Good / Bad Reds Comparison predictions

[Redsfan1507]

Just for giggles...

Will Suarez have more HR than Errors this year ?

Will BP hit more HR than DP's he hits into ?

Will Billy Hamilton or Jay Bruce have the higher batting average this year ?

Who ends up with most W this year as a Red-Homer Bailey or Alfredo Simon ?

Over/under on number of games Devin Mesoraco catches this year: 90

 

[JohnU]

Suarez will improve at 3B, so this year is a learning curve. Hamilton flat-out can't hit, so no matter what he does, it's that he is a runner/defensive replacement. Gotta keep him on the roster, though.
Phillips will run out of gas pretty soon as the team struggles. Expect Peraza sooner than later. I don't think Mesoraco is going to play 90 games.
Simon will be OK part of the time.
I honestly don't know what to make of Bruce. He seems to be figuring it out against 2 teams. The league will pay attention and adjust to him. He's predictable. I am not optimistic.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I pretty much agree, just wanted to get some perspective on opinions.

I think Suarez will have several more E's than HR, if he plays all his games in the Infield.

I'm positive BP wil DP more than HR. Thats a problem if he has 12 one and two run HR, and his 23 DP's are all with the bases loaded, trying to pull that outside curveball.

I too hope Bruce has learned something, but not enough to be optimistic he can hit .250 or better over a full season. It defies logic why it seems to be impossible to teach a fast guy to hit an 8 foot dribbler, but if BH could do that half the time, he might win a batting title.

I think Bailey will be back later instead of sooner, and since he's largely been a .500 ish pitcher on better teams, I'd take the bet that a much lesser pitcher like Simon may win more games over a full season than Homer can in a half.

I don't think Mesoraco can catch 90 games. It's why I would have let him play the OF half the time, assuming he hits like a middle of the order hitter. I will be interested if Meso can play healthy all year, to compare his stats in roughly half a season to any similar AB Reds platoon LF this year. Maybe DuVall and Schebler may suprise me, and of course there is a real possibility Mesoraco might only hit .230/9/45 too.

 

[eburg5000]

I read where Suarez is playing SS tonight. De Jesus being 0 for the year might have something to do with that. I know it is early but Schebler's power and speed is impressive ... so far, and he can play center field.

 

[JohnU]

Duvall is showing to be a better hitter than Mesoraco.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Third base may as well be the moon to Suarez. He may well improve at 3B, but with out a significant improvement he may still be below average. Hard to put a number on the home runs, but if it's less than 25 the errors win.

Currently BP has 186 career home runs and 186 GIDP. His 2016 totals are 1 and 1.....sounds like it could be a tie, but with declining power I'd give the edge to the DP's.

I think Jay Bruce will be around .250, Hamilton will not.

Mesoraco's batting stance has been pretty upright to start the season. Makes me think his leg stamina isn't up to par yet. Coming off a torn labrum he's already had groin and quad strain set backs which hasn't helped. His durability has to be a question mark moving forward. He's already in his 28 age season and has less than 1000 caeeer AB's and has never caught more than 937 innings in a season. He's exceeded 100 games only once in his 10 years as a professional, so I'd take the under.

 

[eburg5000]

If everyone on these can see all that strain catching is bothering Mesoraco. Why not try him at another positon. Left field might be a good start.

 

[JohnU]

If everyone on these can see all that strain catching is bothering Mesoraco. Why not try him at another positon. Left field might be a good start.

The question is whether Mesoraco is a better hitter than DuVall, who is obviously a better left fielder.

 

[eburg5000]

Just a thought. Tim Melville isn't the answer to the Reds problems. At least not in the near future.

 

[eburg5000]

Also Suarez might be the worst 3rd baseman I've ever seen in a Reds uniform

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I'd like a do-over.
If Suarez is going to hit more HR's than errors, he may have to break the single season record.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Obviously, if the Reds had a plan prior to this year, it hasn't been that successful. A lot of starting pitchers and leftfielders doesn't necessarily mean they have depth there. DuVall has looked pretty good, and Schebler has had his moments. Mesoraco is hitting the ball, but he's hit right at people. He obviously has had leg issues, one would have to believe probably related to the hip. But, 2 weeks isn't enough of a sample size for me to believe any of these are season long trends.

Like the pitching, I expect position players to evolve/revolve as the season progresses. The Reds haven't had a CF that has hit so little for so long since Corey Patterson, so Billy is currently swallowing most of the water he's trying to tread. Any time you see an infielder backing up on hard hit grounders, it's a bad sign...and the ball has played Suarez more than he's played the ball, so far. Any change of position for him ( or Mesoraco) has downstream impacts for other players, who at least currently, are doing what was expected of them. It's a problem.

 

[eburg5000]

Even if they did move Suarez, would he be any better in the outfield. You would think he could, but who knows for sure. Plus Duval in the two weeks that he has been out in left field has done a good job. I know it's only a short sample size, but with all the problems the Reds have had with LF, lets give him a chance and see what happens. Mesoraco fits in there to.
The only thing I know for sure is, If Suarez continues to make errors at the pace he is. He has to be moved. One way or the other

 

[JohnU]

DuVall can play 3B, but i don't know how well. I think the best guess is, the Reds will just Suarez learn on the job.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds currently are ranked last in fielding %. Suarez has led the way, but overall team defense hasn't been what we're used to seeing.

Duvall played a lot of 3B in the minors, but using his fielding % as a measuring stick he'd be projected to commit 45 errors over a full season. The field conditions are better at the MLB level and using his minor league fielding % is a unreliable method, but it suggest he's not a skilled infielder. I think he's done a pretty nice job in LF.

 

[Redsfan1507]

To be honest, I think there are lots of guys that can look serviceable over 200 at bats. More than that, most show some deficiency that "bologna" premise shows up...you know, not bad once in a while, but the more you serve it the less you like it. I don't know if DuVall is one of those guys, but I do know they weren't counting on him taking Suarez' job, and if he does who plays LF, Suarez ? Never seen a big league infielder back up on the ball- maybe the shorter distance at 3b has Suarez afraid to get in front of it ? I'm dumbfounded.

 

[Redsfan1507]

To the general bad D, even BP and Bruce have played unusually bad. Possible the terrible pitching and slew of walks is putting the D to sleep. A few passed balls looked like cross ups, and wild pitches aren't rare enough so far. They've had a couple pitchers pitch well, and 3-4 hot hitters. Other than that, this team hasn't looked particularly good. It's why the record is going the current direction.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

IMo, it's easier for a SS to move to 2B than 3b. The spin on the ball is different off a RHB/ LHB at 2B, but the reaction time is the same. The biggest difference is the throw. Not only the arm strength to make the longer throw, but a SS needs to have a faster pace to gather and release to get the runner at 1B.

Fans marvel at Brandon Phillips play at 2B, but his style and fundamentals would play poorly at SS, but he's a Gold Glove at second. I think Suarez is better suited to play 2B from a skill set perspective as well, but if he continues to get bigger the loss of range may leave 3B and LF as the only options on this roster.

The best defensive 3B in the organization is probably Seth Mejias-Brean. He's at AAA this season and was the Reds' minor league POY a couple seasons ago. He's struggled a bit offensively the last two years and this may be a make or break season for him.

At this point the Reds need someone to step up and show they can play the position or add it to the shopping list. Hard to find a good fielding 3B that can hit that won't break the bank.

 

[JohnU]

St Louis and Pittsburgh have gotten by with ordinary 3B and have succeeded. Bryant is a work in progress with the Cubs. I think Suarez at least has a pretty decent arm, so if he learns to knock 'em down with his chest, at least they won't be doubles. Personally, I think it's a fairly low-level problem for the moment.

 

[eburg5000]

Last night after the lose to the Rockies Price said, he only had one certified guy in the bullpen, and that was Hoover the closer. Everyone else is up in the air