Numbers

[JohnU]

Let's let the metrics experts explain how the Reds pitching is deceptively bad this year.
Meanwhile, Votto keeps drawing walks even though he's the only guy on the team who can hit.
Elimination number is 9, probably the earliest date since maybe 1982.
And deJesus gets to play left field because we only have 342 other options.
Change the batting order, Price ... and give Holmberg another 6 starts ... hell, I could hit this guy.
Meanwhile, Chapman can't get a save because Badenworse can't get anybody out. Neither can Jumbo, but who noticed? Mack Jenkins?
Hamilton can't bunt because his shoulder is hurt.
Bruce can't hit because the pitchers are trying to trick him.
It is really hard to believe this team has been this badly managed, top to bottom.

 

[eburg5000]

I'm just venting here. This team has just quit. Detroit sent out a pitcher with almost a 9.00 ERA and he throws a 1 hit shutout for 5 innings. ( if I were Detroit I would DNA all their bullpen after that game)
How many Homeruns has Frazier hit sense the AS break 5 at most. Bruce has come up two nights in a row with a chance to put the team ahead and failed both times. (Which isn't a shock) Philips and Saurez are the only consistent hitters on the team. after Votto walks of course

 

[JohnU]

Price again running on empty decides to put Frazier in the 2 spot ... a great place to hit, behind a .215 hitter ... so Votto can surely come up with 2 out, none one ... and get his daily walk.
At least Hamilton isn't batting 9th, which really turned this offense around, didn't it?
PRICE IS FUCKING INEPT.

 

[BuckBearcat]

Makes me wish for the good old Dusty Baker days.

 

[JohnU]

Dusty averaged about 90 wins a year ... Price will be lucky if his team can avoid losing that many this year.
Need to go 11-25 to finish with 99 defeats.
Now, I know that it's easy for us to say the team doesn't have enough talent, but the front office is not going to admit that, so losing 100 games is sort of on the manager.
And the more I watch, the more I agree with that.
A couple of "injuries" and a 6 or 7-man rookie rotation ... I'd say this team competes favorably with 1982.

 

[chico ruiz]

i read an interview on cincinnati.com with castellini that made me think he wasn't fully engaged. his responses seemed unclear and disconnected with the reality of the 2015 - 16 cincinnati reds. i like optimism and idealism. but, it needs to be tempered with a healthy amount of cynicism, humility, acumen (preferably baseball oriented), and realism. he and jocketty are starting to remind me of james dolan and isiah thomas. reds fans are patient. but, we're not that patient, and we're not going to have our collective intelligence insulted too much longer. i think 1507 put it best - and i suspicision we've all had similar thoughts - when he posted:

Who's the Reds minor league chief hitting instructor ? Do you know if the Red have a base approach philosophy, or the ability to tailor instruction to the skills of the player ? That's my point. There isn't a "Reds way", of doing anything, that I'm aware of. The MLB roster and front office "approach" of drafting might have improved over what was the Reds in 2000, but IMO, the minor league development hasn't. In any sensible "rebuild" it needs to start from the beginning- The Reds draft fairly well...but step 2- DEVELOPMENT, isn't there at all...very reactionary, and players don't usually gain skills they didn't already have in the Reds minors. They need work there... It would be nice to have an organizational staff from Rookie Ball through the Big Club, all on the same page, but that usually requires LONGEVITY- that frankly, has to start with longer term ownership, front office and subsequent staff, than the Reds have had. The Cardinals could lose a manager like LaRussa, and never miss him, because they had a replacement in Matheney, that grew up in the system. The Reds have had lots of legacy players that managed and worked front offices and instructor jobs...just not often for the Reds. A clue, there, I think.

this is a fair and balanced comparative assessment based on evidence that goes straight to the heart of reds organizational culture. i would suggest to you, however, that many of the critical posts on this board, and the above post, are not mutually exclusive. there's always some excuse given for lack of continuity within a organization. all these things have to work in tandem. scout, draft, trade, develop, profitability (which includes affordability), future tv deals, etc etc. but, the most important in salary crazed mlb 2015, for mid-market clubs, is the farm system. it's the lifeblood of an organization's continued success or, in the reds case, continued demise.
ped's and escalating salaries (particularly, starting pitching) from the beginning to mid aughts was a harbinger, or bellwether, for more concentration and focus to be put on farm systems. no way (actually impossible) a small or mid market team could compete for the services of clemens, johnson, schilling, mussina, etc etc etc. ten - fifteen years later it's just as bad or worse. james shields will make almost 20 million dollars a year for the next 4 seasons. the yankees still trot cc sabathia out every fifth day, with an era of 5, at nearly a million dollars per start. that's not expensive. it's insane. 1507 references -quite correctly- ped's (mlb's, mlpa's, and media's blind eyes) & escalation of profits, and subsequent salaries. equally insane, and what 1507 doesn't mention is, in the face of this reality, a small or mid market organization does not redouble it's farm system efforts. business as usual was unsustainable for these organizations. in fact, the hierarchy of these clubs would need some tweaking. nothing major, from what i understand, just some refocusing of priorities. i'm not suggesting that you simply flip a switch and voila your minor league system is vibrant and spewing out mlb player after mlb player. it's a process put in place - that is not deviated from - that starts to see results that become more and more consistent.

of course it's not good to lose a pitcher of cueto's talent. but, taken within the context of time elapsing quickly towards the non-waiver trade deadline, it was a good deal. as of now, beyond potential near term mlb pitchers, the reds have some commodities for possible other trades. most exacerbating is the reds knew this day was coming 2 or 3 years ago. on the other hand, the reds wanted to bring a championship to cincinnati. i get it. they sacrificed the near and foreseeable future to make a run at it. i don't think, for a second, that wally (and staff), are complete nitwits. i'm sure they deliberated and discussed the possible fall-out from standing pat. castellini & co were willing to take that risk, and to a certain slight extent, i admire them for it. on the third hand, there are only a handful of teams that have the financial wherewithal to sign the likes of kershaw, sabathia, greinke, and now cueto to multi-year 9 figure contracts. these kind of signings are a hell of a risk and precisely why teams like the reds have to get prospects when the getting is good. there really is no other choice. in my opinion, and it's only my opinion, the reds missed some golden opportunities to maximize on trade chips at their disposal, from 2010 through 2014, to stay competitive. even the usually fence sitting daugherty has had a epiphany, and asks these questions: "is walt jocketty the man to lead the re-boot ? does he have the energy and the vision?" then he sort of half assedly answers his own questions: "essentially, the 2010-15 reds overreached. they were the middle class family, trying to live in indian hill. the piper showed up, as he generally does. the reds tried to win big. I have no problem with their effort. now, they have to try smarter. the cards are smarter than the reds. the pirates are smarter, so are the cubs. each of those organizations have built and continue to build skillfully from within. the reds plugged big holes via trade or free agency. that has to change. can it?" you guys can answer this last question of daugherty's as well as i can.

furthering 1507's critique, and without blaming anybody, all you need do is look at the facts. the players, the various farm team's rosters, prospectuses, mlb viability, etc. as i look at the mlb team salary spectrum, i keep hearing the same adage echoing in my head, 'money doesn't buy championships.' regardless of how the dodgers have accumulated their wealth, they should have 90 wins by now, if available and compare / contrast salary money were the answer to winning. the 'money spent per win' stat has always been fascinating to me. it usually is a good indicator of how good a team's farm system is, and how successful they are at developing their prospects.

dodgers / $300,000,000 / 70 wins

pirates / $88,000,000 / 77 wins

it's a staggering financial disparity. what other conclusion can you come to other than somebody's doing something right in pittsburgh. they have glasgow and taillon. good chance they will both be in the pirates rotation next year. josh bell is the #1 first baseman prospect in mlb. mcutchen was signed to a great team friendly contract. $51 million / 6 years / team option @ $14.5 million for 2018. jay bruce makes more than mccutchen. 4 year / $11 million / for kang. the josh harrison extension has 2 club option years (2019 & 2020). walker is the only contractual question mark after 2016. but, of their top ten prospects, they have five infielders. simply, huntington put together a organizational program and systemically implemented it. accumulation of affordable talent that apparently is developing successfully in a timely fashion. blather?

 

[JohnU]

Money does not buy championships but it helps prevent a team from completely falling off the cliff because the top guys don't bail out when their contracts expire. Even the pitifully-run Angels don't wallow in last place for 6 years in a row.

The Reds are 1-13 over the last 2 weeks and the best guy they have in the rotation got shut out Friday night.

In the short term, it does no good to revamp the dugout staff but it has to be done. It should have been done 6 weeks ago. It has to be done because it sends a message that ineptitude won't be tolerated. If it is not done, it serves to prove that the organizational philosophy in Cincy is to deal with everything in the off-season. Hamilton will be taught to bunt this winter. Bruce will work on his hitting in the off-season. etcetcetcetc.......
The front office can contend that the Reds are failing because they are short of talent, which is admitting that they gave Price a knife to take to the gunfight. Fat chance the front office takes the blame.
In this case, I think Price does deserve the blame. Come 2016, the Reds will lose 95 games and that will be on the front office.
I can't say how to fix it or who ought to do it, but a manager whose team loses 13 out of 14 games can appropriately be termed INEPT. This is the major leagues.

 

[eburg5000]

What I'm trying to figure. Is why did they sign Bailey to that huge contract? Yes he has thrown 2 no hitters. But When they gave him that contract. They were saying to Cueto, Bailey is the guy that we want to keep. Cueto was, and probably will always be the better pitcher by far. This tells me that management is not judging talent correctly.
Also there is a possibility that Bailey may never pitch again. I know that No one could have known this would happened, but this is not the first time the Reds have paid big money, and gotten nothing out of it.

My point is, this is just one of many examples of the Reds front office being clueless

 

[chico ruiz]

you know it's bad when great loyal fans -like hit-n-run- question purchasing season tickets for 2016. this is a real bad omen for the reds because, compared to the rest of the league, reds season ticket packages are affordable. you know it's bad when beat writers -seriously- don't know what to write. you can feel it when you read their articles. i half expect to see a mummified rod serling come crawling out from behind my laptop, a smoldering cigarette stuck to his bottom lip, with theme music, and opening scripting that describes a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. it is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. it is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. this is the dimension of imagination. it is an area which we call the twilight zone. you know this is a bad period for the reds when die hard fans are at each other's throat (figuratively) futilely trying to understand WTF happened.

the reds are a organizational disaster. i'm unable to identify a strong wing of the company. we were told by some writers -earlier in the season- not to invest emotionally in this team. that's nonsense. part of being a fan is being emotionally invested. if not, you're not a fan. btw, daugherty may be the biggest hypocrite i've ever had the displeasure of reading. he's careful not to take a firm stand on any subject. when he occasionally does, he quickly back pedals with mitigations. i'd rather see a phillips / rosecrans dustup, than the load of nothingness the organization (media included) is wheeling out right now. daugherty's supposed to be the guy at the enquirer with the gravitas and juice to call people out. make jocketty answer tough questions. we deserve to know how the reds got to this miserable place directly from the horse's mouth. why weren't moves made 2 or 3 years ago? why do you have a relatively small investment in analytics (a department composed of one man)? can we have a discussion about development (the farm system)? what are the positives right now and for 2016? is there a reds way? if so, would you mind describing it for us? what kind of team do you want to field? mr. eburg's question should also be included. yes, the would-be questions are endless for this unmitigated disaster.

the reds love to preach accountability. alright then, let's start at the top, with specificity, and out loud, please. we've had enough lip service to last the entire history of the franchise. when a team goes from the playoffs to a 100 loss season, within 2 years, the fan base deserves some explanation. the oldest franchise, with thousands of birth to death fans, owes us that. i drop a couple a thousand bucks a year at the reds yard.

are we supposed to go to the ballpark en masse, with 'blank as a fart' expressions, and clap undead-like to the huge 4-finger cartoon hands on the big screen, when the maddeningly insistent 'everybody clap your hands' refrain sounds off? dispense with thinking reds fan, just keep drinking. get moody with hudy. double up on that $20 beer. pay no attention to the pink man behind the window.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Money isn't everything, but it makes all bad things better.

If a team can't sign the right guys for $110M, odds are they will fuck up with twice that much budget too (ask the Redsox)...the difference is, the ability to financially weather spending too much cash on too little talent. Richer teams can eat contracts and sign new players a lot quicker than small pocket teams...Imagine the Reds if Bailey comes back a 4.5 ERA guy, and Votto falls back to what he was last year, forever.

Not many mention it, but even though minor league teams are supposed to operate as individual business entities (handle their own operating expenses) the bonus babies and coaches/instructors/ upper level managers are paid by the big club. The term "investing" in the farm is a literal statement. The farm cost doesn't show up in the MLB payroll, but it's downstream effects are seen in the MLB roster, good or bad. The Reds have drafted lots of pitchers, but don't develop many hitters.

The Reds at $110M isn't among the cheapest, by far. They're getting a lot fewer wins per buck than they should, so it's easy to criticize the ivory tower...although most fans supported those contracts at the time. Fans don't want to see their favorite players walk for more money, even though in lots of cases, it's better business.

Most of my frustration isnt payroll, its how the Reds seem to waste talent and opportunities within their budget.

I find it ironic, that even though it was the veteran starting rotation (IMO, one of the better ones in Reds history, talent wise) that left, it's the offense that beats what's left of the Reds, most often. The reasons, IMO, are collective failures at fundamentally sound offensive philosophy, naturally the result of which is dogshit execution.

Votto is an all-time Reds great. Frazier is a solid player, but not one that can carry a team. Philips is another solid player, IMO, let down by a constantly changing lineup role. Bruce can't be counted on - strictly a once in a while homer, not a regular baserunner moving guy. On a team of high OBP hitters, Bruce would be fine, here, he's just part of the problem. Mesoraco can be what we wished Bruce was, but he's a catcher only that the Reds dugout is blind to playing in the OF occasionally, to get him more AB. It's not like the LF is irreplaceable...it's been the punt position since Dunn, and before that might have to go back to Kal Daniels. It's hostorically a Reds hitters ghost town. Hamilton is a terrific talent, that doesn't know how to hit, but doesn't ATTEMPT bunt or make short stroke contact nearly enough- that isn't all his fault, IMO. I'm not convinced that a winter comment by Larkin has turned on the lights in Cozart, or that Suarez is a full season .290 hitter, but I'm dreading to see how the manager handles their "competition" at SS next spring. Not putting Aroldis Chapman in the rotation because it was an inconvenient decision for others, is one of the biggest wrong turns in this mess, IMO...and one that 95% of fans won't recognize because he's a great closer. The trouble is, he could have been the most dominant LHSP in a generation, and more importantly, would have allowed less opportunity cost in trading for lesser ceiling players. It would have changed the complexion of the Reds entirely.

I'm not sure I'll renew my seats either. I may, but I'm more uncertain than I've been in 15 years.

 

[JohnU]

Lots of fallout with a pitiful baseball team but I would guess that downtown Cincy will still prosper. Folks leave the stadium in the 7th inning and spend an extra $50 in the saloon.
Coming into next year, I am essentially where I was in 2007 ... just wondering if the new right/left/center fielder will be Roy Hobbs, Darnell McDonald, Willy Taveras, Corey Patterson or Xavier Paul.
Anybody can play for a baseball team that loses 100 games.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Not everyone...you and I can't play for the Reds John. At least not anymore... We are sure fire, 1st ballot Disgruntled Fan Hall of Famers though.

 

[JohnU]

I like to look at the sunny side of the game, just pisses me off when it's a Cardinals guy getting to achieve it.
Seriously, the Reds front office has to STOP digging up mediocre players and pitchers and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. The metrics movement in baseball has all but abolished that. A guy who couldn't hit a breaking ball in 2011 is not likely to pull a Roy Hobbs in 2016.