How Will the Rookie RB Affect Their Team?

[averagejoe]

Here are a few teams that made RB additions in the NFL draft. Some critics have said this is a strong RB class. But even seasoned fantasy owners know that there could be a learning curve involved, learning complicated formations, trusting teammates to hit holes decisively, routes, and picking up blitzes.

There was an article that looked at rookie success in their first season over the last 10 seasons. Basically, this is how it broke down by round. 10 of 22 RB selected in the 1st round had 900+ all-purpose yards (rush & rcvg) in their first season.

With this chart in mind only 2 RB were selected in the first round in 2017: Leonard Fournette (1.04) to the Jags and Christian McCaffrey (1.08) to the Panthers.

I also wonder how the workload will be split? Because the majority of these highly touted RB landed on teams with established starters.

• A huge impact was drafting Leonard Fournette (1.04) in Jacksonville to go with Yeldon and Ivory. Many see Fournette starting immediately.
• Christian McCaffrey (1.08) landed on the Panthers, where Jonathan Stewart is the starter.

Then there are some convoluted situations.

• Cincy added Joe Mixon (2.48) to compliment or confuse the very productive roles of Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard.
• GB added two RB, Jamaal Williams (4.134) and Aaron Jones (5.182) to go with converted WR Ty Montgomery and virtually nothing else behind TyMo.
• Houston added D'Onta Foreman (3.89), where Lamar Miller is the starter.
• In Indy, Marlon Mack (4.143) was added. It almost seems like Mack would get the job sooner rather then later from ironman Frank Gore. But Gore continues to defy age.
• In Minny, they added Dalvin Cook (2.41) to the mix with FA Latavius Murray.

Not sure if it wil help or hurt, but here's a breakdown of the way some of these teams above split touches among their running backs:

To me some of these situations seem to be transition pieces for the long run, and not necessarily 2017.

But there were other selections worth noting.

• The Saints added Alvin Kamara (3.67) to go along with Mark Ingram and FA Adrian Peterson.
• The Jets added Elijah McGuire (6.188) to go with Matt Forte and Bilal Powell.
• The Eagles congested their backfield with Donnel Pumphrey (4.132) to go with Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, and Wendell Smallwood.
• The Steelers added James Conner (3.105) perhaps to terminate TD plunges by Le'Veon Bell?
• The Niners drafted Joe Williams (4.121) to go with Carlos Hyde and Tim Hightower.
  • In fact the Niners situation is intriguing because this is how new HC Kyle Shanahan split touches in DC in 2016 in the chart above ^^^.
• The Redskins added Samaje Perine (4.114) to go with Robert Kelley, Chris Thompson, and Matt Jones.

I'd like to believe that most of these new RB are still a year - or at minimum, a few NFL weeks removed - from being relevant in 2017. But I honestly don't know.

No one envisioned 2016 5th round pick Jordan Howard stealing the starting job from Jeremy Langford in Chicago since he went undrafted in most leagues.

Thoughts?

 

[Trudem]

Love the chart and breakdown. However the Packers drafted 3 RBs but I dont think the third will play a large role.

 

[ehb5]

My guess is Fournette, Mixon, McAffrey get almost all the work in their backfields. Cook and Perine get more than half. Hunt and Kamara get enough to be valuable and take over by the end of the year/next year.

The rest I'm less optimistic about. Mack may see 3rd down work. But I think as long as Gore is healthy he's got the job. Miller gets most of the work in Houston, Montgomery gets most of it in GB. Hyde and Williams could be interesting. Shanahan seems to love williams but I can't see Hyde going anywhere until after the season when his contact expires.

Also love the charts and data but one small correction. Shanahan wasn't in DC last year.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I like Marlon Mack to make an immediate impact in the passing game for Colts this year.
I think he brings a speed/open space element that the other RBs on their roster just don't have, so that will help him get on the field. Still think this is Gore's team, but that Mack will have a role.

Point of reference:
Ahmad Bradshaw had 700+ yds and 8 TDs in limited action across 10 games in 2014
Luck isn't opposed to dump offs/RB passes, even in the red zone (all 8 of bradshaw's TDs came in the red zone, 6 receiving and 2 rush)

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I really cant see Fournette, Mixon and McCaffrey not being the number one back on day one...

Cook and lat murray sounds like a great duo... I see both getting 10+ carries per game... and the hot hand can get up to 20... But it will be difficult to draft either in fantasy, Lat murray seems the right fit for red zone offense...


My next 2 would be Kareem Hunt and Semaje Perine, both are coming in to similar situations... for the Chiefs Ware and West were pretty big disappointments, so they will likely have a very short leash... Robert Kelley was a pleasant surprise, but he is not one with the pedigree and came from nowhere, he will likely have a short leash as well...

 

[averagejoe]

one small correction. Shanahan wasn't in DC last year.

Thanks for the correction.

@MilkSpiller22 are you hearing anything locally about the Jets' backfield?

 

[leftypower]

Great info Joe - -

 

[averagejoe]

Great info Joe - -

Thanks.
I did it partially just to clear my own perspective of these RB situations.
I think I only made it worse?
Or I just reaffirmed the idea that you can't trust rookies.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Fournette is the only one I see immediately moving into the workhorse role.

Mixon situation is kind of muddy at the moment. If the Bengals trade Hill it would clear things up nicely, if they don't then Mixon will have to show he's a upgrade over Hill and that may take time.

I don't see McCafferty being the starting RB, but rather the change of pace, pass catching RB. Stewart will remain the starter IMO.

Cook will start out as the backup and split carries, that could get turned around during the season.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

for the Chiefs Ware and West were pretty big disappointments, so they will likely have a very short leash...

this seems like a fantasy football coach talking, not a real football coach

4.3 YPC, 13.5 YPR, 1368 yds from scrimmage across 14 games (97.7yds/game) = Ware being a big disappointment?
Tough crowd, I'd hate to have to live up to your expectations, seems impossible.

I don't see Hunt making that big of a splash in year 1 as long as Ware is healthy, imo.
Could be the guy next year, but let's see him do something before saying he should leap frog an established RB that has been productive that last 2 seasons.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

this seems like a fantasy football coach talking, not a real football coach

4.3 YPC, 13.5 YPR, 1368 yds from scrimmage across 14 games (97.7yds/game) = Ware being a big disappointment?
Tough crowd, I'd hate to have to live up to your expectations, seems impossible.

I don't see Hunt making that big of a splash in year 1 as long as Ware is healthy, imo.
Could be the guy next year, but let's see him do something before saying he should leap frog an established RB that has been productive that last 2 seasons.

yes, he was a disappointment in real life too... Look deeper into his numbers. He only had 5 TDs, only had one 100 yard rushing game, and 1 100 receiving game. after week 6 he did not have 1 game of 100 or more yards from scrimmage(rushing and receiving).

All this for a team that recent history shows it to be a run first offense who lets running backs succeed more than anywhere else.

 

[TREFF]

Fournette is the only one I see immediately moving into the workhorse role.

Mixon situation is kind of muddy at the moment. If the Bengals trade Hill it would clear things up nicely, if they don't then Mixon will have to show he's a upgrade over Hill and that may take time.

I don't see McCafferty being the starting RB, but rather the change of pace, pass catching RB. Stewart will remain the starter IMO.

Cook will start out as the backup and split carries, that could get turned around during the season.

Just as Harold said, pretty much everything is awfully muddy after the Fournette situation.

Although i couldn't disagree more with the opinions in Cook/McAffrey...i see them in exact opposite roles as Harold sores. . With JStew reduced to a short yardage, give the main guy a breather role while McAffrey does the heavy lifting, and Cook being a change of pace, between the 20's guy while Murray gets the meaningful touches, especially the goaline work.

But, that vast differing of opinion is only indicative of just how muddy things can get. We're both relatively intelligent, getting opposite outcomes looking at the exact same circumstances

 

[TREFF]

yes, he was a disappointment in real life too... Look deeper into his numbers. He only had 5 TDs, only had one 100 yard rushing game, and 1 100 receiving game. after week 6 he did not have 1 game of 100 or more yards from scrimmage(rushing and receiving).

All this for a team that recent history shows it to be a run first offense who lets running backs succeed more than anywhere else.

Agreed. ..

I just like to point out those few times that out happens

 

[Brees#1]

My guess is Fournette, Mixon, McAffrey get almost all the work in their backfields. Cook and Perine get more than half. Hunt and Kamara get enough to be valuable and take over by the end of the year/next year.

The rest I'm less optimistic about. Mack may see 3rd down work. But I think as long as Gore is healthy he's got the job. Miller gets most of the work in Houston, Montgomery gets most of it in GB. Hyde and Williams could be interesting. Shanahan seems to love williams but I can't see Hyde going anywhere until after the season when his contact expires.

Also love the charts and data but one small correction. Shanahan wasn't in DC last year.

Kamara was drafted for the purpose of replicating the Sproles/Bush void.

 

[Brees#1]

this seems like a fantasy football coach talking, not a real football coach

4.3 YPC, 13.5 YPR, 1368 yds from scrimmage across 14 games (97.7yds/game) = Ware being a big disappointment?
Tough crowd, I'd hate to have to live up to your expectations, seems impossible.

I don't see Hunt making that big of a splash in year 1 as long as Ware is healthy, imo.
Could be the guy next year, but let's see him do something before saying he should leap frog an established RB that has been productive that last 2 seasons.

Also Ty Hill and Kelce were so hot, that KC was throwing more than running.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Also Ty Hill and Kelce were so hot, that KC was throwing more than running.

Yes, but did they use them more because their running game was inefficient or because they were doing so well??

 

[Brees#1]

No one was going to duplicate what JC did. KC did run the ball less, but Hll took a lot to the house and Kelce was a major red zone target. Hill made the receiving game more open because teams already had to account for Maclin.

 

[SteelersPride]

Yes, but did they use them more because their running game was inefficient or because they were doing so well??

doing well

 

[averagejoe]

These are all courtesy of Rotoworld. Some are conflicting.

Redskins coach Jay Gruden came away "impressed" with fourth-round RB Samaje Perine following rookie minicamp.

"You see him out there running around – were you impressed?" Gruden asked reporters rhetorically on Saturday. "Yeah, so was I. I like guys who come in here and love football and he does. He’s a very smart guy. You can tell that he’s going to be a very hard worker and, of course, he runs hard." Padless practice without veterans isn't exactly the hardest place to stand out, but it's another nugget to file away as Perine prepares to challenge Rob Kelley on early downs. Perine appears to be the favorite.​

ESPN Redskins reporter John Keim projects Samaje Perine as the team's Week 1 starter at running back.

Keim calls incumbent Rob Kelley a "complementary piece to Perine." The all-time leading rusher at Oklahoma, Perine packs 233 pounds onto a 5-foot-11 frame and caught 40 passes in his three-year college career despite sharing the Sooners' backfield with all-purpose dynamo Joe Mixon. In an efficient Redskins offense, Perine will offer considerable TD upside should he win the job.​

CSN Mid-Atlantic's J.P. Finlay expects Rob Kelley to remain the lead back in Washington.

Finlay reports the team has "been impressed" by Kelley's work this offseason, although if they were completely sold on him as the lead back they likely would not have drafted Samaje Perine in the fourth round. Even so, Finlay expects Perine to be more of a short-yardage back as a rookie. Finlay's colleague Rich Tandler also expects Kelley to keep the job throughout training camp, but he is less confident in his ability to hold off Perine during the season. This position battle will be one of the more interesting ones to watch during training camp.​

Jaguars coach Doug Marrone said No. 4 overall pick Leonard Fournette has to "earn" the starting job.

"Obviously he's shown that ability, but at the same sense, when you have the team, the one thing about a team is you have to earn that," Marrone said. "So he's going to have to go and show that he has to do that." Okay, champ. Fournette will open the season as the starter and dominate the backfield work as long as he is healthy.​

Coach Bill O'Brien named D'Onta Foreman as a rookie who reported to the team out of shape, and Foreman rode an exercise bike during the Texans' rookie minicamp practice on Saturday.

This is actually quite common for rookies, who spent the last several months flying around the country to meet with teams, then celebrating for two weeks after they were drafted. Still, it's notable that Foreman is out of shape enough that he isn't even allowed to practice yet. Foreman weighed 233 pounds at the Combine, but was listed at 249 at the University of Texas. Weight management is something he'll have to take seriously in the NFL.​

Panthers first-round RB Christian McCaffrey will be away from the team until mid-June.

He's still taking classes at Stanford and won't be available until the end of the quarter. McCaffrey was present for the Panthers' rookie minicamp last weekend so he shouldn't be too far behind his teammates even if he misses a chunk of OTAs. Ultimately this shouldn't affect how fantasy owners draft him.
​

According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Vikings plan to establish a "committee" at running back during training camp.

While Dalvin Cook is the favorite for touches, the Vikings aren't paying Latavius Murray over $4 million this year to ride the bench. Murray will at very least have a change-up and short-yardage role, while Jerick McKinnon remains the best receiver of the group. Among rookies, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, and Joe Mixon are all better re-draft fantasy bets than Cook.

​

ESPN Bengals reporter Katherine Terrell believes second-round RB Joe Mixon "will likely get a heavy dose of playing time right away."

Terrell expects the Bengals to use Mixon "in a variety of ways" including as a kick returner. With Giovani Bernard (knee) questionable for Week 1 and Jeremy Hill coming off back-to-back bad seasons, Mixon has several avenues to early production. In fact, Mixon has a good shot to unseat Hill in training camp.​

 

[eaglesnut]

I don't see Hunt making that big of a splash in year 1 as long as Ware is healthy, imo.
Could be the guy next year, but let's see him do something before saying he should leap frog an established RB that has been productive that last 2 seasons.

That's what I'm looking at there. Ware has had some trouble staying healthy. Huge upside possibly for Hunt in that Andy Reid offense, but Reid also likes to let his young RBs learn for a year. I agree with you that Hunt's odds for hitting his ceiling in year one is unlikely.