Mike Minor or Julio Teheran

[Reverend Jim]

Who would you keep for next year.

It's a 12 team H2H 7x7 league (we added QS & hits allowed) with no limit on how long you can keep a player.

Looking at my team I will only be able to keep one of them.
I think I know who I would keep but I'd like some other opinions.

 

[Chef99]

Who would you keep for next year.

It's a 12 team H2H 7x7 league (we added QS & hits allowed) with no limit on how long you can keep a player.

Looking at my team I will only be able to keep one of them.
I think I know who I would keep but I'd like some other opinions.

That's a lousy decision to have to make, but I think i'd have to go with Minor. He's pretty much established himself as a stud.

 

[tlance]

That's a lousy decision to have to make, but I think i'd have to go with Minor. He's pretty much established himself as a stud.

I agree. Teheran has a higher ceiling, but also the greater potential for flaming out in a couple years. Minor is safe and should be a top 15 SP for a long time to come.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Not even close for me. Minor.

 

[Reverend Jim]

I was already leaning towards Minor, but since Teheran has put up almost identical numbers this year I started second guessing myself. Wainwright is the other starter I'm keeping.

 

[Philabuster5]

I'll throw one vote in for Teheran. When you look at past 5 months, Teheran significantly better, esp in the k%. I like his upside better too.
I'm not all-in on him, but I think he'll likely outperform Minor ongoing.
(I still prefer Cole, Wheeler likely to both as an example)

Not to be different haha, but I think it's worth consideration

 

[TKOSpikes]

I'd just like to see Teheran get through a start without a walk... or 3. And I usually go with the lefty in an either/or situation.

 

[Chef99]

I'd just like to see Teheran get through a start without a walk... or 3. And I usually go with the lefty in an either/or situation.

Yep, going with the lefty was one of my thoughts as well.

 

[Reverend Jim]

I'll throw one vote in for Teheran. When you look at past 5 months, Teheran significantly better, esp in the k%.

Teheran's K/9 this year is 8.26 compared to Minor's 7.97 which is close, but Minor had a higher k/9 in the minors. And while the K's are nice, we also count hits allowed.

Minor's h/9 is 7.61 compared to an 8.42 for Teheran. Even with the horrible first half Minor had last year his h/9 was still only 7.58.

The other thing that stands out with minor for me is his BAA which is .230 and was .232 last year. That and his h/9 show me 2 years of consistancy.

There are some negatives about Teheran. First off, this is just his first year in the majors. Minors got almost 500 innings pitched so he's got his growing pains out of the way and showed he can adjust and improve at the ML level. Teheran is having a great season but he also had a great season his first year at AAA. In his second year at AAA he put up an ERA over 5.

Seceond is, while his ERA sits at 3.01 his FIP is a 3.75. While the difference isn't that drastic it still suggests some luck fell his way.

Teheran my have a higher ceiling but it's not that much higher. Granted all young pitchers are a crap shoot but if given a choice between the two, I'd rather take the guy who has shown me some consistancy even if there is a chance the other guy can be better.

On a side note, while Minor has done a good job of lowing the number of HR's allowed, both he and Teheran have to improve on this.

 

[tlance]

Teheran's K/9 this year is 8.26 compared to Minor's 7.97 which is close, but Minor had a higher k/9 in the minors. And while the K's are nice, we also count hits allowed.

Minor's h/9 is 7.61 compared to an 8.42 for Teheran. Even with the horrible first half Minor had last year his h/9 was still only 7.58.

The other thing that stands out with minor for me is his BAA which is .230 and was .232 last year. That and his h/9 show me 2 years of consistancy.

There are some negatives about Teheran. First off, this is just his first year in the majors. Minors got almost 500 innings pitched so he's got his growing pains out of the way and showed he can adjust and improve at the ML level. Teheran is having a great season but he also had a great season his first year at AAA. In his second year at AAA he put up an ERA over 5.

Seceond is, while his ERA sits at 3.01 his FIP is a 3.75. While the difference isn't that drastic it still suggests some luck fell his way.

Teheran my have a higher ceiling but it's not that much higher. Granted all young pitchers are a crap shoot but if given a choice between the two, I'd rather take the guy who has shown me some consistancy even if there is a chance the other guy can be better.

On a side note, while Minor has done a good job of lowing the number of HR's allowed, both he and Teheran have to improve on this.

I would not worry too much about Teheran's 5+ ERA in AAA last year as that can be attributed to a mechanical change that did not take well. What I would worry about is the potential for elbow/shoulder issues down the road as his mechanics seem to put more stress on his arm than is necessary.

 

[Philabuster5]

I was just looking at 5 months data. Teheran has gotten better as year has gone on; Minor worse.
Can't fault picking Minor... I just think the other way.

 

[tlance]

I was just looking at 5 months data. Teheran has gotten better as year has gone on; Minor worse.
Can't fault picking Minor... I just think the other way.

They are both excellent keeper options and guys to target in the mid-rounds of next year's redraft formats. This is a good problem to have.

 

[Reverend Jim]

I was just looking at 5 months data. Teheran has gotten better as year has gone on; Minor worse.
Can't fault picking Minor... I just think the other way.

He also had 4 & 5 walks in May/June but had 9 in July & 16 in August, and did not lower his hits allowed in the process. Plus his whip has gone up for 3 straight months.
Is Teheran good...........yes. The real question is how many times can he get away with walking 16 guys in a month and come out of it with only a 2.8 ERA?

I may prefer Minor over Teheran, but I don't trust either of them.
I'd personally love to trade both of them for a big bat.

 

[Philabuster5]

That's the best idea Jim.
Both of their values are pretty good right now.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I may prefer Minor over Teheran, but I don't trust either of them.
I'd personally love to trade both of them for a big bat.

I trust Minor, after bending my trust this year (traded him), thinking Matt Cain was a better option... but I agree, if you can get a nice bat for either/both, that is a much better option.

 

[DragonfromTO]

You're talking about a 22 year old pitcher who's walked 2.3 per 9 on the season and his walk rate is a concern for you?

 

[Reverend Jim]

You're talking about a 22 year old pitcher who's walked 2.3 per 9 on the season and his walk rate is a concern for you?

That 2.3 is for the season but they've gone up for the past 2 months. If that continues over a full season you're looking at something closer to 3.0 which is what it was above A ball.

 

[DragonfromTO]

That 2.3 is for the season but they've gone up for the past 2 months. If that continues over a full season you're looking at something closer to 3.0 which is what it was above A ball.

But is there really a strong reason to think that the last 2 months are a better indication of what to expect going forward than the first 3 months (or the combined 5 months)?

 

[Reverend Jim]

But is there really a strong reason to think that the last 2 months are a better indication of what to expect going forward than the first 3 months (or the combined 5 months)?

Statistically speaking yes. He had a nice start but what you have to remember is, he is a rookie. He did well the first time through the league, but if you look at his FIP he's had a little luck on his side. The past two months he still defied his FIP, but he's added additional walks while maintaining his ERA. Either somethings got to give or he's good enough (or lucky enough) to keep things going. Maybe I'm wrong but I see regression coming next season and see Teheran putting up numbers closer to what Minor put up last season. A higher FIP plus increased walks going into the sophmore slump season just doesn't make me feel comfortable.

Now there are exceptions and pitchers that buck the trend and maybe Teheran is one of them, but if I had to place money on which guy I thought would have the better season next year...I'd go with Minor.
Long term it could be Teheran, but on my fantasy teams pitchers have a shelf life of about 3 years max. Unlike hitters I'm not looking at who's gonna be the better pitcher in five years, I'm looking at who's gonna be better the next two years.