Manfred on Plane to South Philly w/ 2018 WS Trophy in Tow

[Omar 382]

Ok, maybe pump the breaks on that one, but Jake Arrieta signs 3 years $75 million dollar deal with the Phillies. I don't know how the contract is structured, but let's ignore that. I know I don't post with you imbeciles on the main board regarding every signing and breaking move, but fuck you- this is the Phillies.

Sizing everything up, this is kinda how I'm feelin' (and an ode to Arrieta's evil past ways that he has abandoned in favor of THE LIGHT)

 

[Omar 382]

What do we think of this? I predicted the Phillies to win a very optimistic and ambitious 83 games before the Arrieta signing. I'm bumping them up to 85 wins now (I think Arrieta will be better than a 2-win pitcher, but I think I was a little over-optimistic when I made that prediction a couple of weeks ago).

I haven't watched Arrieta pitch on a day-to-day basis. Statistically, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last four years, but I know he is prone to pitching great and awful for stretches of time. I hear that a lot of it has to do with command, which scares me a tad at the age of 32.

Still, I like the move a lot. The Phillies have the money to spend, and hopefully the contract is front-loaded; but regardless, this isn't a ton of cash to us. (We literally only had $43 million committed to our payroll before signing Arrieta).

And the upside is, if he does have his command, he is dominant. 2.28 ERA in the second-half of last year. Let's hope that continues, cocksuckers!

 

[Chewbaccer]

He's definitely better than what you would have had, but at the same time, I wouldn't expect him to be competing for the Cy Young Award.

He was a very late bloomer that put together a real nice run, but he regressed a pretty good bit last season, and at age 32, I wouldn't expect him to return to CYA contending status.

 

[Omar 382]

He's definitely better than what you would have had, but at the same time, I wouldn't expect him to be competing for the Cy Young Award.

He was a very late bloomer that put together a real nice run, but he regressed a pretty good bit last season, and at age 32, I wouldn't expect him to return to CYA contending status.

No, I definitely don't see him as Cy Young contender this year. At 32 years old, I'll be very happy with a 3.65 ERA over 185 IP. Considering no one outside of Aaron Nola is giving us that this year, I like this deal.

I mean our #2, before signing Arrieta, was a guy with a 4.71 ERA/4.30 FIP over 128 IP last year (Jerad Eickhoff). This definitely boosts our pitching, regardless if Arrieta even approaches his 2015 level pitching.

 

[RobToxin]

I'm a Texas Rangers fan.

What is this pitching you speak of?

 

[Cedrique]

Ok, maybe pump the breaks on that one, but Jake Arrieta signs 3 years $75 million dollar deal with the Phillies. I don't know how the contract is structured, but let's ignore that. I know I don't post with you imbeciles on the main board regarding every signing and breaking move, but fuck you- this is the Phillies.

Sizing everything up, this is kinda how I'm feelin' (and an ode to Arrieta's evil past ways that he has abandoned in favor of THE LIGHT)

I forget, has this guy ever destroyed his retro jersey with a pair of scissors?

 

[Omar 382]

I forget, has this guy ever destroyed his retro jersey with a pair of scissors?

Data is returning a negative. We're in the clear

 

[Cedrique]

Data is returning a negative. We're in the clear

Word!

 

[navamind]

still think the Phillies need a fair amount of things to go right for them to really contend for a playoff spot, but it's not too unreasonable IMO. That offense has a lot of upside. A rotation of Nola/Arrieta/Eickhoff/Velasquez/whatever could be pretty decent.

Projections aren't very high on Nick Williams though.

 

[Cedrique]

still think the Phillies need a fair amount of things to go right for them to really contend for a playoff spot, but it's not too unreasonable IMO. That offense has a lot of upside. A rotation of Nola/Arrieta/Eickhoff/Velasquez/whatever could be pretty decent.

Projections aren't very high on Nick Williams though.

I'm not that high on Nick Williams either. But if he really flops they have a few guys that could easily replace him.

 

[calsnowskier]

Mets
Nats
Marlins
Braves
Phillies

The Phils have a decent shot at 2nd in the division. Not sure they have enough for a WC spot, but stranger things have happened.

Dodgers
Nats
Cubs

Giants
Brewers
Dbacks
Rockies
Mets
Phillies

The Brewers are in the weakest division, so that probably gives them a leg up. The DBacks may be the best team of the other contenders.

The Phillies would be a stretch, but I think they do belong in the discussion.

 

[redseat]

Jake Arrieta Is a Phillie—and the Phillies May Actually Be Contenders

 

[Omar 382]

I'm not that high on Nick Williams either. But if he really flops they have a few guys that could easily replace him.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I read nava's post, and was like, um, ahem.....

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Man

Shocked by that contract

Thought he was definitely destined for a one year "show me" deal

All these players that have held out this long, have looked pretty dumb

Not Jake

 

[molsaniceman]

pretty good deal for jake

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Phillies' contract with Jake Arrieta includes an opt-out clause after the second season.
Arrieta will earn $30 million in 2018, $25 million in 2019 and $20 million in 2020. The right-hander has the option to opt-out after the 2019 season, but the contract also allows the Phillies to void that potential opt-out clause in the form of a two-year extension for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In that event, Arrieta would earn $20 million per season for those two years, with incentives that could drive it up to $25 million per season. All told, the final deal could wind up being for five years and between $125 and $135 million.

 

[Pure Steel]

pretty good deal for jake

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Phillies' contract with Jake Arrieta includes an opt-out clause after the second season.
Arrieta will earn $30 million in 2018, $25 million in 2019 and $20 million in 2020. The right-hander has the option to opt-out after the 2019 season, but the contract also allows the Phillies to void that potential opt-out clause in the form of a two-year extension for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In that event, Arrieta would earn $20 million per season for those two years, with incentives that could drive it up to $25 million per season. All told, the final deal could wind up being for five years and between $125 and $135 million.

Wow....that is all.....

 

[Sparhawk]

I believe the Phillies got fair value for him.

Might only turn out to be a two-year deal.
Can cut their losses after three if it doesn't work out.

What are the concerns :
Losing 2-3 mph on his fastball.
K/9 2015 (9.28) 2017 (8.71) not too bad
BB/9 2015 (1.89) 2017 (2.94) concerning
HR/9 2015 (0.39) 2017 (1.23) yikes!
BABIP 2015 (.246) 2017 (.279) not a good trend
GB% 2015 (56.2%) 2017 (45.1%) not a good trend
FIP 2015 (2.35) 2017 (4.16) grave concerns

That being said, most of his 2017 struggles were in the 1st two months of the season.
If we get 2nd half Jake Arrieta, then that's a good thing.

 

[Cedrique]

Can't wait for the parade. I'm thinking about eating Phanatic shit this time--is it green?

 

[Cedrique]

I believe the Phillies got fair value for him.

Might only turn out to be a two-year deal.
Can cut their losses after three if it doesn't work out.

What are the concerns :
Losing 2-3 mph on his fastball.
K/9 2015 (9.28) 2017 (8.71) not too bad
BB/9 2015 (1.89) 2017 (2.94) concerning
HR/9 2015 (0.39) 2017 (1.23) yikes!
BABIP 2015 (.246) 2017 (.279) not a good trend
GB% 2015 (56.2%) 2017 (45.1%) not a good trend
FIP 2015 (2.35) 2017 (4.16) grave concerns

That being said, most of his 2017 struggles were in the 1st two months of the season.
If we get 2nd half Jake Arrieta, then that's a good thing.

The thing that really made it work for the Phillies is they had money to burn. I think the owners have some kind of unwritten rule that they can't have a payroll too low. This puts them about even with the Rays.

 

[Cedrique]

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I read nava's post, and was like, um, ahem.....

I just figured it out. Yes, there is a good chance we will have the Commissioner patrolling the outfield on a regular basis. Or as he is called in his homeland, Der Kommissar.