I think he gets in his last year. Raines received just 55% in his 8th year compared to the 58.6% for Edgar. So I think he's trending better than Raines was at this point. It won't be next year as there are going to be 2 holdovers that are getting in (Hoffman and Vlad) and I think two first-ballot guys getting in (Chipper and Thome).
Bonds was also a first-ballot Hall of Famer before he started juicing.
2020 and 2021 classes aren't very strong. Over the next 3 years, I think there are just 5 definite HOFers added. And I mean "I know they're getting in, even though I may not agree with it." Compare that to the previous 3 years, when there were probably 8.
Those are my 5. I didn't think Ortiz was a shoe-in, until this year. I think Edgar gets in his last ballot and Ortiz gets in pretty easily. Like I said, I'm 99% he gets there.
Really? Santana has 1500 fewer innings. That's huge. And the ERA+ difference is 13. Which is pretty big for a career (essentailly the difference between Randy Johnson and Justin Verlander), but not large enough to make up the fact that Mussina has 16 seasons where he qualified for the ERA title and Santana has 7.
Helton, Pettitte, and Oswalt for 2019 as well. I wouldn't vote for them, but some big names.
They're big names, Helton is probably the closest to HOF worthy of those, less of a fringe guy than Andruw Jones or Bobby Abreu. Pettitte will probably get in 4-5 years down the line because of the postseason bias. Oswalt is a name, but he's basically a right-handed Andy Pettitte with 14 less postseason wins. No chance he gets in unless the voters lose their minds.
No it's not JUST quantity, never said it was. Yes, Mussina probably has only 1 season that would be in the top 5, but he would have 12 out of the top 20 seasons, with some other valuable seasons left over. I'd put Mussina in over Santana, who I would be borderline on.
I'm confident Edgar will get in. His trend is better than Raines was at this point.
Beltre is going to end up with 3000 hits and 500 HRs. So he'll get in for both.
