Finishing out the season

[JohnU]

It would appear that the brain-dead coaching staff for the Reds is making zero attempt to improve the staff's performance, leading me to wonder if they expect these guys to work on it in a mirror over the winter.

 

[eburg5000]

The Reds pitchers have allowed 57 runs in the last 8 games. Not finishing out the season on a hopeful note.

 

[JohnU]

My only hope is that they have enough gumption to at least put up a fight against the Cardinals.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Gumption aside, the Reds are under-armed against almost every team they face.

Not surprising, with a dugout full of pitchers that never threw much in September, much less more than 150 innings in a season....they can't find pitchers willing or able to start now.

At some point, reality says they have to bite the bullet and have some of these pitchers stretch their capacity. I get the preference of building up to a full season SP innings for young arms, but when you have a team that is allergic to paying a 3rd or 4th year player even an arbitration salary, better not wait 3 years before you can fill a pitching staff in September. If the Reds have a plan to solve this equation, I'd like them to show their work. I need evidence.

Iglesias had a nice "break", but I can't see how it saves his arm to go from pitching once a week for 5-6 innings, to being asked to pitch 4 times a week 2 innings at a clip. Personally, I'd start him. Let's not fool ourselves into believing because this bullpen is so bad, the Reds can't survive without Iglesias in the pen, or even that starting him would increase his injury risk. They used those excuses on Chapman before shedding his once in a generation arm for little or nothing. I think although he's due for a big free agent raise in the next year or two, Chapman makes "only" about $7M this year by the way, or about what Todd Frazier made...or about the AVERAGE MLB salary. Don't get me wrong- the Reds would be far WORSE at the plate AND at the gate without Votto, but whoever was doing the Reds payroll planning, obviously had strengths in something other than math....or baseball.

So, sadly...If the Reds were a stock, I'm not even suggesting buying low. Until the team can pitch, at least to the 162 game level without giving up record MLB HR numbers, everything else is pretty much moot point. They didn't help themselves by slipping down several places on defense this year, either. 99 errors and counting. I like Votto as a hitter, but he's a dancing bear at 1b. Suarez may have improved in the 2nd half, but he's still a liability at 3b. The OF other than Hamilton, hasn't been that great either. Barnhart's done fine at C, but Cabrera may be one of the worst mitts I've seen in a long time. Sure hope Mesoraco and Bailey come back strong...and the Easter Bunny is looking for a discount job in ST.

This team needs a lot of work roster-wise, and money ( unfortunately) it isn't going to make, putting this type of product on the field.

 

[eburg5000]

I am not sure what Strailys contract is, but he deserves a raise. Without him the Reds could have possibly lost well over 100 games, and set a team record for losses

 

[JohnU]

Obviously we have a lot of time to evaluate the roster moving forward but a couple of things loomed large the last 2 weeks.

Hamilton is a much more valuable player than many of us knew.
A quality veteran starter fixes half the front half of the pitching problem.
I still don't see that this dugout staff has done anything positive. The pitching coaches number 3 or 4 now and the pitching has progressively gotten worse. Somebody wants somebody to fail.
Adam Duvall is running on fumes.

 

[eburg5000]

I agree with you about Hamilton. The Reds have had a hard time scoring runs sense he has been out of the lineup. But more importantly is his defense in center field.
It will be interesting evaluating this team when the season is over. The main problem I see going into next year will be the pitching starting and bullpen. I'd like to see the starters instead of going 5 or 6 innings go 7 or 8. maybe that would help the bullpen a little. but the Reds need to get rid of half the bullpen.
I also think it's time for a coaching change. I think Prices contract is up . maybe time to put him in the unemployment line.

 

[JohnU]

The only pitchers who came out of camp ready to pitch were Strailly and the bullpen and Strailly was in the bullpen to start the season. Most of these guys spent a lot of time rehabbing instead of pitching.
Finnegan should have been on an innings limit.
Hoover, Cingrani, Jumbo, Ohlendorf, Wood and a couple of other so-so guys should never have made the club and I guess we can blame a lot of people for that. Rebuilding is one thing but gutting it out is something different. You don't benefit in MLB by watching bad pitchers make the same mistakes over and over again.
Cingrani should be DFA.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Heres some depressing math you already know...since MLB went to 30 teams (from 24), there are 72 pitchers currently on MLB rosters, that would be in the minors before expansion. That's a little over 2 players per MLB team, on average...My personal opinion is, most of those aren't on teams with payrolls above $125M /year though, they are far more heavily weighted on the more "discount" rosters, by economic necessity. In all fairness, that also means there are 78 formerly un-deserving MLB position players, too...and ditto, they probably aren't equally distributed on the big dollars rosters either...not much past arbitration, or free agency, for sure. I think I can count about 3 times more than that average per team, just on the Reds roster alone.

That isn't likely to change with better coaching, scouting, or new taxes for stadiums. The Reds are in the unique conundrum not to just have to trim some payroll, their roster budget isn't just restricted to prohibit trading for above average salaried players, they can't even afford to keep their formerly cheap young players if they produce at average MLB production, beyond their first or second arbitration years. That means if they play well, you gotta dump them. IMO, NO MLB farm system is productive enough to produce a dozen or more new faces every three years, capable of competing for a title. NONE. Does THAT sound like a feasible plan to get better without a lot more money ?

This has been a franchise that was most consistently a winner before free agency and 21st century MLB finance. The BRM had a roster that would cost $250M/year today. It's nothing new, it's just a much higher stakes game now.. Take away half the Yankees payroll from the 20's thru today, and they might have half a dozen World Series Titles, instead of more than two dozen.

It doesn't mean the Reds can't have a baseball team, or even that they can't win. It just means they aren't likely to more than your average 30:1 field horse at the Preakness. When that lottery number comes up, it's not recommended for your manager to be bitching about the last year of his contract or the "pressure" of "urgency".

It's a tough business. Most fans would be terrible GM's, because they would be too quick to overpay flashes in the pan, hang on too long to players just reaching their prime, and wouldn't spend enough money in the low minors. IMO, GM's and owners that listen most to fans, either wind up drowning in the red and have to sell off, or get chained to a couple of long term contracts that prevent them from financing a winner for a decade.


Small teams have to be smarter, right ? I never saw see Bronson Arroyo or Mike Leake as deserving of blocking Aroldis Chapman's rotation bid. I wouldn't have allowed Dusty Baker or Brian Price to either. If you see a once in a generation player, I'd like to believe you could both use him, and pay him, to the teams AND the players best advantage. 2 no hitters in a roughly .500 career wouldn't have made me think signing Bailey instead of Cueto was a better value. Sorry, but spending $8M a year on 37 year old LF's 5 years from their best season, or $12M on injured closers that never threw a pitch, or even $2M/ year on 3 consecutive "veteran utility infielders" all add up to more stupidity than just spending 1/5 of the yearly payroll on Joey Votto, who does at least draw enough fans to support a 5th place teams payroll.

Yes, I'm just a disgruntled fan with unfair hindsight that's always 20:20.... But, I have seen both baseball, and bullshit. I think we Reds fans deserve more of the former and less of the latter, in regards to this team.

I know it's short sample size, but there are at least 4 Reds starting position players that appear to be lesser overall players than Peraza. Wanna bet he starts the season in the minors to get PT because they "don't have an everyday position" for him ? Who's at their peak trade value this year ? Zack Cozart...and he's still / always an injured player. Dan Straily ? He DID pitch well, comparatively. Think 6 teams were wrong and the REDS cured him ? I'd trade his ass before the paint starts falling off his shiny new paint job. If the Reds are going to keep paying Votto, Bailey and in the near term, Phillips, they have to start finding DuVall's and Straily's every year, and selling them for 2 more just a little better than them as soon as they look enticing to other teams. They won't be able to afford Hamilton or Duvall in 2019, if they have 2 more season just like this one unless the Cincinnati population doubles and the increase actually has jobs with discretionary income...or the Castellini's are planning on chipping in for $50M more a year in hobby funds.

 

[JohnU]

Without knowing what changes the team will make in personnel next winter, I am not at all happy with the idea that Iglesias and Lorenzen are apparently being penciled in to be the back end of the bullpen. I never believed bullpens should be built that way, though what came through camp in Goodyear smelled like bad fish.

Strailly is likely to get a 2-year deal.

I think the jury is out on Reed and Stephenson. Nobody knows about Lamb yet.

I gotta want Cingrani gone.

 

[JohnU]

Last Reds rookie to go 5-for-5

HALL OF FAMER FOR SURE

 

[Redsfan1507]

You shouldn't rebuild from the bullpen, unless you have a starting pitching staff that predominantly:
1. Can last more than 5 innings
2. Can get 200 innings in a season (default above unless you have a 4 man rotation that gets 40 starts each)
3. Average less than 4 walks per 9 innings, and / or no more than a hit an inning.
4. At least 3 of which can turn a tie or lead over to the pen.

Reds fail all above. Until they have a starting rotation with at least a couple pitchers that meet at least a couple of the criteria above, putting your best arms in the bullpen is stupid, if winning or even improving is the goal.

The Reds need:
1. starting pitching staff with at least 2 lefties, and 3 that can reasonably accomplish 3 of the first 4 above.

When they solve that one, with the budget they are working with, they can move on to other needs. They may need a 1b under 40 years old by then.

 

[JohnU]

I watched again tonight as 2 groover balls go into the seats and the leadoff guy keeps drawing a walk.
Now every so often, I expect that. What should not have been happening about 56 games ago was that it was still regularly happening.

Meanwhile Mac Jenkins waddles out to the mound and comes back just before the next round of crap. Not sure what Ted Power has been instructed to do in the bullpen but it's not much different from the other pitching "coaches" who have taken over this operation.

We need to find somebody who knows about pitching.

 

[eburg5000]

Stephenson hasn't been impressive sense he's came back. Neither was Reed. This makes me wonder how long will it be before these guys are ready to pitch in the big leagues. Tim Adleman might be the Reds 5th starter coming out of spring training next year. He's been the most consistent of the bunch of rookies thrown out there. But then again that's 6 months away. By then everything can change.

 

[JohnU]

Adleman will find work in the big leagues now.
Unlike a lot of guys who got a shot at it, he actually learned that being able to throw a strike really does matter.
Cingrani got the first guy out last night, and it was the first time in 10 hitters he had done that.
Seriously?
What exactly does Kevius Sampson get to prove now?

 

[eburg5000]

Reds have a good chance to be the worst team in the NL, I know some would want that, but Minnesota already has the worst record in baseball wrapped up. Az and Atlanta are both at 92 loses, Reds have 91, in the AL the Rays have 93, A's are at 91
Pending on The Cubs attitude, if they want to rest players and take it easy, or put the hammer down this weekend. Then Kris Bryant might want to try to set a record for homeruns and RBI's in a 3 game series.
Reds might not win another game.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think Adleman has positioned himself well with the Reds. He has two option years and is making league minimum for at least his next two MLB service years. Whether his role is in the rotation, long relief, or AAA depth, I think the Reds will be keeping him around. His future role will be partially dependent on younger guys higher on the depth chart failing, but he can help himself by continuing to perform well.

 

[JohnU]

I'd agree that if the Reds win 2 more to finish out, that would be extreme.
Either way, they will get a shot at one of the better draft choices in June.
That's sort of how the Royals and Parrots did it ... though it took 20 or 30 years for them. I don't think I am willing to wait that long.

We will have a lot of winter to evaluate this team moving forward but I am a little more optimistic on the baseline than maybe some others are. I do think we will see some movement to get a little more mound experience. Not clear on what the front office and the dugout staff thought they were going to get this year despite the ongoing "rebuild" bullshit that was another word for "cheap approach, inept planning."

 

[eburg5000]

I didn't watch the game last night, but I guess the umpires blew a call to end the game. Said that after the winning run scores, The manager only has 10 seconds to challenge. That's got to be one of the most ridiculous rules in baseball. The call doesn't effect the Reds that much, We Reds fans know the bullpen would have probably lost it anyway. But the Giants and Mets might be a little upset

 

[JohnU]

What bugs me is that the umpires have evidently decided that they will call whatever they want, right or wrong, and not care about it unless they are told to care about it. The so-called "let's get it right" bullshit is either part of their conversation or it's not. On that play, it was hard to tell, but they called Peraza out for being a hair off the bag the other night while the tag was on him. They were quite confident they could nail a play that close.

Yet on that one last night, they walked off the field without even saying, maybe there's a call we can correct. Price is right. The crew chief needs to be ridiculed but he won't be. They continually blow calls at first base on the one call that's the easiest in baseball to make.

The Giants got no bitch coming. They frittered away a 6-game lead in less than a month.