Math is a Wonderful Thing

[averagejoe]

Was looking at some of 2015's fantasy rankings. Comparing how they were ranked in preseason and then how players finished. (Based on "consensus" rankings from FantasyPros compared to standard scoring.)

QB
Only 6 of the top 12 QB drafted first overall finished in the top 12. Half.
The biggest jumps came from Bortles, Fitzpatrick and Cousins who weren't even ranked as QB2 backups.
The average draft/positional for the top finishers: 14.2 *

Spoiler: Asterisk

So in other words, if you lined up all of the available QB that were ranked in preseason - not in comparison or intermixed with other positions - the average rank by position was 14.2 for all QB. This same average applies to all the positions below too.

The biggest drop was Romo (ranked 9th) who finished 39th. Yes, I know he was hurt.

RB
Only 3 of the top 12 RB drafted first overall finished in the top 12. 25%
Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Lamar Miller are the only 3. Honorable mention goes to Jeremy Hill who just missed by 2 fantasy points.
The average draft/positional rank for the top finishers: 25.2
The biggest drop was Lynch (5th) who finished 51st. Yes, I know he was hurt.

TE
You'd think that with a limited amount of talent at the TE position (like with QB), that this would be more predictable? Not so much. Half of the first 12 TE drafted finished in the top 12. The biggest jump came from Gary Barnidge (ranked 50th) and finished 4th.
The average draft/positional rank for the top finishers: 17.7
The biggest drop seems to be Jimmy Graham (2nd) who finished 29th. Honorable mention goes to Dwayne Allen (ranked 13th) who finished 58th.

WR
I see a pattern here. Again, half of the first 12 WR drafted actually finished in the top 12. Honorable mention goes to Demaryius Thomas who finished 13th by 6 fantasy points.
The average draft/positional rank for the top finishers: 17.7
The biggest drop looks to be Dez Bryant (2nd) who finished 72nd. Yes, I know he was hurt.

D/ST
Finally, our prognostications are better. 75% of the first 12 D/ST drafted actually finished in the top 12. The biggest jump was the Steelers ranked 25th in preseason and finished 8th.
The average draft/positional rank for the top finishers: 9.6
The biggest drop was the Bills (ranked 2nd) who finished 20th.

Before I go into my next segment. Please enjoy this brief musical interlude.

​

Rookies
Hate them. But I was surprised.

QB
In preseason, Winston was ranked 24th. He finished 14th.
Mariota was ranked 23rd and finished 22nd.

RB
Of all of the rookies that were ranked in preseason (14 of them), they had an average ranking of 49.1
They finished with an average rank of 49.7.
The unranked rookie that finished the highest was Duke Johnson who finished 34th.
In preseason, Gurley was ranked 28th and finished 5th.
David Johnson was ranked 43rd and finished 9th.
And disappointed T.J. Yeldon owners may be shocked to see that he finished pretty close to his preseason ranking of 23.
The biggest drop seems to be Melvin Gordon ranked 18th in preseason and finished 53rd.

No one cares about rookie TE so let's move on...

WR
19 rookies made the preseason rankings. They had an average ranking of 79.1 in their position.
They finished with an average rank of 92.1
Amari Cooper was the favorite rookie WR with a preseason rank of 17. He finished 25th.
Nelson Agholor was next with a preseason rank of 30. He finished 96th.
No unranked rookie WR cracked the top 130 receivers.
The biggest rookie gainers were Stefon Diggs (ranked 112th in preseason) and finished 45th. And Jamison Crowder (128th) who finished 58th.


Disclaimer: Had to come up with a better title than "Was Crunching Some Fantasy Numbers" or else @Chef99 would get on my case.

 

[whywork2]

Was looking at some of 2015's fantasy rankings. Comparing how they were ranked in preseason and then how players finished. (Based on "consensus" rankings from FantasyPros compared to standard scoring.)

QB
Only 6 of the top 12 QB drafted first overall finished in the top 12. Half.
The biggest jumps came from Bortles, Fitzpatrick and Cousins who weren't even ranked as QB2 backups.
The average draft/positional for the top finishers: 14.2 *

Spoiler: Asterisk

So in other words, if you lined up all of the available QB that were ranked in preseason - not in comparison or intermixed with other positions - the average rank by position was 14.2 for all QB. This same average applies to all the positions below too.

The biggest drop was Romo (ranked 9th) who finished 39th. Yes, I know he was hurt.

RB
Only 3 of the top 12 RB drafted first overall finished in the top 12. 25%
Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Lamar Miller are the only 3. Honorable mention goes to Jeremy Hill who just missed by 2 fantasy points.
The average draft/positional rank for the top finishers: 25.2
The biggest drop was Lynch (5th) who finished 51st. Yes, I know he was hurt.

TE
You'd think that with a limited amount of talent at the TE position (like with QB), that this would be more predictable? Not so much. Half of the first 12 TE drafted finished in the top 12. The biggest jump came from Gary Barnidge (ranked 50th) and finished 4th.
The average draft/positional rank for the top finishers: 17.7
The biggest drop seems to be Jimmy Graham (2nd) who finished 29th. Honorable mention goes to Dwayne Allen (ranked 13th) who finished 58th.

WR
I see a pattern here. Again, half of the first 12 WR drafted actually finished in the top 12. Honorable mention goes to Demaryius Thomas who finished 13th by 6 fantasy points.
The average draft/positional rank for the top finishers: 17.7
The biggest drop looks to be Dez Bryant (2nd) who finished 72nd. Yes, I know he was hurt.

D/ST
Finally, our prognostications are better. 75% of the first 12 D/ST drafted actually finished in the top 12. The biggest jump was the Steelers ranked 25th in preseason and finished 8th.
The average draft/positional rank for the top finishers: 9.6
The biggest drop was the Bills (ranked 2nd) who finished 20th.

Before I go into my next segment. Please enjoy this brief musical interlude.

​

Rookies
Hate them. But I was surprised.

QB
In preseason, Winston was ranked 24th. He finished 14th.
Mariota was ranked 23rd and finished 22nd.

RB
Of all of the rookies that were ranked in preseason (14 of them), they had an average ranking of 49.1
They finished with an average rank of 49.7.
The unranked rookie that finished the highest was Duke Johnson who finished 34th.
In preseason, Gurley was ranked 28th and finished 5th.
David Johnson was ranked 43rd and finished 9th.
And disappointed T.J. Yeldon owners may be shocked to see that he finished pretty close to his preseason ranking of 23.
The biggest drop seems to be Melvin Gordon ranked 18th in preseason and finished 53rd.

No one cares about rookie TE so let's move on...

WR
19 rookies made the preseason rankings. They had an average ranking of 79.1 in their position.
They finished with an average rank of 92.1
Amari Cooper was the favorite rookie WR with a preseason rank of 17. He finished 25th.
Nelson Agholor was next with a preseason rank of 30. He finished 96th.
No unranked rookie WR cracked the top 130 receivers.
The biggest rookie gainers were Stefon Diggs (ranked 112th in preseason) and finished 45th. And Jamison Crowder (128th) who finished 58th.


Disclaimer: Had to come up with a better title than "Was Crunching Some Fantasy Numbers" or else @Chef99 would get on my case.

thank you for the musical interlude , nine is a magic number, just remember that

 

[Stomp]

Appreciate all the work great thread

 

[TREFF]

Great stuff Joe

 

[averagejoe]

Thanks guys.
BTW: I did go back and look at actual consensus draft position to see if the numbers would be easier to understand. But that just complicated things because with standard scoring (which these results are based on), the QB position traditionally finishes higher than other positions. It throws the numbers off. So it is best to go by the individual positional ranks.

Also...

RB
The average draft/positional rank for the top finishers: 25.2

Another way of looking at this is if the final results averaged a ranking of 25.2, then that means that if you drafted one of the top 25 ranked RB, then you had a good chance of getting a top RB. Or at least a RB that was better than the rest of the league.

But since the RB position had the worst average rank... then your odds of landing a top WR, TE or QB were more predictable.

If you're still confused maybe this video will help:

​

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

Great work as usual Joe!

 

[leftypower]

 

[Chef99]

Joe, your opening post garnered an amazing variety of ratings.

You are Everyman!

 

[averagejoe]

This isn't very scientific, but here are few RB lists to ponder over.

The left column shows the RB who led in touches (rush attempts + receptions).
The percentage shown is the usage of that RB compared to his teammates.
The right 2 columns are the RB1 and RB2 from each 2015 NFL team.

Keep in mind, each team's RB usage was different. For instance one team used the RB as little as 334 times last year (Miami). And one team led all NFL teams with 539 play calls to the RB (Philly). Plus this doesn't account for games played/missed.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Thanks for the info Joe. Really good work. Now that we're in between drafts, need stuff like this to mull over!

 

[TKOSpikes]

This isn't very scientific, but here are few RB lists to ponder over.

The left column shows the RB who led in touches (rush attempts + receptions).
The percentage shown is the usage of that RB compared to his teammates.
The right 2 columns are the RB1 and RB2 from each 2015 NFL team.

Keep in mind, each team's RB usage was different. For instance one team used the RB as little as 334 times last year (Miami). And one team led all NFL teams with 539 play calls to the RB (Philly). Plus this doesn't account for games played/missed.

View attachment 129313

I like those top two on the left!

 

[SmokingMonkey]

this latest addition looks like a good way to gauge coaches/teams usage, maybe even more so than what the actual players are doing themselves.
A few observations from a monkey bored at work, and not interested in starting a project on a monday:
(which, when you think about it, seems terrible. Monday should be the best day to start a project, so I could complete it by Friday and not next week.)

-Ben McAdoo - he likes it when Eli dumps off to RBs as his check-down option, or at least tailors the offense to make the RB the open guy on check downs.
-Same division, reverse philosophy, Jay Gruden does NOT want his RBs to be a check down option. That's why he carries 7 TEs on his roster.
-No More Chip Kelly in Philly - I'd expect their RB receiving #s to drop.
-Chip Kelly in SF - I'd expect their RB receiving #s to jump.
-Holy PPR Stud Danny Woodhead!

alright, I'll get back to work and get something done this afternoon.

 

[averagejoe]

So no one asked me to do a chart about the WR and TE?
Oh well, I guess I'll provide the numbers on them too - with a twist.

The left column shows the WR/TE who led their team in receptions.
The FIRST percentage shown is the WR/TE compared to his other WR/TE teammates.
The SECOND percentage is based on the league average. More on that below.
The right 2 columns are the top 3 reception leaders (WR/TE only) from each 2015 NFL team. The TE position is in the maroon color.

Keep in mind, each team's reception total was different. For instance one team had a league low 205 receptions by the WR/TE (Rams). And one team led all NFL teams with 452 receptions (Saints). Plus this doesn't account for games played/missed, or injured players.

Regarding the percentage based on the league average:
Put simply if the WR/TE is on a team that tends to throw more than the league average (which is 275 receptions), his percentage will be higher. Notice, for example, Brandin Cooks, he may have received only 25% of the passes on the Saints, but because the Saints pass more than other teams, the likelihood that he catches is pass compared to Stefon Diggs (who also caught 25% of the passes) is stronger.

Clear as mud?

 

[Chef99]

Joe, you are damn skippy you get cake for that. Wow.