Magic Number

[calsnowskier]

And that pretty much seals it...

 

[calsnowskier]

The Tigers have gotten their revenge, and they do it on a Sandoval HR.

Fitting.

 

[SFGRTB]

Signing Pablo turned out to be worse than I could have imagined.

 

[LHG]

How big of a difference does it make picking #1 versus #2 in the draft? Here's some numbers for comparison:
Since 1965, the number of #1 draft picks that have made it to the big leagues - 46 of 52 (4 of 6 currently active minor leaguers, although one did not sign with the drafting team)
#2 draft picks - 45 of 53 (3 of the 8 are currently active minor leaguers)
Number of #1 picks with a career WAR of 60 or greater - 3 (117.7, 85.0, 83.6, with another 2 possibly making it)
Number of #2 picks with a career WAR of 60 or greater - 1 (73.8, with another 2 possibly making it)
Number of #1 picks with a career WAR of 30 or greater - 13 (with another 4 having a shot at making it)
Number of #2 picks with a career WAR of 30 or greater - 7 (with another 4 having a shot at making it)
Number of #1 picks with a career WAR of 20 or greater - 21 (with another 3 having a shot at making it)
Number of #2 picks with a career WAR of 20 or greater - 12 (with another 5 having a shot at making it)
Average career WAR of a #1 pick - 22.3
Average career WAR of a #2 pick - 14.7

 

[calsnowskier]

While I like that work, I believe scouting has gotten significantly better in the last 20 years or so. That said, there are still the Buster Poseys, Madison Bumgarners, Claytons Kershaw’s and Mike Trouts of the world. And there is only 1 #1 overall pick to ever make it to the HOF (likely 2, eventually, with ARod).

Despite my desire to get the #1 overall, it REALLY doesn’t matter. It really all comes down to the team that is picking and their scouting depentment and development team (and the actual class, of course).

 

[LHG]

While I like that work, I believe scouting has gotten significantly better in the last 20 years or so. That said, there are still the Buster Poseys, Madison Bumgarners, Claytons Kershaw’s and Mike Trouts of the world. And there is only 1 #1 overall pick to ever make it to the HOF (likely 2, eventually, with ARod).

Despite my desire to get the #1 overall, it REALLY doesn’t matter. It really all comes down to the team that is picking and their scouting depentment and development team (and the actual class, of course).

Narrowing it down to the past 20 years, here's what it looks like:
Number of #1 picks who didn't make the big leagues - 4 (2013, 2014, 2016, 2017)
Number of #2 picks who didn't make the big leagues - 4 (2011, 2014, 2016, 2017)
Number of #1 picks with a career WAR of 30 or greater - 4
Number of #2 picks with a career WAR of 30 or greater - 3
Number of #1 picks with a career WAR of 30 or greater -7
Number of #2 picks with a career WAR of 20 or greater - 4
Number of #1 picks with a career WAR of 30 or greater -9
Number of #2 picks with a career WAR of 15 or greater - 7
Number of #1 picks still active -16
Number of #2 picks still active -14
Average career WAR of a #1 pick - 15.07
Average career WAR of a #2 pick - 13.45

You may be right, the gap has closed a bit.