Early lines, divisional round....

[bengaldoug]

Saints -3 at San Fran total 47.5
Broncos at Patriots -14 total 51
Texans at Ravens -7.5 total 35.5(opened at 38)
Giants at Packers -9 total 51

Thoughts?

 

[kramer1]

Saints -3 at San Fran total 47.5
Broncos at Patriots -14 total 51
Texans at Ravens -7.5 total 35.5(opened at 38)
Giants at Packers -9 total 51

Thoughts?

Saints, OVER
Broncos, OVER
Ravens, OVER
Packers, OVER

 

[bengaldoug]

That's a damned low total on Texans/Ravens, isn't it?

 

[bengaldoug]

The Giants almost knocked off the Packers a few weeks ago. If yesterday's defensive performance was any indication, they could be tough again......

 

[kramer1]

That's a damned low total on Texans/Ravens, isn't it?

That's the one that jumped out at me the most.

Also, the Broncos and Steelers accounted for 52 points between them. So, the Patriots/Broncos game almost assuredly will achieve the over as well. Unless there's some really crappy weather that is. Clever line set at 51, though.

 

[bengaldoug]

That's the one that jumped out at me the most.

Also, the Broncos and Steelers accounted for 52 points between them. So, the Patriots/Broncos game almost assuredly will achieve the over as well. Unless there's some really crappy weather that is. Clever line set at 51, though.

Last time they played, Denver had like 170 yards rushing in the first quarter, and had an early lead.....don't think the Pats can do much about that, and no one can stop Brady, so yeah, 51 looks very doable......

 

[cincygrad]

I love the Saints with that line..... SF could easily be that young team that came from out of nowhere to grab a 2nd seed, but their youth is exposed in the playoffs. Plus, Alex Smith is their quarterback.

 

[bengaldoug]

I picked the Saints to win the Super Bowl, so no reason not to play them here.....

 

[cravnravn]

Ravens put up 38 on their own

Taking the Over

 

[bengaldoug]

Ravens put up 38 on their own

Taking the Over

Both teams have an average total of over 40, looks so easy it must be a trap....

 

[bengaldoug]

Using opponents points to construct a line, and limiting the Texans numbers to those after they lost Schwab, and Denver's to Tebow only, making other quarterback change related adjustments, here's the lines I came up with:

Saints -1 at San Fran total 50
Pats -16.5 over Denver total 54.5
Ravens -9 over Texans total 36.5
Packers -13 over Giants total 60

By those numbers the best value looks to be the Pack/Giants over

 

[cincygrad]

I have to pick winners. I have no over/under and can't tease any lines.... Here's what I'm working with

NO -4
Pack -9
Gay Purple Camo People -9
Belichecks -14

Who do you like?

 

[flamingrey]

NO -4
Texans +9
Pack -9
Tebow +14

in that order.

 

[DanBengalfan]

NO with the points, SF has been tested this season, but not as much as they shoulda been, they've played a lot of jabronis.

Pack -9, no doubt, Aaron Rodgers is a boss. Giants are good, but they are prone to "huh?" moments, and they are on the road in GB madness.

Ravens will run the ball often -9 is to big a spread, take Houston with the points, as they will run the ball quite a bit to set up Johnson.

Take Denver with the points. Everyone is looking at Brady to score 40+ points so that "Tebowmania" won't matter. It's not going to happen this time, Denver will run the ball successfully against NE and both teams will score, take Denver with the points. That's too many points.

 

[bengaldoug]

Nothing looks really strong to me -- the lines are solid

Gun to my head, Pack -9 I guess....I don't really have any faith in that, though....no sense pretending I have insights I don't have....


Too bad you can't get totals, I like the Pack/ Giants over pretty well, and the Broncs/Pats over pretty well....

 

[cravnravn]

San Fran
Pats
Ravens
G-Men

 

[bengaldoug]

San Fran
Pats
Ravens
G-Men

There are some trends that favor the Ravens and Packers...

1)Play against any playoff road underdog that won its last game by 20 or more points(Houston, Giants qualify as plays against). This play is 26-14-2 since 1985, a win rate of 65%.

2) Play against any playoff road underdog that covered its last game by 10 or more points (Houston, Giants, Denver all qualify as plays against.) This play is 55-35-2 since 1985, a win rate of 61.1%.

Some other interesting trends...

A) Play against any playoff team that scored at least 40 points in its previous game. The red hot Saints qualify as a play against here. This one has a record of 18-3 since 1996, or 85.7% ATS....pretty scary fading the red hot Saints, but hey, 18-3 is 18-3.....also notable that the Saints are 0-4 on the road in the playoffs and all their losses this season came on the road....food for thought.

B) Play against playoff favorites who have won at least 8 games straight. This one is 19-7 since 1985, or 73.1% ATS....once again fading the red hot Saints......


What I'm going to do with these is construct a teaser....4 teamer of the sweetheart variety again....

Baltimore +5.5
San Francisco +17
Green Bay +4
New England -1

I may also play a six team teaser adding the two overs.....a six team six point teaser would pay around 6/1 odds.....

 

[bengaldoug]

It's going to be cold in Baltimore tomorrow, which could be very rough on the Texans....think I'm going to make a straight bet on the ratbirds.....

 

[bengaldoug]

I need Green Bay -2.5 and over 47 in the last game to cash a six team teaser paying 6/1 odds.......Green Bay +4 brings home one sweetheart teaser, and over 40 brings home the other one.....