My preseason playoff prediction.

[Olyduck]

So your entire method for predicting future outcomes is just look at last year and throw an extra loss in because of a more challenging OOC game? Neat. Still book marked.

and no not because Auburn is a more challenging opponent. Purdue, Kansas State, Wake Forest or Missouri would be more challenging and I would have picked UW.

 

[WizardHawk]

just pointing out i wasnt doing it to be salty like jon thinks. i just can see it happening like this.

You know, or at least have been told what I look at. Experience and perceived track of the team QB, difficulty and number of road games, overall experience and depth of the defense, depth and experience of the offensive line, and offensive weapons. In that order. I only add or subtract special teams if there is some real reason to. In UW's case that special teams question is worth mentioning and really is the biggest question mark.

You know Browning is a 4th year guy, but he's under a new offensive coordinator. So I'm sure duck fans are writing him off. Please do so.

Road games: Auburn (please, it's not a real neutral game ffs), Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Cal, and WSU. Utah is the most concerning outside of Auburn mostly because it's early in the season and Utah has played them tough in the recent past. They still don't have a QB that anyone worries about and I'm not sold their defense will be up to where it has been in recent seasons.

Stanford? It's a home game bro. Last time UW played Stanford at home the cardinal was ranked #7 and UW beat the absolute shit out of them on national TV. They have Love and I doubt UW keeps him under 100 yards, but they don't have to to still win the game.

You tell us where the weakness is in that team that has them losing 3 looking at the rebuilding of most of the conference and how much farther ahead UW is in building up their program.

 

[Olyduck]

like you said Auburn isnt really a neutral game. Auburn is still going to be a top 10 maybe top 5 team at least preseason. Starting QB back with majority of skill players back. O line will be question. defense bringin back 7 starters is pretty solid

a lot of projections i have seen have Stanford right behind UW in the conference. both ahead of any south teams. Love is the best running back in the country behind arguably the best Oline in the conference and a top 5 nationally. a solid set of WR to support and a decent QB.
Stanford tends to have a god defense most years. last year was average at best. They have 6 starters back on defense though and most are projecting an up tick.

I was using Utah as an example. not that they are bad or anything but just saying it happens all the time where a team out of no where upsets someone. ASU on UW last season. Pitt over Miami. back in the Pete days of USC losing to Oregon State. Im not sure i see a real trap game other than maybe @ Cal right before the Stanford game tho. doesnt mean that an upset cant happen.

Who is writing off Browning? there is no question he is one of the top QB's in the conference and country. no matter who is calling the plays.

why so defensive? like i said not trying to be salty or just throwing out random predictions

 

[WizardHawk]

Salty?

Just gave my brief (for me) breakdown of how I examine a season projection and why I don't see a 9-3 campaign.

The conf as a whole is down. Way down. Grossly down. I just don't see them losing to both Auburn and Stanford, but for sure could see a random dropped game. I have them 11-1 or 10-2 at the worst. It's too experienced and well coached of a team to take that much of a step back.

 

[Good_Code]

Washington will have a good chance to have 7 first team All-Pac12 almost all seniors. Sorry I'm getting this from a Magazine but its better than getting it from just some fan.

AP Myles Gaskin - Sr
OL Trey Adams - Sr
OL Kaleb McGary - Sr
DT Greg Gaines - Sr
LB Ben Burr-Kirven - Sr
CB Byron Murphy
S Taylor Rapp
and 2nd Team - QB Jake Browning - Sr

 

[NolePride]

So your entire method for predicting future outcomes is just look at last year and throw an extra loss in because of a more challenging OOC game? Neat. Still book marked.

Well, I'm not him, but the worry for Washington should be is what
happens if they lose to Auburn?

Their expectations are extremely high. They get whipped Game I
and that could affect their emotion for the rest of the year.

If they lost a second time, their entire season could collapse.

I don't know what will occur but you have to be careful when
dealing with the emotional state of your players.

 

[WizardHawk]

Well, I'm not him, but the worry for Washington should be is what
happens if they lose to Auburn?

Their expectations are extremely high. They get whipped Game I
and that could affect their emotion for the rest of the year.

If they lost a second time, their entire season could collapse.

I don't know what will occur but you have to be careful when
dealing with the emotional state of your players.

Difference between losing and getting whipped, but it's a non con game early on. There is no way that isn't driven into them. Teams lose to high ranked teams in week 1 and overcome it nearly yearly. Losing that game doesn't even eliminate them from playoff contention, nor will it for Auburn if they lose.

There is no other team anything like Auburn on the rest of their schedule. It's a unique game to measure where they are against a big time program outside of the Pac12.

We don't know how UW will match up against SEC size nor their star QB in a game that's essentially in their backyard. What we do know is this team is well coached and doesn't fall apart after losses. They haven't lost focus before. Fastidious attention to detail and fundamentals is really what this staff is all about. They don't have time to get full of themselves after victories, or get all sorry for themselves after losses. It's the hallmark of a Petersen lead team.

 

[FSU rules]

preseason rankings of teams that reached the College Football Playoff:

2014:
#1 Florida State
#2 Alabama
#3 Oregon
#5 Ohio State

2015:
#3 Alabama
#5 Michigan State
#12 Clemson
#19 Oklahoma

2016:
#1 Alabama
#2 Clemson
#6 Ohio State
#14 Washington

2017:
#1 Alabama
#5 Clemson
#7 Oklahoma
#15 Georgia






2014 seems to be an outlier. It seems realistic that there will be 1-2 underdogs reaching the playoff again.





my guess:
Bama
Clemson
Texas
Michigan