:

C- Zunino
1B- Hosmer
2B- Cano
3B- Nunez
SS- Segura
LF- Gamel
CF- Broxton
RF- Haniger
DH- Aguilar
BN- Hicks
BN- Travis
BN- Utility Man TBNL
BN- Catcher TBNL

SP- Lynn
SP- Leake
SP- Rodriguez (L)
SP- Felix
SP- Suter (L)

RP- Hader (L)
RP- Ramirez
RP- Swarzak
RP- Minor (L)
RP- Warren/Kahnle
RP- Pazos (L)
RP- Phelps
CL- Diaz

I could trade Gamel for a prospect and keep Heredia who I really like in a platoon.

That is my retool plan. Sign me up JD!

I'll be keeping a real close eye on Gamel, regardless of who he ends up with. I'm curious to see how much he can actually produce. Last year was a tale of two extremes from an incredibly unrealistic BABIP over the first two months to a below average BABIP over the last three months. He should benefit from now having 600 PAs at the MLB level. Unsure of what his ceiling might be.

 

[NWinAZ]

Inside Baseball | How Much Will Top-80 Free Agents Get?

 

[unlvmariners]

I know a lot of people want a rebuild, but I really think we can retool instead. Maybe we are all talking the same thing, but we have enough pieces in place if we use our vets to get some solid MLB ready players to add to them and still compete. I guess when I hear rebuild I think trade all vets for all MiLB prospects and then wait three years to see them all fail before ever making the majors with us.

I would love to see:

Paxton traded for a young (22-25) MLB SP, an athletic OF, 3B or 1B with skills, and a young prospect AA level or MLB reliever. (Paxton and Vogelbach to Brewers for Broxton, Aguilar, Suter, and Hader)

Seager for a young 3B. (Seager to Yanks for Warren (or Kahnle), Hicks, and Miguel Andujar).

Cruz for a MLB SP or CF. (Cruz to Boston for Eduardo Rodriguez and Sam Travis)

Trade or send down to start season: Rzep, Zych, Vincent, Simmons

Sign a SP like Lynn.
Sign a big free agent with Seager money saved like Hosmer.
Sign two stud late end relievers among Minor, Swarzak, Reed, or Shaw.
Sign Eduardo Nunez for 3B.

My way too early 25 man roster:

C- Zunino
1B- Hosmer
2B- Cano
3B- Nunez
SS- Segura
LF- Gamel
CF- Broxton
RF- Haniger
DH- Aguilar
BN- Hicks
BN- Travis
BN- Utility Man TBNL
BN- Catcher TBNL

SP- Lynn
SP- Leake
SP- Rodriguez (L)
SP- Felix
SP- Suter (L)

RP- Hader (L)
RP- Ramirez
RP- Swarzak
RP- Minor (L)
RP- Warren/Kahnle
RP- Pazos (L)
RP- Phelps
CL- Diaz

I could trade Gamel for a prospect and keep Heredia who I really like in a platoon.

That is my retool plan. Sign me up JD!

I agree with you for the most part. We really are just talking the same thing, a full blown rebuild (in the traditional sense) is not going to happen, not with the way the roster is right now. I honestly don't think this Mariners roster is that far off from being pretty good. However I think we need 2 legit SP, 1 outfielder and obviously a first basemen. I just don't think Dip will deliver the correct guys for those spots.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Why trade Paxton?

We have a new "high performance" specialist. Not like he, or anyone else on this roster will ever get injured again.

 

[wazzu31]

I think trading Paxton is what this team should do. However I do not think they will. I think you could get a decent return for Paxton especially if you structure the trade similarly to what Dipoto did with the Walker/Marte trade. Problem with trading Paxton is it open up yet another hole in the rotation (not that he won't get hurt anyway). This team needs to commit to a rebuild.

The problem I have, is I have zero faith in Jerry to do a good Paxton deal. I think it's a catch 22 in dealing him as I think he could net a boat load of talent at the deadline but would also be risking he'd be hurt.

 

[unlvmariners]

The problem I have, is I have zero faith in Jerry to do a good Paxton deal. I think it's a catch 22 in dealing him as I think he could net a boat load of talent at the deadline but would also be risking he'd be hurt.

I haven't completely given up on Dipoto being able to make a decent trade but hasn't given much hope with some of his most recent trades.

 

[wazzu31]

I haven't completely given up on Dipoto being able to make a decent trade but hasn't given much hope with some of his most recent trades.

I will totally admit that I am bias against Dipoto right now, and do not think he is the man for the job with rebuilding this team (granted he was given a crap sandwich to work with) but its more of the handling of a James Paxton trade is a very difficult trade that I cant imagine any GM would have a good time with. When he is on and healthy at the deadline, he should net the biggest return in Mariners/possibly deadline history given his contract..but if a GM pulls the trigger too early or too late he might get hurt. I don't think trading him in the offseason will get the most value as a lefty ace is more valuable at the deadline than the offseason such as Walker off season value vs the Cliff Lee deals.

 

[NWinAZ]