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Washington Nationals top Buster's top 10 ranks of MLB rotations - ESPN
By Buster Olney
Part 1 of 2
Max Scherzer remains unsigned, as does James Shields, and executives from all teams continue to circle the market, monitoring the asking price on the likes of Cole Hamels and others.
But for most of the 30 teams, what you see is what you get, and their winter work is just about complete, which makes this a good time for our annual top 10 team rankings.
Today we begin with the top 10 rotations, based on input from talent evaluators around the majors:
1. Washington Nationals
Some evaluators believe the Dodgers should be No. 1, given the presence of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke at the front of the rotation and some interesting investments at the back.
But the Nationals' depth is staggering. Four of the top 16 qualified NL pitchers in terms of ERA in 2014 were in the Washington rotation, and the one Nats guy not in that 16, Gio Gonzalez, had a respectable 3.57 ERA. Washington's rotation ERA of 3.04 was the best in the majors last year, and the group held opposing hitters to a .657 OPS, also the best mark in the bigs.
Jordan Zimmermann is headed toward a nine-figure payday, thanks to his dominance, and somehow Stephen Strasburg has become underrated because of the perception of what he hasn't accomplished. This past season, Strasburg walked just 43 batters and struck out 242, which ranks him in the top six in the majors in both strikeouts per nine innings and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only 10 pitchers in the big leagues held opposing hitters to a lower OPS than Tanner Roark (.632), and Doug Fister, whose exceptional athleticism seems to manifest itself more and more as he gets older, allowed only 24 walks in 164 innings.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw posted a 1.77 ERA in 2014, more than a quarter of a run better than any other qualified starting pitcher, and Greinke ranked 13th. The rest of the rotation could be pretty good, but there is some daunting injury history. Hyun-Jin Ryu has had stints on the disabled list the past couple seasons, Brandon McCarthy has had just one season of more than 25 starts, and Brett Anderson has 52 starts in the past five years.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
Lance Lynn has climbed into the upper echelon of pitchers, and that is a difference-maker in these rankings because of the elite depth he provides in the Cardinals' rotation. Last year, Lynn allowed just 13 homers and had a better ERA (2.74) than Alex Cobb, Madison Bumgarner or Jeff Samardzija, and Lynn, perennial Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright and John Lackey provide a strong core amid some questions about the other spots in the rotation, such as whether Michael Wacha will be able to come back from his shoulder trouble and whether Carlos Martinez can build enough of a three-pitch repertoire to win a spot. Marco Gonzales is another starting option.
Here's the big question about the Cardinals' rotation: Is Wainwright going to be OK? Elbow trouble affected him at the end of last season, and though he was able to take the ball, he was diminished in the playoffs against the Dodgers. If we've learned one thing about pitching injuries in recent years, it's that those who suffer problems one year are at heightened risk for setback the following season.
The Cardinals aren't going to telegraph their concerns, but if they pursue either Shields or Scherzer in the days ahead, this would be the surest sign they have doubts about the fragility of this group. Either way, the St. Louis starters figure to be among the best.
4. Seattle Mariners
We all know about Felix Hernandez, who has finished first or second in the AL Cy Young voting three times, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who actually fared better in FIP (fielding independent pitching) in 2014 than in 2013. But what separates the Mariners from a lot of other teams is the emergence of James Paxton, who started 13 games the past season and allowed only three homers in 74 innings, with a 3.04 ERA. Seattle also has traded for J.A. Happ, who could be well-served by the Safeco Field dimensions, as Chris Young was last year. Roenis Elias could be the No. 5 starter for the Mariners, but they will consider alternatives as well.
5. New York Mets
Matt Harvey was out all of the past season, following Tommy John surgery, and yet the Mets' starters still had a respectable 3.66 ERA, thanks in part to Jacob deGrom's developing into one of the best rookie starters in recent years and the strong progress of Zack Wheeler in the second half, when he posted a 3.09 ERA. Now Harvey is due back, and if Harvey comes even close to what he was before he got hurt in 2013, the Mets' group has a chance to develop into the best in the majors. Some combination of Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colon and Rafael Montero will round out the Mets' rotation, and 22-year-old top prospect Noah Syndergaard is likely to reach the majors at some point this year.
6. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have ranked higher than this in seasons past, but there are two major X factors:
A. As of today, Scherzer is not part of the group, and some folks who've dealt with the Tigers are convinced Detroit has moved on and is preparing to go with its current five-man group, rather than re-sign Scherzer.
B. Justin Verlander is coming off a season in which he allowed an opponents' average of .275, the highest against him in any full season. The steady decline in his average fastball velocity -- from 95.6 mph in 2009 to 93.1 in 2014 -- has been documented.
But keep in mind Verlander required offseason surgery on his core last winter, and because of that, he could not go through his regular winter regimen of strength training with his legs and core. Verlander never used that as an excuse, but it might be part of the reason he didn't have his best velocity until the end of the season. Verlander is already at the Tigers' camp in Lakeland, Florida, and has resumed his old routine.
Verlander has thrown more than 30,000 pitches in regular-season games in his career, and inevitably, that workload will manifest itself; it might be that Verlander's days as one of the two or three best pitchers in the majors are over. But if Verlander returns to being a good pitcher, in the same rotation as David Price, Anibal Sanchez and the newly acquired Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene, Detroit could have an elite rotation again.
7. Tampa Bay Rays
David Price had been the leader of this group for years, but Alex Cobb is a worthy heir, and as usual, there are high-end talents throughout the Rays' rotation, which ranked seventh in the majors last year. Chris Archer held opposing hitters to a .650 OPS, Drew Smyly dominated after joining the Rays and demonstrated he was the right guy to target in the Price trade, and Jake Odorizzi had an OK season in his first full year in a big league rotation. Meanwhile, Matt Moore, currently out following Tommy John surgery, recently told the Albuquerque Journal his goal is to return sometime prior to the All-Star break.
8. Chicago White Sox
Maybe this will be the year Chris Sale wins his first Cy Young Award, though more could be on the way; only three pitchers allowed a lower opponents' OPS last season. The 25-year-old Jose Quintana allowed just 10 homers and 52 walks in 200 1/3 innings, and now the White Sox have Jeff Samardzija to be their rotation plow horse, an innings-eater, in his last season before free agency. John Danks is the No. 4 starter, and at some point in 2015, prospect Carlos Rodon, the third pick in last summer's draft, could join the White Sox rotation, given that he reached Triple-A by the end of 2014. The improvement in Rodon's command will be the most significant question about his development.
9. San Diego Padres
New GM A.J. Preller talked about a number of possible deals involving his starting pitchers, but in the end, the Padres used the depth in their minor league system and cash flexibility to upgrade their lineup and keep their rotation intact. San Diego ranked ninth in starters' ERA last season, despite the fact that Andrew Cashner, the Padres' Opening Day guy, was limited to 19 starts. Ian Kennedy righted his career in his first full season with the Padres, and Tyson Ross' slider/sinker combination was one of the best in the majors a year ago. Odrisamer Despaigne threw well in his first 16 starts in the majors last year, with a 3.36 ERA, and the No. 5 spot and depth will be filled by the likes of Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson and Robbie Erlin.
10. Cleveland Indians
This would seem an aggressive ranking for the Indians, who finished 18th in starters' ERA last season, but after talking with rival evaluators, I think this spot might be too low for the Indians, whose staff ranked third in the majors in ERA in the second half. They just kept getting better and better, with Corey Kluber becoming a Cy Young Award winner at the front end of the rotation. The difference-maker could be Carlos Carrasco, as he was in the second half last season, when he lowered his ERA by two runs. Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar are high-end talents, and the Indians are hopeful Gavin Floyd can help after being limited to just 14 starts combined in 2013 and 2014.
By Buster Olney
Part 1 of 2
Max Scherzer remains unsigned, as does James Shields, and executives from all teams continue to circle the market, monitoring the asking price on the likes of Cole Hamels and others.
But for most of the 30 teams, what you see is what you get, and their winter work is just about complete, which makes this a good time for our annual top 10 team rankings.
Today we begin with the top 10 rotations, based on input from talent evaluators around the majors:
1. Washington Nationals
Some evaluators believe the Dodgers should be No. 1, given the presence of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke at the front of the rotation and some interesting investments at the back.
But the Nationals' depth is staggering. Four of the top 16 qualified NL pitchers in terms of ERA in 2014 were in the Washington rotation, and the one Nats guy not in that 16, Gio Gonzalez, had a respectable 3.57 ERA. Washington's rotation ERA of 3.04 was the best in the majors last year, and the group held opposing hitters to a .657 OPS, also the best mark in the bigs.
Jordan Zimmermann is headed toward a nine-figure payday, thanks to his dominance, and somehow Stephen Strasburg has become underrated because of the perception of what he hasn't accomplished. This past season, Strasburg walked just 43 batters and struck out 242, which ranks him in the top six in the majors in both strikeouts per nine innings and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only 10 pitchers in the big leagues held opposing hitters to a lower OPS than Tanner Roark (.632), and Doug Fister, whose exceptional athleticism seems to manifest itself more and more as he gets older, allowed only 24 walks in 164 innings.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw posted a 1.77 ERA in 2014, more than a quarter of a run better than any other qualified starting pitcher, and Greinke ranked 13th. The rest of the rotation could be pretty good, but there is some daunting injury history. Hyun-Jin Ryu has had stints on the disabled list the past couple seasons, Brandon McCarthy has had just one season of more than 25 starts, and Brett Anderson has 52 starts in the past five years.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
Lance Lynn has climbed into the upper echelon of pitchers, and that is a difference-maker in these rankings because of the elite depth he provides in the Cardinals' rotation. Last year, Lynn allowed just 13 homers and had a better ERA (2.74) than Alex Cobb, Madison Bumgarner or Jeff Samardzija, and Lynn, perennial Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright and John Lackey provide a strong core amid some questions about the other spots in the rotation, such as whether Michael Wacha will be able to come back from his shoulder trouble and whether Carlos Martinez can build enough of a three-pitch repertoire to win a spot. Marco Gonzales is another starting option.
Here's the big question about the Cardinals' rotation: Is Wainwright going to be OK? Elbow trouble affected him at the end of last season, and though he was able to take the ball, he was diminished in the playoffs against the Dodgers. If we've learned one thing about pitching injuries in recent years, it's that those who suffer problems one year are at heightened risk for setback the following season.
The Cardinals aren't going to telegraph their concerns, but if they pursue either Shields or Scherzer in the days ahead, this would be the surest sign they have doubts about the fragility of this group. Either way, the St. Louis starters figure to be among the best.
4. Seattle Mariners
We all know about Felix Hernandez, who has finished first or second in the AL Cy Young voting three times, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who actually fared better in FIP (fielding independent pitching) in 2014 than in 2013. But what separates the Mariners from a lot of other teams is the emergence of James Paxton, who started 13 games the past season and allowed only three homers in 74 innings, with a 3.04 ERA. Seattle also has traded for J.A. Happ, who could be well-served by the Safeco Field dimensions, as Chris Young was last year. Roenis Elias could be the No. 5 starter for the Mariners, but they will consider alternatives as well.
5. New York Mets
Matt Harvey was out all of the past season, following Tommy John surgery, and yet the Mets' starters still had a respectable 3.66 ERA, thanks in part to Jacob deGrom's developing into one of the best rookie starters in recent years and the strong progress of Zack Wheeler in the second half, when he posted a 3.09 ERA. Now Harvey is due back, and if Harvey comes even close to what he was before he got hurt in 2013, the Mets' group has a chance to develop into the best in the majors. Some combination of Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colon and Rafael Montero will round out the Mets' rotation, and 22-year-old top prospect Noah Syndergaard is likely to reach the majors at some point this year.
6. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have ranked higher than this in seasons past, but there are two major X factors:
A. As of today, Scherzer is not part of the group, and some folks who've dealt with the Tigers are convinced Detroit has moved on and is preparing to go with its current five-man group, rather than re-sign Scherzer.
B. Justin Verlander is coming off a season in which he allowed an opponents' average of .275, the highest against him in any full season. The steady decline in his average fastball velocity -- from 95.6 mph in 2009 to 93.1 in 2014 -- has been documented.
But keep in mind Verlander required offseason surgery on his core last winter, and because of that, he could not go through his regular winter regimen of strength training with his legs and core. Verlander never used that as an excuse, but it might be part of the reason he didn't have his best velocity until the end of the season. Verlander is already at the Tigers' camp in Lakeland, Florida, and has resumed his old routine.
Verlander has thrown more than 30,000 pitches in regular-season games in his career, and inevitably, that workload will manifest itself; it might be that Verlander's days as one of the two or three best pitchers in the majors are over. But if Verlander returns to being a good pitcher, in the same rotation as David Price, Anibal Sanchez and the newly acquired Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene, Detroit could have an elite rotation again.
7. Tampa Bay Rays
David Price had been the leader of this group for years, but Alex Cobb is a worthy heir, and as usual, there are high-end talents throughout the Rays' rotation, which ranked seventh in the majors last year. Chris Archer held opposing hitters to a .650 OPS, Drew Smyly dominated after joining the Rays and demonstrated he was the right guy to target in the Price trade, and Jake Odorizzi had an OK season in his first full year in a big league rotation. Meanwhile, Matt Moore, currently out following Tommy John surgery, recently told the Albuquerque Journal his goal is to return sometime prior to the All-Star break.
8. Chicago White Sox
Maybe this will be the year Chris Sale wins his first Cy Young Award, though more could be on the way; only three pitchers allowed a lower opponents' OPS last season. The 25-year-old Jose Quintana allowed just 10 homers and 52 walks in 200 1/3 innings, and now the White Sox have Jeff Samardzija to be their rotation plow horse, an innings-eater, in his last season before free agency. John Danks is the No. 4 starter, and at some point in 2015, prospect Carlos Rodon, the third pick in last summer's draft, could join the White Sox rotation, given that he reached Triple-A by the end of 2014. The improvement in Rodon's command will be the most significant question about his development.
9. San Diego Padres
New GM A.J. Preller talked about a number of possible deals involving his starting pitchers, but in the end, the Padres used the depth in their minor league system and cash flexibility to upgrade their lineup and keep their rotation intact. San Diego ranked ninth in starters' ERA last season, despite the fact that Andrew Cashner, the Padres' Opening Day guy, was limited to 19 starts. Ian Kennedy righted his career in his first full season with the Padres, and Tyson Ross' slider/sinker combination was one of the best in the majors a year ago. Odrisamer Despaigne threw well in his first 16 starts in the majors last year, with a 3.36 ERA, and the No. 5 spot and depth will be filled by the likes of Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson and Robbie Erlin.
10. Cleveland Indians
This would seem an aggressive ranking for the Indians, who finished 18th in starters' ERA last season, but after talking with rival evaluators, I think this spot might be too low for the Indians, whose staff ranked third in the majors in ERA in the second half. They just kept getting better and better, with Corey Kluber becoming a Cy Young Award winner at the front end of the rotation. The difference-maker could be Carlos Carrasco, as he was in the second half last season, when he lowered his ERA by two runs. Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar are high-end talents, and the Indians are hopeful Gavin Floyd can help after being limited to just 14 starts combined in 2013 and 2014.
