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Eagles / Giants Week 3

DutchBird

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DutchBird

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There are no analytics that say going for it on 4th and 8 at the 43 is a good idea. That's false.

See post above - there is analytics that says you do.

Also, you have to consider the situation. At that point in the game the Eagles were up 7-0, dominating time of possession and playing very well. There were 3 minutes left in the half and the Giants were moving the ball but in small chunks.

So, by punting and making them drive the field, their odds of either getting the ball back or going into halftime up 7-0 were quite high. Now, we went into halftime 7-0 in the end, but only after a tremendous goal-line stand by our defense, a play that should never have happened.

Wait a minute - if not for that sack (and that is on Wentz) the odds are Giants have to drive 20 more yards. With the way the defense had played up until that point, it makes no difference (Giants locked down). With the way the defense played from that drive onwards, it did not matter either as the Giants were able to drive the field pretty much with ease thereafter.
 

SixthStreet

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I can't believe we won this game with Maragos playing all those defensive snaps. Just pure highway robbery. This is a win you just shake your head at that you shouldn't have won because of the personnel you had on the field in the second half on D and bank it.

Hope we get healthier on D.
 

_phiLLies_

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Only on an eagles board can you come on and think we DIDNT just beat a division rival. You all are some fun mother fuckers.

We let them back in (as a team at this level is apt to do). But we stuck with it and pulled it out. Balls on the new kicker on that blast. That perservering and fighting to the end is what really matters with a squad where this one is at. Successful teams win the close games. And this team just put themselves at 2-0 in the division.

The rest is pointless blather at this point to me. Good win!!

a NFL season doesn't hang on one game. last year i was told to "shut up" when complaining about pederson's inconsistencies after the lions loss and how it's going to cost the eagles. why was i told to shut up? because the eagles were still 3-1 and barely lost that lions game.

the eagles then went 2-8 over their next 10 games. and then it was like "well, the eagles just aren't that good." off to a 2-1 start this season and it's basically the same thing. nothing has changed.. and fans are getting excited. that is, until pederson blows calls, the eagles lose some close games and they declare we need this and that in the draft.
 

Rey

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I thought we took a step in the right direction yesterday by establishing a running game. That will go a long way towards Defenses not being able to game plan against us by focusing just against defending our passing game. Wentz needs to start connecting on deep stuff better though ... missing a wide open Jeffery deep on what would have been a huge play; you have to hit that stuff to take the next step as a QB. I though the 2nd'ary played above their heads for "most" of the game before falling apart late ... I love what I've seen out of Rasual Douglas as a rook; his future is bright. Beckham broke through for 2 TD's, but going into the game I figured he would burn us for 150+ in the yardage department. We NEED to see more of WR Mack Hollins ... Torrey Smith is not an effective receiver unless he's going deep and does not run sharp routes.
 

DutchBird

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a NFL season doesn't hang on one game. last year i was told to "shut up" when complaining about pederson's inconsistencies after the lions loss and how it's going to cost the eagles. why was i told to shut up? because the eagles were still 3-1 and barely lost that lions game.

the eagles then went 2-8 over their next 10 games. and then it was like "well, the eagles just aren't that good." off to a 2-1 start this season and it's basically the same thing. nothing has changed.. and fans are getting excited. that is, until pederson blows calls, the eagles lose some close games and they declare we need this and that in the draft.
'

And here you are absolutely wrong. Completely. I guess in your eyes the only good coach is a coach that runs it 35 times a game, even if the O-line is a disaster and the RB's are mediocre at best and have to dodge defenders 3 yards deep in the backfield. At least he established the run...

I guess you still hold the belief that Andy set up Hunt's TD by establishing and staying with the run game... as some of the pundits still do (Brooks and the CSN guys for one, ugh).

Likewise that failed quick outs cannot set up successful other plays.

There is a difference between last year and this year, and positive. There were no egregious errors that I could see. How much the difference is remains to be seen for the rest of the season.

O yeah, and the funny thing is that the Giants defense focused on stopping the passing game; and that definitely aided in establishing the run. Second, the O-line as a whole did a much better job, especially when Wisniewski came in. But I guess that is irrelevant to the success of the running game as well.
 

Iggloo

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See post above - there is analytics that says you do.

The link CLEARLY states that it recommends punting on 4th and 8 from your opponent's 43. That was the situation!

Still waiting to see these analytics suggesting this was a recommended move. Here is a clue: they don't exist.
 

DutchBird

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The link CLEARLY states that it recommends punting on 4th and 8 from your opponent's 43. That was the situation!

Still waiting to see these analytics suggesting this was a recommended move. Here is a clue: they don't exist.

And thereafter I provided a link to a MORE RECENT calculation of the same model that clearly stated you should go for it,

here is a direct link to the Twitter feed:
The link you provided is three years old.
 

Northern Eagle

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I myself didn't agree with the 4th down call - we were stoning them all half and that gave them some life before the half, but a nice stop by our D to hold them to nothing. I also wished Pederson had stuck with Blount a bit longer since he had the hot hand - but at least he stuck with the run game overall for the most part, which is encouraging.

I thought the Giants game plan was really good to negate our pass rush, our secondary really stepped up overall outside of a couple of moments, but I liked our perseverance to come back after losing the lead - we need moments like these to show we can overcome adversity and still win a game, especially division games which are never easy. Great win yesterday.
 

Iggloo

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That's still a pretty weak point to back up your claim that all the analytics suggest this is a good move. No, they don't. The best you can find is one model from the New York Times, hardly a football expert.

Fact is, most NFL coaches don't go for it in that situation, for a reason: the odds of converting a 4th and 8 are extremely low.

Also, as I stated, you have to factor in the situation. The Eagles were winning and controlling the time of possession in the game. The Giants were losing and struggling to move the ball in large chunks, taking small completions because of their bad offensive line and what the Eagles were effectively giving them.

Put it all together, and having Donnie Jones punt the ball and force them to drive 80-90 yards was a no brainer. Thankfully, the mistake did not cost us a game.
 

DutchBird

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I myself didn't agree with the 4th down call - we were stoning them all half and that gave them some life before the half, but a nice stop by our D to hold them to nothing.

And it is fine if you disagree with that call - what I do not like is people acting like it was the most stupid thing in the universe to do.

I also wished Pederson had stuck with Blount a bit longer since he had the hot hand - but at least he stuck with the run game overall for the most part, which is encouraging.

Not sure why Blount was taken out at that point. Note though that Smallwood put up nearly identical numbers.

I thought the Giants game plan was really good to negate our pass rush, our secondary really stepped up overall outside of a couple of moments, but I liked our perseverance to come back after losing the lead - we need moments like these to show we can overcome adversity and still win a game, especially division games which are never easy. Great win yesterday.

Yup, the Giants game plan on offense was good, aided by the injuries on the Eagles before and during the game.

And for one the team coming back and making the plays in the end was good.


To me the interesting thing is to see what the offense can do going forward - noting how they played a pretty good defense today.
 

DutchBird

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That's still a pretty weak point to back up your claim that all the analytics suggest this is a good move. No, they don't. The best you can find is one model from the New York Times, hardly a football expert.

It is the EXACT same model you (or someone else) posted to show that analytics said NOT to go for it. The difference being that this model has been updated / modified / had more input over the past three years (and therefore now might show a different outcome)!

Fact is, most NFL coaches don't go for it in that situation, for a reason: the odds of converting a 4th and 8 are extremely low.

True. Though the potential benefits of converting that 4th down by and large outweigh the negative.

Also, as I stated, you have to factor in the situation. The Eagles were winning and controlling the time of possession in the game. The Giants were losing and struggling to move the ball in large chunks, taking small completions because of their bad offensive line and what the Eagles were effectively giving them. Put it all together, and having Donnie Jones punt the ball and force them to drive 80-90 yards was a no brainer. Thankfully, the mistake did not cost us a game.

You do realise that you are making the argument in favour of going for it, don't you?

Looking at TOP argument:

1) Punting: You give up possession and control of TOP. So the TOP can only swing against you. The likely net-difference between punting and going for it is about 20/25 yards on the field. With the way the defense was playing, that is not that much.

2) Going for it: If you do not make it, as far as controlling TOP there is no difference with punting. If you make it, you control TOP for even longer. If you take an actual deep shot, if it is an INT you have effectively the same result as a punt; if it is a catch or a DPI you have a new 1st down.

So you can only gain by going for it.



Driving the length of the field:

The defense had been suffocating the Giants anyway for the whole game. There is no reason to assume that this would be different whether the Giants start at their 10, their 20 or their 43 yard line, especially with the game plan they were using. If the defense is suffocating (as it was up until then), it is irrelevant what the start line is for the Giants; they will not go anywhere anyway. And if you do not make it, your defense has 30 yards to play with (which should be sufficient) before the Giants get into FG range.

The one thing that you COULD NOT DO is taking a sack or fumbling the ball on the snap. And taking a sack is what Wentz did, and he had no reason to do so. The way Wentz was looking in the pocket, it seems he was fixated on getting a deep ball off.
 

Iggloo

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If it was 4th and 2 in that situation, I could see going for it based on the points you make. But 4th and 8 is not completed very often. I think the odds are about one in seven. And the fact is, there is a risk of a sack anytime you drop back on 3rd or fourth and long. The fact that a sack is possible also has to be taken into account in considering what to do.
 

knowyourenemy

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And thereafter I provided a link to a MORE RECENT calculation of the same model that clearly stated you should go for it,

here is a direct link to the Twitter feed:
The link you provided is three years old.

What is that based on?
 

Iggloo

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It's a computer model that suggests what teams should do based on theory. It's not a reflection of what teams have historically done. The model is a provocative attempt to argue that NFL coaches are too conservative and should go for it on 4th down a lot more than they actually do.
 

knowyourenemy

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1) Punting: You give up possession and control of TOP. So the TOP can only swing against you. The likely net-difference between punting and going for it is about 20/25 yards on the field. With the way the defense was playing, that is not that much.

This is a complete garbage argument. If you punt it into the end zone, you gain 23 yards. We'd need to know percentages for Donnie Jones when punting in that situation. I doubt he punts 100% touchbacks, so we'd have to know what his average net punt is from that area and come up with a number. I think we're looking at closer to 30 yards than 20 yards. Maybe that's insignificant, maybe it isn't.

Driving the length of the field:

The defense had been suffocating the Giants anyway for the whole game. There is no reason to assume that this would be different whether the Giants start at their 10, their 20 or their 43 yard line, especially with the game plan they were using. If the defense is suffocating (as it was up until then), it is irrelevant what the start line is for the Giants; they will not go anywhere anyway. And if you do not make it, your defense has 30 yards to play with (which should be sufficient) before the Giants get into FG range.

Also a bad argument. The start line is not irrelevant. If the defense, as you say, was expected to smother the Giants then the Eagles could have reasonably expected to get the ball back with an opportunity to get into field goal range before the end of the half. Not far off from what actually happened at the end of the game except the Eagles would have had more time to mount a drive.

In the end, it doesn't matter. We won the game. I'm happy about that. But let's not pretend that it was a good decision for Pederson to go for it.
 

knowyourenemy

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And thereafter I provided a link to a MORE RECENT calculation of the same model that clearly stated you should go for it,

here is a direct link to the Twitter feed:
The link you provided is three years old.

Also, can anyone explain the seemingly random patches where you should go for it -- i.e. 4th and 3 from your own 5 yard line or 12 yard line but not from the 10 yard line or 20 yard line or 4th and 4 from your own 33.
 

DutchBird

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Also, can anyone explain the seemingly random patches where you should go for it -- i.e. 4th and 3 from your own 5 yard line or 12 yard line but not from the 10 yard line or 20 yard line or 4th and 4 from your own 33.

These are probably outlyers of the model (which is to be expected in fringe situations). And yeah, going for it from your own half unless you have to is IMHO a nono in the vast majority of cases.
 

knowyourenemy

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These are probably outlyers of the model (which is to be expected in fringe situations). And yeah, going for it from your own half unless you have to is IMHO a nono in the vast majority of cases.

So the model is flawed and we have no way of knowing if it's making the wrong recommendation in other scenarios?
 
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