You have to admit, at age 30 and with 277 homeruns already amassed, Jay Bruce has a legitimate shot at 500 career homeruns. From here on out, alot will depend on his health, genetics, and playing environment. But he certainly has a shot. Do the unofficial HOF career watermakrs (500 homeruns, 3000 hits) need to change? Are they unrealistic now? Probably. Consider the case of Fred McGriff. McGriff hit 493 homeruns. He has the highest homerun total of any player eligible for the HOF who has not been blacklisted. A mere 7 at bats, which he hit the ball over the fence but the outfielder made a leaping grab to pull the ball back in. In his long career, that had to have happened at least 7 times, right? And those 7 stolen homeruns are the difference between him being in the HOF and not being in the HOF. As unofficial guidelines, the career watermarks kinda suck.