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Jay Bruce and the quest for 500 career homeruns

Discussion in 'MLB Baseball Forum' started by PolarVortex, Jan 11, 2018 at 8:56 AM.

  1. soxfan1468927

    soxfan1468927 Well-Known Member

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    I don't agree with that assumption. If he hits: 28, 28, 28, 28, 28, 20, 20, 18, 18, 17 over the next 10 years, he would have 500 HRs. I understand longevity is a thing, but those numbers don't guarantee he was a good player. Roughned Odor hit 30 HRs last year and I wouldn't say he was a good player at all.
     



  2. PolarVortex

    PolarVortex Well-Known Member

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    Well, good ole Walt was known to be anti-Semitic. I'd sue those assholes.
     
  3. MilkSpiller22

    MilkSpiller22 Gorilla

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    fine, there are ways that he can break it without being a good player... But do you really think a team would be starting an old fart who can ONLY hit HRs but apparently doesn't do much of that either.... we could talk semantics all you want, but when can we start talking logically??
     
  4. PolarVortex

    PolarVortex Well-Known Member

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    All or nothing players becoming more and more common, even guys who realistically can't be counted on for more than 15-20 homeruns. There are more in the game today, with starting jobs, than at any other time in MLB history. Why do you think 'the shift' has become such useful defensive strategy? We are even starting to see shifts on right-handed hitters now.
     
  5. Used 2 B Hu

    Used 2 B Hu Gin-Soaked Member

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    A quick look at his career stats suggests that if he can play the entire year, every year, this is all attainable. But that assumes good health and no injuries while he ages. For a lot of guys, the end comes rapidly.
     
  6. JohnU

    JohnU Aristocratic Hoosier

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  7. soxfan1468927

    soxfan1468927 Well-Known Member

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    I don't see why that's so unbelievable
     
  8. MilkSpiller22

    MilkSpiller22 Gorilla

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    So, you are really going to have a 35+ year old DH who Barely hits 20 hrs and barely has a .230 BA. Yea. That is realistic. You really think that player is going to get a contract??
     
  9. soxfan1468927

    soxfan1468927 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, that is realistic because it happens.
     
  10. DirtDirtDirt

    DirtDirtDirt Well-Known Member

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    Are there any NON-PED players who hit 500

    Not in the HOF?
     
  11. MilkSpiller22

    MilkSpiller22 Gorilla

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    Can we at least agree that if he does reach 500 hrs. He is most likely to have at least 4 seasons around his career averages.
     
  12. soxfan1468927

    soxfan1468927 Well-Known Member

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    Nope. The top HR hitters, who have already been voted on:

    1. Barry Bonds: 762
    2. Sammy Sosa: 609
    3. Mark McGwire: 583
    4. Rafael Palmeiro: 569
    5. Manny Ramirez: 555
    6. Gary Sheffield: 509
    7. Fred McGriff: 493
     
  13. soxfan1468927

    soxfan1468927 Well-Known Member

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    Sure.
     
  14. DirtDirtDirt

    DirtDirtDirt Well-Known Member

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    Wow, lets see how this "juiced ball" era goes, cause at this rate, they just may have to adjust the 500 benchmark
     
  15. tducey

    tducey Sports discussion

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    Have always liked Jay Bruce as a player. Hoping he does get to 500 HR.
     
  16. StanMarsh51

    StanMarsh51 Well-Known Member

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    Bruce seems like the type of guy whose batting average is going to hover around the mendoza line in a few years, hence won't be good enough to keep playing to get anywhere near 500 homers....think Troy Glaus, Greg Vaughn, Carlos Pena.
     
  17. soxfan1468927

    soxfan1468927 Well-Known Member

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    Funny you should mention Troy Glaus. Going into his age-31 season, he had exactly 277 HRs like Bruce.
     
  18. Omar 382

    Omar 382 Well-Known Member

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    Jay Bruce will likely announce in December of 2026 his plans to retire after the 2027 season while sitting at 475 home runs, there will be intense discussion about whether or not he will get to 500 all throughout the 2027 season, he will get to 499 career home runs on the penultimate game of the season, and then will play his final game. He'll be penciled into the three-hole in between J.P. Crawford and Rhys Hoskins for the final game (Bruce signed with the Phillies in the 2023 offseason, and has won 3 straights WS championships with them).

    After going 0-4, and the score showing the Phillies leading 10-2 in the bottom of the 8th inning, Jay comes to the plate for one final plate appearance at The Bank. A crack, and a drive- that baby's taking off- and a fan reaches over the wall and snags the ball! They're calling it a ground-rule double! <Color commentator: And remember, Rob Manfred abolished replay on home runs due to time restraints last offseason> Oh no- replay clearly shows that ball would have been gone! What was the fan thinking!?!

    Pan to close-up shot of @Cedrique in the right field bleachers, right behind the fan who robbed the home run.

    Cedrique- "Don't bring me down...........Bruce"
     
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  19. Omar 382

    Omar 382 Well-Known Member

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    Critics are calling the new Jay Bruce three-year, $39 million deal “just fine” and “perfectly mediocre.”
     
  20. soxfan1468927

    soxfan1468927 Well-Known Member

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    Jay Bruce is the 38th player to reach 277 HRs before his age-31 season. 20 of the 37 before him have hit 500 HRs, with one likely to get there (Miguel Cabrera). Here are the top HR hitters through the age-30 season who didn't reach 500 HRs. 9 out of the 16 didn't even reach 400 HRs.

    Andruw Jones: 368 (finished with 434)
    Juan Gonzalez: 362 (434)
    Adam Dunn: 354 (462)
    Ralph Kiner: 329 (369)
    Duke Snider: 316 (407)
    Johnny Bench: 310 (389)
    Vladimir Guerrero: 305 (449)
    Rocky Colavito: 302 (374)
    Jose Canseco: 300 (462)
    Lou Gehrig: 299 (493)
    Prince Fielder: 288 (319)
    Darryl Strawberry: 285 (335)
    Orlando Cepeda: 284 (379)
    Boog Powell: 280 (339)
    Ron Santo: 279 (342)
    Troy Glaus: 277 (320)

    Then here are the 7 players who did reach 500 HRs but didn't have 277 before their age-31 season, listed by fewest HRs to most

    Rafael Palmeiro: 194
    David Ortiz: 231
    Gary Sheffield: 236
    Mark McGwire: 238
    Ted Williams: 265
    Willie McCovey: 268
    Eddie Murray: 275

    Those top 4 guys have something in common.
     
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