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Galko: Mahomes Chiefs QB1, Watson makes sense (#2?); interest in Webb, Peterman, and Kaaya

Fountain City Blues

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Was in a Sportingnews article. Seem to be prioritizing ceiling.
 

Clayton

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Was in a Sportingnews article. Seem to be prioritizing ceiling.
Makes sense that they are prioritizing ceiling. I'm not sure how much validity I put all of this at this stage. Rams were rumored to be really high on Wentz at this point, for example.

The 2 names not listed are Trubisky and Kizer and I have a hard time seeing the Chiefs getting to the 5th QB in round 1 but the top 2 are likely out of question, too. Whoever they might be.

Big thing to look out for is that the Texans are likely to trade up so Chiefs might be throwing out a smokescreen. Davis Webb in rd1 is a reach even with that cannon of an arm. Maybe he is an Eli Manning type but more likely than not you're looking at a Nick Foles or maybe a Mike Glennon.
 

Fountain City Blues

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Seems like Watson seems to be attracting the most bluster in either direction
 
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cdumler7

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Seems like Watson seems to be attracting the most bluster in either direction

I just can't stand the terrible decision making of Watson. Yeah he won some big games and had some big moments for his team. Can't discount that but also can't overlook the fact that there are a lot of college QB's that start for 2-3 years that don't come close to throwing as many interceptions as he did in just one season. I don't think he can read a defense. He goes with his 1st read and just hopes the coaches called the right play. Those improv skills that he used in college with his feet just won't be there as much in the NFL so him having to rely on actually reading defenses and going through his progressions will quickly catch up to him.
 

Clayton

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I just can't stand the terrible decision making of Watson. Yeah he won some big games and had some big moments for his team. Can't discount that but also can't overlook the fact that there are a lot of college QB's that start for 2-3 years that don't come close to throwing as many interceptions as he did in just one season. I don't think he can read a defense. He goes with his 1st read and just hopes the coaches called the right play. Those improv skills that he used in college with his feet just won't be there as much in the NFL so him having to rely on actually reading defenses and going through his progressions will quickly catch up to him.
The terrible decision making is why he is being talked about in the 2nd half of the first round, though.

Whether its Andy Reid or Alex Smith, the Chiefs get the most YAC in the league IIRC. When you see a stat like that combined with Alex Smith's pretty notoriously limited 'ball in air' stats, you get a picture of a team that isnt really looking for someone to constantly challenge downfield. A lot of the issues (IIRC) and a lot of the upside from Watson came when he challenged downfield and either overestimated his WRs ability to win a matchup (A Greatest Show on Turf type of turnover) or he simply threw the ball wrong (a Bortles/Winston/sitting on the bench type of turnover).

Winston himself had issues but was still a #1 pick. Watson has a couple of potential issues on top of that, too, but its definitely hard to say how he'll translate into the league at the next level. I'm not super high on Watson but I'm high enough to think that he has a good chance of being better than Alex Smith.
 

Fountain City Blues

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Where will Mahomes be drafted? I asked that to six executives this week, and each replied that he'll come off the board in the first round. When pressed for a destination, the executives gave Kansas City four votes and Houston two.

From Matt Miller. Sure seems like the writing is on the wall that the Chiefs prefer Mahomes. I am not big on him and would prefer Kizer and Watson, but with Reid I'd be willing to give it a chance at this point. Wouldn't be the first time Reid has surprised me at QB going back to his time with the Eagles.
 

Clayton

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From Matt Miller. Sure seems like the writing is on the wall that the Chiefs prefer Mahomes. I am not big on him and would prefer Kizer and Watson, but with Reid I'd be willing to give it a chance at this point. Wouldn't be the first time Reid has surprised me at QB going back to his time with the Eagles.
A big thing with Mahomes is that he did most of his damage outside of the pocket often on broken plays. The Mahomes defenders would point to his lack of talent around him but thats generally a bad sign.

PFFs thing on Kizer is that he did most of his action with the Play Action. I'm not sure I know enough about the QB position to know which red flag is worse but they both needed some help and they both lacked surrounding NFL talent so its hard to project. Neither one of which are really west coast kind of QBs right out of the gate.

Mahomes needs all sorts of work with his timing and footwork. The arm talent is there but its Matt Stafford level and not superhuman arm level. I do wonder how difficult of a job Alex Smith has when he is mostly doing dump passes to guys getting major YAC but I guess we'll find out shortly. In any given year, I figure an older, average guy like Alex Smith has about a 20% chance of regressing and a 20% chance of having a major injury lasting for a good chunk of the season. I'd like someone at least a little bit up to NFL speed and Mahomes might be a bit more refined than Watson. Watson, while very accomplished, is coming from Clemson and that seems like a crapshoot.

I saw Todd McShay had a 2nd round grade on all of the top QB prospects. The thing with McShay's board is that he only had about 20-25 players with a 1st round grade. Doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure that a lot of these QBs are coming off the board at the end of rd1.
 

NJBuckO's

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I doubt the Texans would pass over Mahomes if he's still there at 25, so if the Chiefs like him they probably have to move up 2-3 spots. I don't what that costs in terms of picks but i'm guessing either a 2nd or 3rd? Sitting Mahomes behind Smith for 2y could help him immensely but some of his gunslinger stuff needs to be fine tuned. I'd stay away from Kizer and Trubisky will be gone most likely. Watson would work at 27 or maybe you could even trade back 3-4 spots and still get him plus an extra pick{s}. Peterman and Davis are intriguing in some ways but I think they need to either go all in on one of the top 3-4 or wait until next year.
 
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