Manfred on Plane to South Philly w/ 2018 WS Trophy in Tow

[SlinkyRedfoot]

What do we think of this? I predicted the Phillies to win a very optimistic and ambitious 83 games before the Arrieta signing. I'm bumping them up to 85 wins now (I think Arrieta will be better than a 2-win pitcher, but I think I was a little over-optimistic when I made that prediction a couple of weeks ago).

Might get to .500 if the Mets Met again.

 

[tducey]

Very good pickup for the Phillies here, they don't win the East but I see them being a playoff contender this yr.

 

[Sparhawk]

Very good pickup for the Phillies here, they don't win the East but I see them being a playoff contender this yr.

I think .500 would have been a really good performance before that signing.
With Arietta, sure, maybe 80-90 wins, but I don't think they make the playoffs.

I think they are loading up for the following year.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I think .500 would have been a really good performance before that signing.
With Arietta, sure, maybe 80-90 wins, but I don't think they make the playoffs.

I think they are loading up for the following year.

A whole lot of shit would have to go right for the Phillies to get 90 wins, and 85 wins would likely put them in the thick of a playoff spot.

 

[Cedrique]

A whole lot of shit would have to go right for the Phillies to get 90 wins, and 85 wins would likely put them in the thick of a playoff spot.

Yeah, they still might not be quite ready this year but getting a solid established starter for the top of the rotation is a good way to improve quickly because you're replacing your number 5 starter and who knows who that would have even been.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Yeah, they still might not be quite ready this year but getting a solid established starter for the top of the rotation is a good way to improve quickly because you're replacing your number 5 starter and who knows who that would have even been.

Yeah, I like that move for them.

I’m also going to miss Santana.

 

[Sparhawk]

A whole lot of shit would have to go right for the Phillies to get 90 wins, and 85 wins would likely put them in the thick of a playoff spot.

I don't see much of a difference between 85 or 90 wins.
Records in 1-run games tend to fluctuate.

Recipe for 90 wins on the Phils :
1. One of the other three pitchers steps up and becomes a factor (league average pitching)
2. No serious bullpen issues (above average bullpen)
3. The offense doesn't struggle to get on base (top 10 in OBP)

Recipe for 70 wins :
1. Nola or Arietta struggles and nobody else steps up
2. Bullpen falls apart
3. Offense cannot get on base

 

[Sparhawk]

Yeah, I like that move for them.

I’m also going to miss Santana.

Yeah, adding Santana and SS Crawford is supposed to majorly improve our OBP, given what we had there last year.

 

[Cedrique]

Yeah, I like that move for them.

I’m also going to miss Santana.

Yeah, at first it seemed a little weird because the hope is that Rhys Hoskins becomes the same type of player as Santana. But if they can somehow fit both of them in with out losing too much on defense that is going to make the offense that much better.
Also, if you take away the salaries of Santana and Arrietta that payroll is just crazy low. Almost like they are tanking but they really aren't at this point. They just have a really young team.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't see much of a difference between 85 or 90 wins.

lolz

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Yeah, at first it seemed a little weird because the hope is that Rhys Hoskins becomes the same type of player as Santana. But if they can somehow fit both of them in with out losing too much on defense that is going to make the offense that much better.
Also, if you take away the salaries of Santana and Arrietta that payroll is just crazy low. Almost like they are tanking but they really aren't at this point. They just have a really young team.

Maybe they're gearing up for a run at Harper.

I say that in jest, but I don't see why they couldn't be in the mix.

 

[Cedrique]

Yeah, adding Santana and SS Crawford is supposed to majorly improve our OBP, given what we had there last year.

I agree and I believe the current management of Klentak and Kapler is much more aware of this than Amaro/Mackanin. When you have a great hitters park like CBP you need guys with a high OBP and some guys with power way more than you need high batting averages and speed.

 

[Cedrique]

Maybe they're gearing up for a run at Harper.

I say that in jest, but I don't see why they couldn't be in the mix.

Or Machado. But I don't think they are really saving money for the future, it is just the way the system is set up. They are optimistic about a lot of these young guys and mlb has made it so players don't make that much for their first 4 or 5 years.

 

[Sparhawk]

lolz

Of course there is a literal difference between 85 and 90 wins, but there are arbitrary factors that come into play.

In 2017, NYY went 91-71, but had an 18-26 record in 1 run games.
In 2017, SFG went 64-98, but had a 23-24 record in 1 run games.

Teams are always outperforming or underperforming their expected Pythagorean numbers.

If I state that Team X will win 70-90 games, that's true for what, 60% of the league???

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Or Machado. But I don't think they are really saving money for the future, it is just the way the system is set up. They are optimistic about a lot of these young guys and mlb has made it so players don't make that much for their first 4 or 5 years.

Absolutely agree, but being a huge market with a payroll of relative peanuts, they could certainly put themselves in those discussions.

I'd also say that the current roster is the pendulum swinging back from the retarded shit Amaro Jr had done.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Of course there is a literal difference between 85 and 90 wins, but there are arbitrary factors that come into play.

In 2017, NYY went 91-71, but had an 18-26 record in 1 run games.
In 2017, SFG went 64-98, but had a 23-24 record in 1 run games.

Teams are always outperforming or underperforming their expected Pythagorean numbers.

If I state that Team X will win 70-90 games, that's true for what, 60% of the league???

lolz

 

[Cedrique]

Absolutely agree, but being a huge market with a payroll of relative peanuts, they could certainly put themselves in those discussions.

I'd also say that the current roster is the pendulum swinging back from the retarded shit Amaro Jr had done.

Yeah, I guess they did make a couple good draft picks based on the awful record they had after Amaro destroyed the team.