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My post Draft Evaluation (Projective analysis)

Stymietee

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Let's start off with the obvious....There is absolutely NO WAY to evaluate a draft beyond letting time reveal how good it was.

That said we can do an early projective analysis on our picks based upon what each player subjectively brings to the team. There are two ways that I can think of in which to do this.

1. The narrower view that subjectively asks, has the overall team gotten better?

Clearly the answer to this question is absolutely "YES" On the defensive side of the ball there were as many questions as there were answers and the organization made moves to at minimum eliminate some of those questions. I liked the Perine selection as a consolation prize to what might have been and believe that he will supplant FR as the starter. We've gotten bigger at WR and perhaps better if JD is healthy and able. We have another year with Cousins at the helm and I believe that there will be competition in camp with our kicker.

2. The broader view asks how does this perceived improvement stack up against the divisional competition?

In order to do this we must take into account where we were against them and where we are perceived to be post draft/ free agency against them. I believe that both the Giants and Philadelphia, like us, have also made moves to challenge Dallas for the top spot in the division. Dallas will likely slip a bit but in my opinion not very much. The law of averages tell me that ONLY one team will win the division and it's going to take at least 11 wins to do this. I cannot justify, beyond, luck or injury any movement beyond where we landed this past season. Third in the division, hoping that the Eagles haven't leapfrogged us to become the team fighting and scratching to gain that wildcard spot.
 

j_y19

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This is going to be a tough division and any one of the teams could win it or finish in the cellar. I expect they will beat up on each other pretty good. The winner of the division may only have 10 wins as a result of this. The early nod probably has to go to the Cowboys just because they are the reigning champs. But they could very easily take a step back. I can see Prescott slipping back his second year as defenses have tape now on him and their offense. Injuries could be a big key here. The team that stays the healthiest could very well end up on top.

As for the Skins, on paper they appear to have helped themselves in some key areas. I say on paper. We all know that we have been winners in the past in the offseason only to not have that translate into wins on the field. The middle of our defense is still a major concern for me. We still seem to not have the rangy FS we need to chase down INTs. And I'm not convinced that Cravens can make the transition to safety. We have no proven NT.
 

SoCalWizFan

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This is going to be a tough division and any one of the teams could win it or finish in the cellar. I expect they will beat up on each other pretty good. The winner of the division may only have 10 wins as a result of this. The early nod probably has to go to the Cowboys just because they are the reigning champs. But they could very easily take a step back. I can see Prescott slipping back his second year as defenses have tape now on him and their offense. Injuries could be a big key here. The team that stays the healthiest could very well end up on top.

As for the Skins, on paper they appear to have helped themselves in some key areas. I say on paper. We all know that we have been winners in the past in the offseason only to not have that translate into wins on the field. The middle of our defense is still a major concern for me. We still seem to not have the rangy FS we need to chase down INTs. And I'm not convinced that Cravens can make the transition to safety. We have no proven NT.

I am not so worried about the Skins catching the Boys so much as them improving & hopefully getting a playoff spot. The major variables IMO that will make the difference are:

1. Contributions of Pryor & Doctson to make up for the loss of Garcon & Jackson
2. Ability to improve in the red zone & short game situations with addition of Perine & perhaps change in scheme w/somewhat improved blocking.
3. Ability to at least improve in their run defense - not to be great but just better (very attainable)
4. At least a somewhat improved pass rush - Smith getting back to his rookie form would help a lot.

Replacing some of the stiffs that they had on defense should at least be a good start. Some of those guys should not even have been in the NFL.
 

deanpet21

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I think Dallas has taken a huge step back. They lost a lot of players. Their oline lost two starters. I can not see them winning 13 games again this year. The Giants have improved on offense but there oline is the worst in the division by far. Plus I still don't see a running game from this team. The Eagles should be last in this division. They have the worst defense in the division. A lot is going to be put on Wentz.

As far as us, we have improved. I think we improved in every area on defense. Plus our red zone offense got a big jolt by adding bigger WR and RB who looks promising. Yes this is a strong division I see everyone competing except the Eagles. KC is going to have to prove that he is worth the huge long term deal that he is seeking. If we convert TD's in the redzone we are going to be a good team this year.
 

skinsdad62

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here is my view of the picks

1) Allen , de excellent pick . i expect it will take some time to put up great numbers , but as a rookie i expect leonard williams rookie year type numbers

2) ryan anderson OLB , TM with a little more bang . solid guy tough as nails probably a starter next year

3) Fabian moreau cb a gamble pick here that should pay off . i expect a fuller type learning curve and mos likely a PUP visit even IR
4) samaje perine RB perhaps the best value pick of our draft . i expect he will work short yardage at first and once he learns to use his blocks at a pro level he can be a contributor in our backfield . i expect fat rob and CT to be the top 2 backs
5) jeremy sprinkle TE , at best he could push paul of the roster (if he can play teams ) and replace VD by year 3 . at worst he is a PS candidate
6) Chase roullier C/G competition for kujo long term , short term , most likely an austin reiter type guy who will spend time on the PS. actually like this pick , seems like good value
6) robert davis WR ga state , most likely a PS guy . at his best he sends ryan grant packing . this is another good value pick here because he has great measurables and needs polish at the route running and pro level has a chance
7) josh harvey clemons S /Lb /DB this guy at his best could be a diamond in the rough in the jarret mold with more size . if he can stay off the weed . otherwise he was worth the flier based on height /weight / speed to plat special teams and in some sub packages

7) joshua hosley cb/s this was a flier guy in the purest sense and in my opinion well worth the pick . yes , he has had 2 acls , however his speed is good and he has slot potential / could be a ST/PS squad guy

i like this draft . we took some chances , but i feel they were well thought out ones .

some choices wont pan out but i like the attempts
 

deanpet21

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here is my view of the picks

1) Allen , de excellent pick . i expect it will take some time to put up great numbers , but as a rookie i expect leonard williams rookie year type numbers

2) ryan anderson OLB , TM with a little more bang . solid guy tough as nails probably a starter next year

3) Fabian moreau cb a gamble pick here that should pay off . i expect a fuller type learning curve and mos likely a PUP visit even IR
4) samaje perine RB perhaps the best value pick of our draft . i expect he will work short yardage at first and once he learns to use his blocks at a pro level he can be a contributor in our backfield . i expect fat rob and CT to be the top 2 backs
5) jeremy sprinkle TE , at best he could push paul of the roster (if he can play teams ) and replace VD by year 3 . at worst he is a PS candidate
6) Chase roullier C/G competition for kujo long term , short term , most likely an austin reiter type guy who will spend time on the PS. actually like this pick , seems like good value
6) robert davis WR ga state , most likely a PS guy . at his best he sends ryan grant packing . this is another good value pick here because he has great measurables and needs polish at the route running and pro level has a chance
7) josh harvey clemons S /Lb /DB this guy at his best could be a diamond in the rough in the jarret mold with more size . if he can stay off the weed . otherwise he was worth the flier based on height /weight / speed to plat special teams and in some sub packages

7) joshua hosley cb/s this was a flier guy in the purest sense and in my opinion well worth the pick . yes , he has had 2 acls , however his speed is good and he has slot potential / could be a ST/PS squad guy

i like this draft . we took some chances , but i feel they were well thought out ones .

some choices wont pan out but i like the attempts


How is Moreau a gamble when he only has a torn pec? He could be back for October. Plus it makes Breeland expendable in FA. Even if he has a good season. Why should a torn pec scare anybody? Fuller had a much major injury and he also went 3rd round. Moreau is actually the safer pick.
 

gkekoa

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here is my view of the picks

1) Allen , de excellent pick . i expect it will take some time to put up great numbers , but as a rookie i expect leonard williams rookie year type numbers

2) ryan anderson OLB , TM with a little more bang . solid guy tough as nails probably a starter next year

3) Fabian moreau cb a gamble pick here that should pay off . i expect a fuller type learning curve and mos likely a PUP visit even IR
4) samaje perine RB perhaps the best value pick of our draft . i expect he will work short yardage at first and once he learns to use his blocks at a pro level he can be a contributor in our backfield . i expect fat rob and CT to be the top 2 backs
5) jeremy sprinkle TE , at best he could push paul of the roster (if he can play teams ) and replace VD by year 3 . at worst he is a PS candidate
6) Chase roullier C/G competition for kujo long term , short term , most likely an austin reiter type guy who will spend time on the PS. actually like this pick , seems like good value
6) robert davis WR ga state , most likely a PS guy . at his best he sends ryan grant packing . this is another good value pick here because he has great measurables and needs polish at the route running and pro level has a chance
7) josh harvey clemons S /Lb /DB this guy at his best could be a diamond in the rough in the jarret mold with more size . if he can stay off the weed . otherwise he was worth the flier based on height /weight / speed to plat special teams and in some sub packages

7) joshua hosley cb/s this was a flier guy in the purest sense and in my opinion well worth the pick . yes , he has had 2 acls , however his speed is good and he has slot potential / could be a ST/PS squad guy

i like this draft . we took some chances , but i feel they were well thought out ones .

some choices wont pan out but i like the attempts

I like the analysis Dad. I expect Allen to be much better than Williams. He was much better at the collegiate level, best player in the nation.

The numbers may not show it at first because Allen won't be playing beside Wilkerson.
 

skinsdad62

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I like the analysis Dad. I expect Allen to be much better than Williams. He was much better at the collegiate level, best player in the nation.

The numbers may not show it at first because Allen won't be playing beside Wilkerson.
i only said year one . i think the kid will push for alot of PBS in his career
 

skinsdad62

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How is Moreau a gamble when he only has a torn pec? He could be back for October. Plus it makes Breeland expendable in FA. Even if he has a good season. Why should a torn pec scare anybody? Fuller had a much major injury and he also went 3rd round. Moreau is actually the safer pick.
fuller was a gamble pick as well and the pec could get re torn again as it did with rak on 3 occasions
 

Ruzious

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I think Moreau is a risk because he made so few plays in college and had a lot of penalties, and he's got very little experience at CB - starting out as a RB and having an injury in 2015. He's a guy who's going to need to get as many reps as possible, so hopefully the torn pec doesn't set him back farther. Seems like he's a longshot to be useful as a rookie. Honestly, I was not real happy with that pick - though he's apparently an outstanding athlete and certainly has the size.
 

Sportster 72

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HEY!!! Don't forget #88 Levern Jacobs. I have to route for our kids. :D :yes:
 

deanpet21

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I think Moreau is a risk because he made so few plays in college and had a lot of penalties, and he's got very little experience at CB - starting out as a RB and having an injury in 2015. He's a guy who's going to need to get as many reps as possible, so hopefully the torn pec doesn't set him back farther. Seems like he's a longshot to be useful as a rookie. Honestly, I was not real happy with that pick - though he's apparently an outstanding athlete and certainly has the size.

Then why was Moreau a first round talent if he didnt have the pec injury? Philly took a shot with Jones with a Achilles injury. I know he is the better Cb but I would take a shot at a CB with a pec injury over a Achilles.
 
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skinsdad62

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Then why was Moreau a first round talent if he didnt have the pec injury? Philly took a shot with Jones with a Achilles injury. I know he is the better Cb but I would take a shot at a CB with a pec injury over a Achilles.
he may have been a first round talent or then again he may have not
 

deanpet21

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he may have been a first round talent or then again he may have not

Point being with both injuries I would take the pec over the achillies. Analysts said both Cb's were first rounders'.
 

ehb5

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here is my view of the picks

1) Allen , de excellent pick . i expect it will take some time to put up great numbers , but as a rookie i expect leonard williams rookie year type numbers

2) ryan anderson OLB , TM with a little more bang . solid guy tough as nails probably a starter next year

3) Fabian moreau cb a gamble pick here that should pay off . i expect a fuller type learning curve and mos likely a PUP visit even IR
4) samaje perine RB perhaps the best value pick of our draft . i expect he will work short yardage at first and once he learns to use his blocks at a pro level he can be a contributor in our backfield . i expect fat rob and CT to be the top 2 backs
5) jeremy sprinkle TE , at best he could push paul of the roster (if he can play teams ) and replace VD by year 3 . at worst he is a PS candidate
6) Chase roullier C/G competition for kujo long term , short term , most likely an austin reiter type guy who will spend time on the PS. actually like this pick , seems like good value
6) robert davis WR ga state , most likely a PS guy . at his best he sends ryan grant packing . this is another good value pick here because he has great measurables and needs polish at the route running and pro level has a chance
7) josh harvey clemons S /Lb /DB this guy at his best could be a diamond in the rough in the jarret mold with more size . if he can stay off the weed . otherwise he was worth the flier based on height /weight / speed to plat special teams and in some sub packages

7) joshua hosley cb/s this was a flier guy in the purest sense and in my opinion well worth the pick . yes , he has had 2 acls , however his speed is good and he has slot potential / could be a ST/PS squad guy

i like this draft . we took some chances , but i feel they were well thought out ones .

some choices wont pan out but i like the attempts

Combine Warrior :thumb:
 

Ruzious

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he may have been a first round talent or then again he may have not
Yup, and he may be a first round athlete but not a first round cornerback. Either way, I doubt he's useful as a rookie. Then again, I don't think Eli Apple's all that good a CB - despite being a great athlete, and he was a fairly high first rounder for the Gintz last year.
 
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