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Good..but not Great

Discussion in 'West Virginia Mountaineers' started by GoldRusher, Dec 30, 2016.

  1. Slaton10

    Slaton10 Well-Known Member

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    Brother..you gotta ask yourself..do you think Stewarts 9-3 seasons would have held up with a Big12 Schedule?..I am thinking no...

    And we will disagree about how the wins and losses came because those same teams you mention having down years got wins against Wv the previous year and ain't complaining how they got them!:D

    As for players wanting to play for winners...some might..but I think there are more that want to go to a program they can play early and thrive on whatever side of the ball they play on..

    Your comment on the Golden Years of Wv football compared to now is a fair and valid view.life was good rolling in a weak Big East most of the fan base liked winning 9 plus games..but would bitch that the program got no respect ..tell me...did anyone in the country..except for the Wv fanbase for some reason.. think Wv's record wasn't legit this year?..I guess I am one of those who likes the upgraded competition..I think it adds value to what the program is all about now...and if we don't win the conference once every 5 years I am okay with it..because of things that happened this year.. Western Michigan..undefeated and didn't even get a look at being considered for the playoff...and Houston who was an early popular pick to break the power 5 strangle hold for the playoffs lost their first game then were pretty much cooked..so getting to a NC game outside of the conference we are in is really not possible..

    But...I guess its what you feel better about on Sunday morning ...its a personal preference..

    I agree recruiting classes need to be top 30 on the average...its never going to happen.

    Luck fired Stewart based on his ability to coach and recruit..and the fact that attendance was dipping..

    As far as what Luck would have done...IMHO he would have extended the contract knowing how it impacts recruiting....but I would say that he would have certainly had the balls to fire him and paid the buyout if he had to as well..

    As far as last years schedule...I am not sure any team in the Big12 could have done better ...when you include the travel..if so maybe they win one more game than WV did..
     



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  2. bbwvfan

    bbwvfan Well-Known Member

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    Luck fired Stewart because he lost confidence in him following consecutive losses to SU and UConn when his offense could not score more than 14 points against either school. When he dug deeper into the equation, you could see the fact WVU did not field a team with 85 scholarship players, and the recruiting for the year was doing nothing to correct that.

    As Coach Nehlen recently said, Billy and Rich had the greatest job in America. Every coach in America would want to coach at a place like WVU where you were guaranteed 9 wins every season.

    I have to agree with our HOF coach!!
     
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  3. bbwvfan

    bbwvfan Well-Known Member

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    In 3 years, Billy faced a grand total of 6 year end ranked opponents.

    He faced a grand total of 2 year end top 10 opponents.

    In 2014 alone, Dana faced 4 year end ranked teams. Of these 4, he faced 3 top 10 year end opponents.

    Billy won zero games against year end top 10 over 3 years. Dana won one game against top 10 in '14.
     
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  4. WVUDAD

    WVUDAD Well-Known Member

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    No non "power" team will EVER get in the four team "playoff", the very reason that the "playoff", BSC, bowl alliance, and bowl coalition were created was to insure that no team could "win" the "championship" that didn't have a name. The B12 is the worst of the five "power" leagues, and has been shown, no one not named Texas or Oklahoma will ever be picked to be in the "playoff" without a great many stars aligning. Voting for a "champion", with 3/4 of the teams playing div 1A football being ineligible before the season starts is PURE BS!! BTW if you remember, your butt buddy hired Holgorsen to take us to championships, not to be a .500 team who gets lucky once every five years when OU and Texas have down years.......
     
  5. Slaton10

    Slaton10 Well-Known Member

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    Well...first off Happy New Year to you DAD!...and I do mean that sincerely!..

    I am going to disagree with you on the fact the Big12 is the worst power 5 conference..its all cyclical...we all were not talking too long ago just how bad the ACC was...the Pac12 IMHO is marginally better..Colorado/WASH/Wazzu and Utah seem to be playing better....Oregon/UCLA/Cal/Arizona/Oregon State and Arizona State ......not so much..

    and if you value the Bowl Season records seems to me that the Big12 finished second in the standings!

    Going to disagree with you about either Texas and OU or bust for the conference...Wv wins the Big12 even with a one loss they are in ...in most years..

    Luck did say that he hired DH because he believed he was more equipped to take this program to a championship...he was 1 win away from doing to this year..they beat OU we win a big12 championship...take 4 turnovers out of the Okie State game..we are in the playoff....good things are ahead brother!
     
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  6. WVUDAD

    WVUDAD Well-Known Member

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    Happy new year to you as well, brother!!!! WVU wasn't going to the "playoff" this year regardless, we were the lowest rated of all the "power 5" two loss teams. I think it has been demonstrated in the three years of the four team "playoff" that name means more than anything else, we were told Baylor and TCU were excluded in favor of Ohio State in 2014 because the B12 did not crown a champion, that being league champ meant a LOT, last year, Oklahoma, with the SAME record gets in.....then this year, league championship be damned, we want Ohio State...... The system is there to insure the Ohio State, Alabama, Mich, ND types are there, and that no one without a name gets a shot.
     
  7. Slaton10

    Slaton10 Well-Known Member

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    I can't say your wrong...after watching USC sky rocket up the polls with 3 losses and give up and the love for Ohio State...and then watching one get destroyed in one game and the other give up 49 points albiet a win against the Big 12 champs who gave up 52 points in that game ..it is a point well taken..

    But for argument sake you said the Big12 was the worst...I give you thoseexamples of the big10's best and the number 2 team in the pac12 ..throw in the number 1 team in Washington losing..( it was a good game though) and I feed you the two top Big 12 teams handling their games easily and one of those games a basic home game for Auburn and you have to ask yourself how good is the best conference and what is the gap with the worst power 5 conference...IMHO they are all about the same...with the exception of an Alabama and maybe one or two others...

    I have said this before ...I am not sure if I can tell anymore if we are all watching good football top to bottom in a conference anymore..or even at the top it seems..the game has changed so much I think it is all smoke and mirrors at times..
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2017
  8. Anotherwvufan

    Anotherwvufan Well-Known Member

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    I think most of us agree that Billy would have won at least 4-5 conference games most years if he stayed at WVU when we went to the B12. For Ollie, that was not good enough and he brought Holgs in. I think the same thing would have happened to Holgs last year under Ollie. He may have even taken the Shane route and let another year go to save on the buyout.

    As for respect in the B12, we were lowest ranked 1 loss team, then 2 loss team, and now 3 loss team in the Power 5. Remember 2007 when we made it to #2 in the polls despite having a loss in the lowly Big East. Has the B12 turned into the Big East West edition? Can it be said that we may have the easiest route to the playoff by sweeping the B12. Who believes that if we beat Oklahoma and won the conference at 10-1 we would have made the playoff? Fat chance in my book. In the B12 unless you are named Oklahoma or Texas, don't expect to be in the playoffs unless you go undefeated.
     
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  9. GoldRusher

    GoldRusher Well-Known Member

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    I dunno, we lose 1 game, at ranked OSU then win out and finish as Big12 champion then IMO we get in but... we didn't do that. In fact every time we had our chance to make a statement, the only statement that we made was that the committee was right. Good team, not a great one.
     
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  10. bbwvfan

    bbwvfan Well-Known Member

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    Dana was hired by Luck to win a NC when WVU was still a part of the BE which was so weak it required an exemption by the Presidential Oversight Committee to retain its AQ status.

    I argued with Slaton quite a bit back at CBS on which program had the easiest path to a NC... football or basketball.

    I felt the football team had the easiest path. 5 OOC games... only 1 or 2 against an AQ opponent... then 1-2 IC games against a team with a pulse. From '05-'11, WVU never faced more than 2 ranked teams during the regular season.

    In 2010, the Big East was terrible. And, Billy won but 5 games IC. It was a WVU team loaded with talent. Talent rich enough to win 10 games the following year with the right coach.
     
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  11. bbwvfan

    bbwvfan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah... I truly never understood the beef anyone had over WVU's ranking this year. IMO, the committee was actually quite generous to our team. We beat no one this year... not one ranked team. Lost badly to the only two ranked teams we faced. And, we were given a #16 ranking by the committee.

    There were few computer rankings that had us any higher.
     
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  12. bbwvfan

    bbwvfan Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure the insecure among us... those who like sitting in a big truck... will be shocked by the computer rankings.

    The Massey site has a Massey Composite Rating... combining all computer rankings... these include those used by the BCS... Massey, Anderson, Wolfe, Billingsley, and Colley. Sagarin's ratings are here too. Of interest to those who are secure... to those who don't have little man syndrome and don't need to sit in a big truck... there is a ranking called
    College Football Playoff FourCast. This site combined the BCS Computers with Sagarin to establish their rankings.

    So... are you ready... the Composite Rating first...
    1. Alabama
    2. the Ohio State
    3. Clemson
    4. Washington
    The College Football Playoff FourCast...
    1. Alabama
    2. the Ohio State
    3. Washington
    4. Clemson
     
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  13. WVUDAD

    WVUDAD Well-Known Member

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    .............WTF, the "right coach" went 5-2 in the BE, just as the "wrong coach" did.........the "right coach" went 10-3, the "wrong coach" went 9-4 including a bowl loss in which the offensive coaches didn't give a damn, quit making excuses for Holgorsen, he is learning his job and improving, but this years ten wins was propped dramatically by a MUCH weaker conference than the past several years, Baylor and TCU had MAJOR meltdowns from what they have had the past few years, which is the reason we won ten games.......
     
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  14. Slaton10

    Slaton10 Well-Known Member

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    I hear what you're saying...my contention is the data itself...at the end of the day it "IS" based off of human opinion of the value first in the teams, I would surmise the historical data would weigh in and then the conference value...but at the end of the day its slanted...its not as fluid as the pros...it changes dramatically in college football...with the life span of a player being what 2 or 3 years on average these days...I think its hard...if someone asked me how to rank teams I am not sure I could for playoff purposes in the current format... I do agree with DAD it appeared...at least to me that there was a behind the scenes push to get national branded programs to the top...and I draw that conclusion by the fact that ESPN for example is going to lose 75 million dollars just for televising the Texas/Oakland game...I am sure they have taken losses on other games as well..so to me and I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory but a business is going to find a way to not lose money and offset losses ...they have to be influencing some of these metrics behind the scenes..and all of these conferences are in bed with that network...so I do believe that DAD is right to some degree...

    That's why I believe an 8 or even 10 team playoff takes that possibility out of the equation..the right teams have a much better chance of getting in and the networks likely get the teams they want in..

    That's what makes March Madness more legitimate...

    I mean seriously does anyone thinkn ESPN or Fox or whoever cares if its a level and honest process of who wins the National Championship?
     
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  15. WVUDAD

    WVUDAD Well-Known Member

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    That is something I just do not get with college football, Slaton, people LOVE to pour piss on the underdogs, LOVE to say they don't belong, run their mouths about strength of schedule, etc, but want to deny them the opportunity to prove their merit where it matters, ON THE FIELD, YET those same folks root hard for the underdogs in March and April, it makes no sense to me at all. I would love to see a REAL 16 team playoff in CFB, all ten league champs, plus six at large teams, no byes, just play.
     
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  16. WVUDAD

    WVUDAD Well-Known Member

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    There is no shock in the computer rankings at all, the algorithms that they use are slanted toward the name teams first and foremost, second toward the "power" leagues, third by geography. I could write an algorithm that would put WVU as #1 every year, so using computer "polls" which are biased by whoever wrote the "program", no different than the human polls. Let's have a real playoff, with EVERY leagues champion, if OSU and Alabama are REALLY better, why are they so scared to play the Boise, WMU, Houston, Etc?
     
  17. bbwvfan

    bbwvfan Well-Known Member

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    I'll have to look up some formulas for the computers when I get home from work.

    I think you are way off here, but I will get back to you.
     
  18. bbwvfan

    bbwvfan Well-Known Member

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    College Football: How the BCS Would Have Ranked the Teams


    Approximating the BCS Standings requires using the coaches poll, the A.P. poll (the best stand-in for the Harris poll, which was created by and for the BCS and no longer exists), and four former BCS computer rankings: Anderson & Hester (which I co-created), Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe. The two other BCS computer rankings, Sagarin and Massey, no longer publish the versions of their rankings that met the BCS's requirement of not incorporating margin of victory, so we can't know what their rankings would have yielded.

    (The BCS dropped the high and the low computer rankings each week and kept the middle four. Since the two computer rankings dropped in a given week might have included none, one, or two of the four BCS computer rankings to which we now have access, the most sensible way to approximate the computer portion of the BCS Standings would seem to be to tally these four computer rankings with the high and low rankings dropped, tally them a second time without dropping any of the four, and then average those two tallies.)

    Putting all of this together, here's an estimate of how the top-12 in the BCS Standings would have looked this week, with each team's point-value listed (the committee doesn't provide point values, so fans don't have a sense of the spacing between the teams):

    Approximate BCS Standings:

    1. (12-0) Alabama, 1.000

    2. (11-1) Ohio State, .955

    3. (11-1) Clemson, .915

    4. (11-1) Washington, .858
     
  19. bbwvfan

    bbwvfan Well-Known Member

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    http://www.colleyrankings.com/matrate.pdf

    The dude is a PhD. I ain't gonna try to look at his statistics for determining SOS, but he says it eliminates bias toward conference, history or tradition. I figure his argument is gold, because I've never heard or read anyone calling him out on it.

    Most formulas for computers are basically the same. He describes his deal. Essentially... you only enter FBS wins and losses as input. Margin of victory does not matter in his formula, but it is included in others. He does not account for where the game was played, but this is considered by others.

    I think anyone claiming computers being subjective when they've been proven to be opposite... is arguing something with little evidence to support.
     
  20. bbwvfan

    bbwvfan Well-Known Member

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    If you wanna go deep...

    https://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/papers/matrix-based-methods-for.pdf

    Really good article. Bottom line, look at the two tables which compare the Human Polls to Colley's Matrix and a statistical formula called Analytical Heirarchy Process.

    The results are all fairly similar. The computers hurt the little guy when its SOS was poor. The SOS was determined by opponents played... their records against who they played.

    Conspiracy theories are neat to think about. As we know, the White House knew the Germans were gonna bomb Pearl Harbor...