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Big Ten forecast for 2017: Good luck beating the Buckeyes
Here's Phil Steele's look at how things should unfold in the Big Ten:
East Division
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Urban Meyer has lost three bowl games in his career, and after the first two, he took home a national title the next season. Last year's squad was the least experienced in the FBS, and this year moves all the way up to No. 38 in the nation. The Buckeyes have one of the best offensive and defensive lines in the country, a veteran QB and all of their units rank in the top three of Big Ten with the exception of special teams (No. 9) in my ratings. They do have to play Michigan on the road but avoid Wisconsin out of the West and get a revenge match versus Penn State at home. Ohio State is my pick to represent the Big Ten in this year's College Football Playoff.
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
Heading into last year, all of the talk for the East title was either Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State. Lo and behold, the Big Ten champs at the end of the year were the Penn State Nittany Lions. This year's PSU team appears to be even better equipped, as it has 16 returning starters and goes from No. 81 on my experience rankings to No. 12, the highest of any Big Ten team, led by a pair of Heisman front-runners in QB Trace McSorley and RB Saquon Barkley. PSU has my No. 1 offense, No. 4 defense and No. 2 special-teams unit. After not being favored in six games last year, the Lions figure to be favored in all but one game this year -- Oct. 28 at Ohio State will be pretty important.
3. Michigan Wolverines
If this pick were based purely on the talent on the field, the Wolverines would be No. 1 or 2 in the Big Ten, as coach Jim Harbaugh has done a great job recruiting, despite the plethora of NFL talent (11 draft choices) that was lost. This team still has plenty of skill, but it does draw Wisconsin out of the West and has to play both the Badgers and Penn State on the road as well as host a loaded Ohio State team. While Michigan last year lost three of its last four games, its three losses were by five combined points. Despite picking the Wolverines third here, I believe they are fully capable of winning the East and the Big Ten.
4. Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers were 6-7 and actually make my list of most improved teams for a third straight year and will be trying for a third straight bowl. Last year they finished fourth in the East and this time have just 18 lettermen lost and rank sixth in the conference (No. 47 in the nation) on my experience rankings. They do draw Wisconsin out of the West, but their final three Big Ten foes were a combined 3-24 in conference play last year. The past two seasons they've needed a big finish to get to a bowl and this year, with nine starters returning on defense, actually have my No. 6-rated unit in the league.
5. Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans were 1-8 in Big Ten play but actually outgained league opponents by an average of 35.4 YPG. Since the end of spring, they have lost numerous players and were already an inexperienced team heading into the season -- that now makes them the second-least experienced team in the country. I could easily make a case for Michigan State to finish as high as fourth, but with the possibility of even more losses over the summer, I peg them here.
6. Maryland Terrapins
Coach D.J. Durkin did a fine job getting the Terps to a bowl game in his first season despite QB injuries. Maryland was just 3-6 in Big Ten play and was outgained by an average of 102.6 YPG in league play. This year, the Terrapins drop from No. 71 in my experience rankings to No. 96, but their schedule moves up to the 13th-toughest (they draw both Wisconsin and Northwestern out of the West). The Terps have some solid additions, such as QB Caleb Henderson, and now have seven starters back on defense. Despite the tough schedule, I could easily see them getting back to a bowl this year.
7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
If Rutgers had been a little more competitive last year, I could easily paint a scenario for them moving as high as fifth in the division. The Scarlet Knights have 14 returning starters, draw the bottom two teams out of the West, host Maryland (in the Bronx) and get Michigan State at home. They are a much improved team, especially at QB with the addition of Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin. They also have eight starters back on defense. Last year they were outscored in Big Ten play by an average score of 40-10 and were outgained by an average of 231.2 YPG. They'll be far more competitive and should bag a Big Ten win or two, but still get my call for the basement in the East.
Here's Phil Steele's look at how things should unfold in the Big Ten:
East Division
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Urban Meyer has lost three bowl games in his career, and after the first two, he took home a national title the next season. Last year's squad was the least experienced in the FBS, and this year moves all the way up to No. 38 in the nation. The Buckeyes have one of the best offensive and defensive lines in the country, a veteran QB and all of their units rank in the top three of Big Ten with the exception of special teams (No. 9) in my ratings. They do have to play Michigan on the road but avoid Wisconsin out of the West and get a revenge match versus Penn State at home. Ohio State is my pick to represent the Big Ten in this year's College Football Playoff.
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
Heading into last year, all of the talk for the East title was either Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State. Lo and behold, the Big Ten champs at the end of the year were the Penn State Nittany Lions. This year's PSU team appears to be even better equipped, as it has 16 returning starters and goes from No. 81 on my experience rankings to No. 12, the highest of any Big Ten team, led by a pair of Heisman front-runners in QB Trace McSorley and RB Saquon Barkley. PSU has my No. 1 offense, No. 4 defense and No. 2 special-teams unit. After not being favored in six games last year, the Lions figure to be favored in all but one game this year -- Oct. 28 at Ohio State will be pretty important.
3. Michigan Wolverines
If this pick were based purely on the talent on the field, the Wolverines would be No. 1 or 2 in the Big Ten, as coach Jim Harbaugh has done a great job recruiting, despite the plethora of NFL talent (11 draft choices) that was lost. This team still has plenty of skill, but it does draw Wisconsin out of the West and has to play both the Badgers and Penn State on the road as well as host a loaded Ohio State team. While Michigan last year lost three of its last four games, its three losses were by five combined points. Despite picking the Wolverines third here, I believe they are fully capable of winning the East and the Big Ten.
4. Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers were 6-7 and actually make my list of most improved teams for a third straight year and will be trying for a third straight bowl. Last year they finished fourth in the East and this time have just 18 lettermen lost and rank sixth in the conference (No. 47 in the nation) on my experience rankings. They do draw Wisconsin out of the West, but their final three Big Ten foes were a combined 3-24 in conference play last year. The past two seasons they've needed a big finish to get to a bowl and this year, with nine starters returning on defense, actually have my No. 6-rated unit in the league.
5. Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans were 1-8 in Big Ten play but actually outgained league opponents by an average of 35.4 YPG. Since the end of spring, they have lost numerous players and were already an inexperienced team heading into the season -- that now makes them the second-least experienced team in the country. I could easily make a case for Michigan State to finish as high as fourth, but with the possibility of even more losses over the summer, I peg them here.
6. Maryland Terrapins
Coach D.J. Durkin did a fine job getting the Terps to a bowl game in his first season despite QB injuries. Maryland was just 3-6 in Big Ten play and was outgained by an average of 102.6 YPG in league play. This year, the Terrapins drop from No. 71 in my experience rankings to No. 96, but their schedule moves up to the 13th-toughest (they draw both Wisconsin and Northwestern out of the West). The Terps have some solid additions, such as QB Caleb Henderson, and now have seven starters back on defense. Despite the tough schedule, I could easily see them getting back to a bowl this year.
7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
If Rutgers had been a little more competitive last year, I could easily paint a scenario for them moving as high as fifth in the division. The Scarlet Knights have 14 returning starters, draw the bottom two teams out of the West, host Maryland (in the Bronx) and get Michigan State at home. They are a much improved team, especially at QB with the addition of Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin. They also have eight starters back on defense. Last year they were outscored in Big Ten play by an average score of 40-10 and were outgained by an average of 231.2 YPG. They'll be far more competitive and should bag a Big Ten win or two, but still get my call for the basement in the East.
