July Trade Deadline

[LHG]

While just over two months before the big trade deadline, I thought maybe now is a good time to start a thread to start ongoing discussion about the role the Giants will play. Will they be buyers? If out of serious contention by July, will they be sellers? Right now, the team could be considered a possible buyer and the biggest need is starting pitching. But who will be available? Let's look at the rotations of the teams already looking like sellers (teams at least 7 games back in both division and 2nd Wild Card for their league):

Baltimore - Kevin Gausman, Andrew Cashner, Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, Chris Tillman. Tillman looks absolutely awful and is currently on the dl. However, he could be picked up cheaply. Would it be worth the trade? Cobb doesn't look much better and is inked to a 3 year deal. Bundy isn't that great but is young and the Orioles may trade him as he will be arb eligible this offseason. Will probably cost a bit to get him. Cashner hasn't looked good since 2014 (2017 maybe the exception). Gausman will also be arb eligible and is about in line with his career numbers. Will cost a bit. He seems the one most worth looking at.

Kansas City - Jakob Kunis, Jason Hammel, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, Eric Skoglund. Hammel, Kennedy and Duffy will almost all be on the trading block but none look worth picking up. Skoglund and Kunis are young and will probably be who the Royals use to re-build around.

Chicago White Sox - James Shields, Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Hector Santiago, Miguel Gonzalez. Only Shields, Santiago and Gonzalez will probably be available. Shields may be worth it, if the price is right. Santiago and Gonzalez don't look good and Gonzalez is currently injured.

Texas - Cole Hamels, Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Mike Minor, Matt Moore, Martin Perez. Matt Moore anyone? All joking aside, I would think the Rangers would be open to trading any of these guys but only Hamels and maybe Colon and Fister would be worth considering. Hamels will probably command quite the package.

Miami - Jose Urena, Caleb Smith, Jarlin Garcia, Dan Straily. Wei-Yin Chen, Elieser Hernandez. This is a young rotation, only Straily and Chen will be available. Neither look to be worth picking up.

Cincinnati - Homer Bailey, Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo, Sal Romano, Matt Harvey, Brandon Finnegan. You know Harvey will be traded and the Reds' FO has to be licking their lips thinking of the return they may get. Not so much with Bailey or Finnegan, the other two trade possibilities.

My early names for the ones worth consideration but may cost too much - Kevin Gausman, James Shields, Cole Hamels.

My early names for the Matt Harvey most likely to cost too much for the investment - Matt Harvey

My early names for cheaper and maybe worth pursuing - Andrew Cashner, Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister.

The rest of the field - Chris Tillman, Jason Hammel, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, Hector Santiago, Miguel Gonzalez, Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen, Homer Bailey, Brandon Finnegan.

 

[SFGRTB]

Considering all things on this list, I'd be most interested in Bundy and Gausman. Both guys are nasty and could probably do well to get out of the AL East, and Camden Yards in particular. But they would cost a lot in terms of prospect capital, similar to the Matt Moore deal.

With Bumgarner, Cueto and Shark the only three really locked in long term, and not too much in terms of impact starting pitchers on the mend, I wouldn't mind the Giants cashing in a little bit to get one of these young-ish arms.

I wouldn't mind Shields, as he should be pretty cheap.

Cole Hamels would be nice, but too expensive.

No thanks to everyone else.

 

[calsnowskier]

Who would we be willing to trade, assuming we are buyers, that could actually have value?

Chris Shaw
Austin Slater
Alen Hanson
Aramis Garcia
Andrew Suarez
Ryder Jones
Miguel Gomez
Ryan Howard
Jalen Miller
Brandon Van Horn
Jacob Gonzalez
Jonah Arenado
Steven Duggar (if so, than he likely lost value)
Tyler Beede
Heliot Ramos (yikes)
Shaun Anderson
Jason Bahr


Not a complete list, but a pretty extensive list.

I think Shaw, Slater, Ramos and maybe Anderson or Bahr could act as a centerpiece.

 

[LHG]

Who would we be willing to trade, assuming we are buyers, that could actually have value?

Chris Shaw
Austin Slater
Alen Hanson
Aramis Garcia
Andrew Suarez
Ryder Jones
Miguel Gomez
Ryan Howard
Jalen Miller
Brandon Van Horn
Jacob Gonzalez
Jonah Arenado
Steven Duggar (if so, than he likely lost value)
Tyler Beede
Heliot Ramos (yikes)
Shaun Anderson
Jason Bahr


Not a complete list, but a pretty extensive list.

I think Shaw, Slater, Ramos and maybe Anderson or Bahr could act as a centerpiece.

I think Ramos would definitely be a centerpiece. Shaw may be a centerpiece. Anderson and Bahr have a little ways to go to be centerpieces. Slater definitely not a centerpiece.

With that being said, this list makes me cringe, mainly because I don't like trading prospects. I have rose colored glasses when it comes to the home grown guys. I always think they'll pan out.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think Ramos would definitely be a centerpiece. Shaw may be a centerpiece. Anderson and Bahr have a little ways to go to be centerpieces. Slater definitely not a centerpiece.

With that being said, this list makes me cringe, mainly because I don't like trading prospects. I have rose colored glasses when it comes to the home grown guys. I always think they'll pan out.

I don’t agree re: Slater. He has hit throughout his professional career, and especially in the Majors. The only reason he hasn’t been given a shot by the Giants (I suppose) is because they don’t want to have a controversy with two kids fighting for one spot while they have vets comfortably occupying other spots without competition or production.

 

[SFGRTB]

Who would we be willing to trade, assuming we are buyers, that could actually have value?

Chris Shaw
Austin Slater
Alen Hanson
Aramis Garcia
Andrew Suarez
Ryder Jones
Miguel Gomez
Ryan Howard
Jalen Miller
Brandon Van Horn
Jacob Gonzalez
Jonah Arenado
Steven Duggar (if so, than he likely lost value)
Tyler Beede
Heliot Ramos (yikes)
Shaun Anderson
Jason Bahr


Not a complete list, but a pretty extensive list.

I think Shaw, Slater, Ramos and maybe Anderson or Bahr could act as a centerpiece.

If the Giants are getting a young-ish pitcher (or, outside of this scope, a young-ish player that's in the major leagues), I'd be willing to deal Shaw. I like him a lot, and am pretty high on him, but it's worth questioning if his bat will play at AT&T. Given that all his value is in his bat, that could be a bad bet. Trading him now, while he still has value as a prospect, could make sense.

Wouldn't touch Ramos or Anderson. I don't anticipate Anderson being an 'Ace' but having him around as depth could be pretty valuable, with a good chance to exceed that.

edit: following up on Shaw. If they traded him for Shields, I'd be fucking pissed

 

[tzill]

I can't see us adding at the deadline unless we unload a contract. Dyson?

We won't go over the tax line.

 

[calsnowskier]

I can't see us adding at the deadline unless we unload a contract. Dyson?

We won't go over the tax line.

If we are in the hunt, the tax line will be ignored. But they won’t go all in on a prayer. We need to be within 2 games or so for that.

 

[calsnowskier]

And if Dyson has trade value, he will not be traded. This team needs the elite bully.

If Dyson does not have value, he won’t be traded. No one will want him if he doesn’t have value.

 

[tzill]

If we are in the hunt, the tax line will be ignored. But they won’t go all in on a prayer. We need to be within 2 games or so for that.

I don't think so. the ownership has given them a hard line

 

[LHG]

If we are in the hunt, the tax line will be ignored. But they won’t go all in on a prayer. We need to be within 2 games or so for that.

If the team is, say, 5 games back, what do you envision the FO doing? Will they stand pat with who they have, ignoring the value they could get in return for some of the veterans? Or do they ship off some guys, signaling to the clubhouse that they've given up on the season? That spot is a perilous location for the team.

 

[calsnowskier]

If the team is, say, 5 games back, what do you envision the FO doing? Will they stand pat with who they have, ignoring the value they could get in return for some of the veterans? Or do they ship off some guys, signaling to the clubhouse that they've given up on the season? That spot is a perilous location for the team.

Good question.

I think 5 or so back puts them in that gray area. They might make some cosmetic moves, but they will not take on money. Maybe they will over pay in prospects?? If they are 7 or so out, they may dump some guys (Cutch, Dyson), but Bum ain’t going anywhere. They never want to LOOK like they are selling.

So basically...

Within 3 games, they go all in, cap-be-damned.

3-5 games back, hold tight, maybe overpay with prospects, but the cap will not be passed.

7 or more back, they lightly sell.

 

[tzill]

Good question.

I think 5 or so back puts them in that gray area. They might make some cosmetic moves, but they will not take on money. Maybe they will over pay in prospects?? If they are 7 or so out, they may dump some guys (Cutch, Dyson), but Bum ain’t going anywhere. They never want to LOOK like they are selling.

So basically...

Within 3 games, they go all in, cap-be-damned.

3-5 games back, hold tight, maybe overpay with prospects, but the cap will not be passed.

7 or more back, they lightly sell.

I don't think they go over the cap line, irrespective of where they are in the hunt.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't think they go over the cap line, irrespective of where they are in the hunt.

You may be right.

Hopefully we find out.

 

[SFGRTB]

I can't see us adding at the deadline unless we unload a contract. Dyson?

We won't go over the tax line.

That's why I see a move for Gausman or Bundy as more plausible. Bundy is making $1.5M and is ARB 1 eligible next year. Gausman is a bit steeper at $5.6M but has two more ARB years left. The Giants would probably have to send someone like Austin Jackson over, which would mean the Giants pay more in terms of prospects.

This deadline is going to be tricky

 

[calsnowskier]

Baggs just made a great point on Tom and John...

If the team is in a situation where a tear down is appropriate, will the current regime be around to get the benefit of the players received in a Bum trade? Would you trust the current regime to make that trade to begin with?

Personally, I am good with Sabes guiding the ship through the rebuild years. Evans, I could go either way. But I doubt Sabes’ job would be in trouble (unless he decides to walk on his own, like I expect Boch to leave after this year). But would he be around for 5 more years to see Bart/Mize and Ramos lead the next generation to the promised land?

 

[SFGRTB]

Baggs just made a great point on Tom and John...

If the team is in a situation where a tear down is appropriate, will the current regime be around to get the benefit of the players received in a Bum trade? Would you trust the current regime to make that trade to begin with?

Personally, I am good with Sabes guiding the ship through the rebuild years. Evans, I could go either way. But I doubt Sabes’ job would be in trouble (unless he decides to walk on his own, like I expect Boch to leave after this year). But would he be around for 5 more years to see Bart/Mize and Ramos lead the next generation to the promised land?

Would be really shady, but not unprecedented

 

[LHG]

I know that there have been a lot of rumblings that the FO is going to work hard to stay under the luxury tax threshold this year and not pick up anyone at the trade deadline if that puts them over the threshold. But if the Giants somehow get into first place in the NL West before July 31st, how much of a possibility do you all think that the ownership decides to go all in and forget the threshold?

 

[SF11704]

This is going to be a very difficult July for the FO. What will they consider as 'in contention'? After the first 62 games of the season the Central Division has 3 teams at 10 games over 500 or better. IMHO they may be the strongest of the NL divisions. I'm guessing at least one WC from there. So ... that means we have to be in contention for the NL West title or the one remaining WC spot. And we'll have to make this decision with about 80-85 games left to play.
If we are buying in July it will have to be for an impact player (probably a starter) .... but if we are chasing rather defending our position ... it makes it all the more difficult. Having Bum and Cuerto at full health will help. But I'd rather not give away our future trying to wipe out a 3-5 game lead by the D-Backs.


.

 

[SFGRTB]

I know that there have been a lot of rumblings that the FO is going to work hard to stay under the luxury tax threshold this year and not pick up anyone at the trade deadline if that puts them over the threshold. But if the Giants somehow get into first place in the NL West before July 31st, how much of a possibility do you all think that the ownership decides to go all in and forget the threshold?

It becomes a double-whammy too. They blow past the luxury tax and trade away the few prospects we have that are valuable